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Yanis Varoufakis: "For whom the bells toll: Why the foretold Greek debt restructure will bring Spain into the mire which will, in turn, boost Ireland's pain":

...To put it simply, once Spanish sovereign debt (under the influence of the Spanish real estate sector bad debts) begins to scale the upper echelons of the 5 to 5.5 per cent range, and Spaniards join [Greeks and Irish] in shifting their savings to Germany and Holland, the periphery's Central Banks will end up owing the Bundesbank well over €500 billion. The ECB (aided and abetted by the Bundesbank - especially after Mr Trichet's departure) will start making loud noises about the need to switch off the tap that keeps the periphery's banks going, suggesting that they turn instead to the EFSF for much, much more expensive loans. At that point, the euro crisis will take a new, nastier turn.

Varoufakis is an economist working with others on a proposal for a resolution of the Eurozone crisis, but it seems, ehm, politically unfeasible at the moment...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 11th, 2011 at 07:30:33 PM EST
Good proposal by Varoufakis and Holland, but the problem remains of finding an appropriate governing structure for the issuer of European Bonds. The mechanism could likely solve the present problem, but would certainly be gamed and could lead to a bigger blow-up in a future round of crises.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Apr 13th, 2011 at 10:59:29 AM EST
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