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The data is not good enough, not specific enough. Take the exposure of german banks. How much of the sum is

a) To the irish state
b) non bank lenders
c) irish banks
d) depfa

First you have to factor out depfa. A irish bank, yes, but owned by HRE, that is the Federal Republic now. The FRG wonm't default on it's self.

Then you have to subtract b). companies or private, thier creditworthiness will not be deiced by the irish government.

Now a) and c) can still be substantial. But is anybody really demanding a default on all government debt? If Ireland is defaulting o n c) tomorrow, will any foreign private creditors still be involved?

We need data on that.

by IM on Fri Feb 4th, 2011 at 09:44:31 AM EST
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