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... insurrection is the location of oil facilities in Libya:

It seems to be free standing eastern and western complexes, and the offshore facilities tied to Tripoli via Az Zawiya to the west.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Feb 20th, 2011 at 12:56:52 PM EST
TNT, pump stations and pipelines in the control of insurgents?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 20th, 2011 at 03:11:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are two issues ... denial of resources and tapping resources. I'd guess that keeping some flow of oil going and bringing in revenue seems likely to come from holding Tripoli and Az Zawiya, but there are both opportunities to pump oil in the East and indeed a pipeline (can't tell if its gas or oil, I'm a little unclear on which lines are gas pipelines and which are oil pipelines) that crosses the border into Egypt.

I wouldn't guess it would come to an insurrection with a liberated territory spanning the eastern half of the country without the dictatorship falling. But the fact that its not possible to get a stranglehold on oil revenues from a small part in the northwest corner of the country could be part of accelerating a collapse.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Feb 20th, 2011 at 03:24:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, they could pump the stuff they control and blow up pipelines to destinations they don't control. But they would have to contend with air interdiction for any deliveries to the east, either attacks on pipelines and pump stations and it would obviously be unwise to send a ship to load crude from Bengazi or points east.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 20th, 2011 at 04:47:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, forcing the Libyan Air Force to destroy the facilities might in itself deny Libya the use of those oil supplies. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Feb 21st, 2011 at 12:31:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tweet:

[Al Jazeera] is talking to a Zuway tribal leader: he issued a warning that if the killing of Libyan isn't halted they'll stop the oil flow


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Sun Feb 20th, 2011 at 04:41:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... Libyan Air Force to take seriously ~ not only no fuel for their expensive toys but no replacement parts for their expensive toys if the country does not have oil revenue.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Feb 20th, 2011 at 07:41:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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