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Looking through the latest round of EU GDP data, one thing is becoming increasingly obvious: when it comes to future monetary policy decisions at the ECB, and to exactly how many more interest rate hikes we are going to see, then the performance of the Italian economy is going to be critical. The growth pattern now is clear enough: Germany and France move forward at a lively pace, while the so called "peripheral" economies (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) either remain in or continually flirt with recession. They are constrained by the combined burden of their lack of international competitiveness, their over-indebtedness and the contractionary impact of their austerity programmes.
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