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All revolutions are impossible, Leon Trotsky once said, until they become inevitable. That transformation was completed in a flash in Tunisia on Friday, as the country's authoritarian president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali fled the country in the face of a protest movement demanding jobs and democracy that violent repression had failed to quell. After trying to calm the nearly month-long protest wave by promising economic and political reform and democratic change, Ben Ali went a step further on Friday by dissolving his government and calling early parliamentary elections in six months. The rioting raged on, however, and by Friday afternoon he had declared a state of emergency. But reports from the streets of Tunis suggested that many soldiers and policemen had crossed over and embraced the protestors. And by day's end, news organizations were confirming that Ben Ali had fled the government, leaving the military and Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi in charge. But the nature of the political changes to come remains unclear -- one key difference between Tunisia and revolutions of the type envisaged by Trotsky was the fact that two decades of Ben Ali's relentless repression of political opposition has left few, if any, credible forces ready to step up run the country.
It appears the Prime Minister has declared himself interim president. How long will that last? It takes a broad movement in society to bring this kind of change about, not just rioting youth. Who has the upper hand and what do they want? At a rough guess, the bourgeoisie, and some form of liberal democracy. But at a rough guess.
talking round French support
= tiptoeing round the fact of past support
Today in El Pais there was an article talking about the risk of the West siding with the authoritarians.
Apparently the punditry has forgotten Europe's role in the Algerian civil war of the 1990s. Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
His family (including his wife, who owns most of the economy apparently) are in Canada.
(translations from Arab TV) It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
Very much a Twitter/Facebook/UTube revolution, on the ground.
Ben Ali buggered off when the Yanks told him to, it seems. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
Doesn't mean there will necessarily be one either, of course.
A local viewpoint from Magharebia By Adem Amine in Algiers and Jamel Arfaoui in Tunis
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) chief Abdelmalek Droukdel (aka Abou Moussaab Abdelouadoud) issued two audio recordings on Sunday (January 9th) addressing the Algeria riots and on-going demonstrations in Tunisia. "This media intervention could be read in two ways. The first is that AQIM wants to mobilise, and maybe even recruit, members among the protesters. We have indeed seen young Algerians travelling to Iraq to fight the allied forces. We have indeed heard young people asking for weapons to go and fight the Israeli army in Gaza and Southern Lebanon," said Mustapha Saidj, a politics professor at the University of Algiers. "The second interpretation is that this terrorist organisation is currently experiencing internal conflict. We have AQIM in the north and AQIM in the Sahel, and these two groups within this single organisation are experiencing frictions and a leadership struggle. But quite apart from all this, we must remember that there has been a major clean-up operation in Kabylie, AQIM's stamping ground in the north. This action is destined to have a psychological effect on what remains of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb," Saidj said. The professor added that "historically, al-Qaeda has always stepped in every time there has been an event which focuses the attention of the international media. Remember his recordings which came out on the occasion of attacks in Iraq and attacks by the Israeli army against Gaza. This intervention is intended to say that social unease, in Tunisia and Algeria alike, justifies their fight against the corrupt regimes running this or that country." The recordings are "one piece of a larger Islamist puzzle, which involves capitalising on discontent in the streets," according to University of Algiers lecturer Smail Maaraf. He stressed that the Islamists failed in their efforts to capitalise on the situation because they have not managed to repeat their coup of October 1988, when they showed themselves to be incredibly strong at mobilising the streets. "Their words no longer have any hold on society, which sees them as terrorists and cut-throats," Maaraf said, adding that Droukdel's intervention had little impact on society. "Young people today, those born after the 90s, tend to be tuned in more to foreign TV channels, or logged on to the internet, and they're much more interested in nice clothes or looking for places to have a good time," said the lecturer, explaining why the extremists' talk has lost its hold over the hearts of young people, whose attention is focused elsewhere.
"This media intervention could be read in two ways. The first is that AQIM wants to mobilise, and maybe even recruit, members among the protesters. We have indeed seen young Algerians travelling to Iraq to fight the allied forces. We have indeed heard young people asking for weapons to go and fight the Israeli army in Gaza and Southern Lebanon," said Mustapha Saidj, a politics professor at the University of Algiers. "The second interpretation is that this terrorist organisation is currently experiencing internal conflict. We have AQIM in the north and AQIM in the Sahel, and these two groups within this single organisation are experiencing frictions and a leadership struggle. But quite apart from all this, we must remember that there has been a major clean-up operation in Kabylie, AQIM's stamping ground in the north. This action is destined to have a psychological effect on what remains of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb," Saidj said. The professor added that "historically, al-Qaeda has always stepped in every time there has been an event which focuses the attention of the international media. Remember his recordings which came out on the occasion of attacks in Iraq and attacks by the Israeli army against Gaza. This intervention is intended to say that social unease, in Tunisia and Algeria alike, justifies their fight against the corrupt regimes running this or that country." The recordings are "one piece of a larger Islamist puzzle, which involves capitalising on discontent in the streets," according to University of Algiers lecturer Smail Maaraf. He stressed that the Islamists failed in their efforts to capitalise on the situation because they have not managed to repeat their coup of October 1988, when they showed themselves to be incredibly strong at mobilising the streets. "Their words no longer have any hold on society, which sees them as terrorists and cut-throats," Maaraf said, adding that Droukdel's intervention had little impact on society. "Young people today, those born after the 90s, tend to be tuned in more to foreign TV channels, or logged on to the internet, and they're much more interested in nice clothes or looking for places to have a good time," said the lecturer, explaining why the extremists' talk has lost its hold over the hearts of young people, whose attention is focused elsewhere.
"The second interpretation is that this terrorist organisation is currently experiencing internal conflict. We have AQIM in the north and AQIM in the Sahel, and these two groups within this single organisation are experiencing frictions and a leadership struggle. But quite apart from all this, we must remember that there has been a major clean-up operation in Kabylie, AQIM's stamping ground in the north. This action is destined to have a psychological effect on what remains of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb," Saidj said.
The professor added that "historically, al-Qaeda has always stepped in every time there has been an event which focuses the attention of the international media. Remember his recordings which came out on the occasion of attacks in Iraq and attacks by the Israeli army against Gaza. This intervention is intended to say that social unease, in Tunisia and Algeria alike, justifies their fight against the corrupt regimes running this or that country."
The recordings are "one piece of a larger Islamist puzzle, which involves capitalising on discontent in the streets," according to University of Algiers lecturer Smail Maaraf. He stressed that the Islamists failed in their efforts to capitalise on the situation because they have not managed to repeat their coup of October 1988, when they showed themselves to be incredibly strong at mobilising the streets.
"Their words no longer have any hold on society, which sees them as terrorists and cut-throats," Maaraf said, adding that Droukdel's intervention had little impact on society. "Young people today, those born after the 90s, tend to be tuned in more to foreign TV channels, or logged on to the internet, and they're much more interested in nice clothes or looking for places to have a good time," said the lecturer, explaining why the extremists' talk has lost its hold over the hearts of young people, whose attention is focused elsewhere.
Ah, the voice of "hope and change" (Jerome) again :-) Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
"bravo aux tunisiens qui peuvent etre fiers meme s'ils ont payé cher et a tout les autres partout ailleurs esperons que cela leur donnera des idees y compris en france"
Bravo to the Tunisians who can feel proud of themselves even if they have paid dearly and to others everywhere hoping that will give them ideas and that includes France. Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
Minister: "Young people no longer want to be poor in a rich country" President: "Would be the same thing for them in France" Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
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