It's the time of year when children begin to hope for a flurry of snowflakes to add a festive backdrop to the Christmas build-up - and judging by this morning's grim news from retailers, they'll be pleased that temperatures have started to plummet too. But Steve Nickell, of the Office for Budget Responsibility, has suggested someone else who should be praying for a White Christmas: George Osborne.

Appearing before MPs on the Treasury select committee, Nickell pointed out that heavy snowfall at the end of the year - following last year's pattern - could mean a sharp downturn in GDP, followed by an automatic bounce-back as activity returns to normal in the new year.

The OBR, which announced its forecasts alongside the chancellor's autumn statement last week, is now predicting that growth will be broadly flat between now and next autumn. But with the eurozone crisis hammering confidence, negative growth (as economists oxymoronically call it) looks increasingly likely for October to December.