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Due to the financial crisis and the drop in demand for oil it caused, talk of oil scarcity has mostly disappeared from the news, but the issue will not go away just because of a few years of lower demand.

The question is whether the crisis was the way "nature" found to make us use less of the oil, given that there isn't more to consume, and thus whether we'll run into new constraints as soon as growth attempts to resume. Oil prices at $70+ for the past year and a half would tend to support that worry. And in the meantime, China has grabbed an ever larger slice of the (shrinking) pie...

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 28th, 2010 at 05:33:55 AM EST
My perspective is that this crisis is a purchasing power transfer from the OECD to the so called emergent economies.

If economic growth does not resume promptly in the OECD, it will be the increasing demand from the emergent economies to hit the supply wall this time.

Vencit omnia veritas.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Tue Sep 28th, 2010 at 05:57:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The developing economies will out-bid us for oil, because (as has been demonstrated in the last couple of years) we can actually reduce our oil use in a discretionary way. At over a euro a litre, people are actively strategising to reduce their fuel use (and this is a good thing).

In developing economies, the rising cost of fuel is easy to pass on, so easier to absorb, even though the cost relative to incomes is actually higher.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Sep 28th, 2010 at 09:51:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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