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Though of course I have grown noticeably more pessimistic since then (was that really only five months ago?).
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
I find it hard to believe, however, that the EU could make that transformation so quickly, given that they are only now admitting to the systematic nature of the problems. One of the fault lines is the relative speed of national developments in Greece, Portugal and Spain (especially by the Greeks who are trying to re-make democracy for us all), compared with laden-tanker-like responses of the EU.
My bet, for what it's worth, would still be on Eurobond issuance and cobbling the thing together for this year.
We know roughly what would happen in the event of a Eurozone breakup - we've seen it all before (Iceland, Russia, Argentina, etc.).
We also know roughly what would have to happen to make the Eurozone not break up.
If I were a betting man, I'd give it around 50/50 odds.
It explains how the Japanese avoided a full blown recession while their asset prices fell by 87% after their bubble burst. And you've guessed it - the Japanese government spent and continued to spend while the private sector deleveraged and did not invest. The national deficit grew rapidly, but they didn't cut themselves into a great depression. In the process, various neo-classical articles of faith were shown not to hold in a time of asset-bubble hangover deflation.
Precisely the opposite of the ECB/IMF prescription.
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