2.5% less voters in 2011 than in 2008. And it was quite acrooss the board. Catalonia, Extremdaura, Rioja and valencia were the regions with a major drop. around 4%.

Making a simple projection, taking into account small movement in right-wing electorate we are talking about PSOE losing around 1.2 million votes.

If participation holds we are talking here a PP victory with 10.5 million votes and PSOE+IU parties around 10.5 million votes too. PP will win and complete majority depends on the distribution of votes. Remember that IU votes are heavily penalized given the law that distributes the seats in Spain http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D'Hondt_method

However the 190 seats seem unlikely unless we are observing a massive transfer of votes from PSOE to PP in catalonia and Andalucia. And I mean direct transfer.

It could happen.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude