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The puzzling success of trend-following investment strategies | Gavyn Davies | FT.com
Andrew Haldane is an economist at the Bank of England who writes some of the most interesting stuff available on the (mis)behaviour of the financial sector, and I recommend his recent speech on Patience and Finance. This argues that patience (or long-sightedness) is an economic virtue, the exercise of which should lead to faster GDP growth, higher returns to fund managers, and a sounder financial system. However, the part of his speech which I found most fascinating seemed to contradict this conclusion. This is an assessment of investment strategies which are based on momentum in asset prices, rather than long term economic fundamentals. Momentum wins the race hands down


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Sep 8th, 2010 at 04:33:20 PM EST
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Momentum wins the race hands down

Could that be due to allowing industry preferences rather than societal needs to set the incentive structure for the industry?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 8th, 2010 at 08:03:17 PM EST
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No, it's because traders have the collective intelligence of lemmings.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Sep 9th, 2010 at 08:16:45 AM EST
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Those observations are complementary.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Sep 9th, 2010 at 09:52:28 AM EST
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The success of trend-following is only a puzzle if you believe market prices follow random walks, possibly because you believe in the efficient market hypothesis.

By laying out pros and cons we risk inducing people to join the debate, and losing control of a process that only we fully understand. - Alan Greenspan
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Sep 9th, 2010 at 04:31:56 AM EST
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