The bet here is that the political commitment to the EU and the combination of neoliberal and Austrian economics in the establishment will ensure that the EU doesn't break up and doesn't allow a default, preferring to go the IMF-style austerity route instead.

I wonder where the "no bondholder bail-ins before 2013" comes from. Is it that 2008-13 is a five-year period that they think a priori will allow banks to make their balance sheets whole to the point where they can take a default without blowing up?

Is it that by 2013 the banks will have offloaded all their debt onto the governments? Note that the EFSF is basically a way to replace unpayable maturing debt owed to "the market" with new debt owed to the EU Member States' treasuries. "The market" refuses to roll over the debt, so the EFSF does it for them.

Economics is politics by other means