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Debt which was justified on the basis of the economic environment at the time of issue may cease to be justified at some point in the future.

Debt becomes bad when it becomes clear that future earnings will not retrospectively validate the valuations made at issue.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 08:38:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But then all the debt of the Irish State is bad debt. And it has to default on all of it or partially default on all of it.

So the foreign devils get only, say, 80% of their capital back and the true born Irish men too.

by IM on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 09:07:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not all debt is the same in terms of seniority. When a bank fails, the depositors gets paid first, then the bondholders in decreasing order of seniority of the bond (not of the creditor).

I agree discriminating on the basis of nationality will instantly run afoul of the EU courth of justice.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 09:12:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But are there really any bondholders left? or that many depositors? The capital of the (troubled) irish banks is now either ECB or irish government. The ECB has lent more  then 110 Pound sterling to irish banks according to your guardian source.
by IM on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 09:22:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The ECB has lent more  then 110 Pound sterling to irish banks

I assume you mean Billions. In any case, the Guardian claimed the exposure of foreign banks was 5 times that, as late as March 2010. So foreign banks still have an exposure of 400 billion.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 09:30:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The foreign exposure also "includes derivatives and other credit commitments", the seniority of which is not entirely clear to me.

Keynesianism is intellectually hard, as evidenced by the inability of many trained economists to get it - Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 09:31:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There shouldn't be any.  That's a private contract - I think but IANAL - between the bond holder and two or more parties.  The State should only perhaps, depending, guarantee the underlying bond.

The Neo-libs are always shouting the State should not interfere with private contracts so ... the State should not interfere and let the derivatives go south.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 01:30:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Irish state might have to deal with the negative consequences of derivatives to Irish institutions. But in general, yes, let those who made the bed lie in it.  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 11:18:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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