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Hard money or "gold-standard" thinking is just too attractive, too easy a sound bite - likewise the notions of economics as morality play fit too conveniently with the history of Western religious thought.
Running government finances like a virtuous, prudent household is just too powerful a meme.
Further of course, until it is in the interests of the finance sector to give up on the government bond kabuki, we'll be continually confronted by a wave of propaganda about it.
Any volunteers?
It's an impossible problem, in its own terms. I think you can only really remove the meme by creating worker-run corporations which give everyone as many people as possible experience of economic democracy. Then the existing meme becomes outdated and irrelevant.
You have to create the experience first, and then tell the story about it. It's difficult to go the other way.
Interesting story, little told here in the U.S. More information wanted.
Interesting story, little told here in Europe. More information wanted. Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
The Constitutional Council presented the Speaker of Althingi, Mrs. Ásta Ragnheidur Jóhannesdottir, with the bill for a new constitution in Idnó, today. The bill was unanimously approved by all delegates, at the last meeting of the Council, on Wednesday 27 July 2011. The bill assumes that from now on, changes to the constitution will be submitted to a vote by all who are eligible to vote in Iceland, for either approval or rejection. All delegates agree that the population should be given the chance to vote on the new constitution before Althingi's final vote on it. In the case of ideas arising to make changes to the bill prepared by the Constitutional Council, the delegates of the Council declare themselves ready to revert to the matter before a national referendum is held.
But after the eurozone fragments - a bigger scale crisis - and there's a couple of fascist governments back in Europe, then maybe we'll be getting somewhere...
Or maybe not - after all, even now I hear people telling me that the problem in the UK is "too much regulation and too much public spending/debt stifling the private sector..."
This is not to nag on dates, just to notice that things can change quite fast. Think 1930s. Like, say, Spain in the 30s speed of change.
The older generations mostly have exclusively national formative experiences. Economics is politics by other means
When Complex societies collapse - as ours appears to be doing - they simplify. Areas that supported hundreds of thousands or millions pre-collapse only support hundreds or thousands post-collapse.
Or none, as in the case of Chaco Canyon.
This is based on non-industrialized societies and we've only seen one system cascade collapse of an industrial society: The Great Depression.
But we've never seen a cascade collapse with systematic multi-feedback loops, e.g., such as a collapse of global food production causing a collapse of raw resource extraction in Africa, etc., causing a collapse of First World manufacturing.
The nearest I can come to it, others may be able to shed more light than I, was the collapse of the Celtic oppida in the Second and First BC. In that time a relatively high degree of urbanization across Europe quickly collapsed, wrecking large scale manufacture (of fibulae, among other things), causing a localization of manufacturing and other economic activity. They didn't lose their technology, per se, but they did lose the mass-market and other economic networks that made widespread, large scale, urbanization possible. Towns still existed but they reverted to a lower scale of influence and depopulated. Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
But we've never seen a cascade collapse with systematic multi-feedback loops, e.g., such as a collapse of global food production causing a collapse of raw resource extraction in Africa, etc., causing a collapse of First World manufacturing. The nearest I can come to it, others may be able to shed more light than I, was the collapse of the Celtic oppida in the Second and First BC.
The nearest I can come to it, others may be able to shed more light than I, was the collapse of the Celtic oppida in the Second and First BC.
The collapse of British hegemony in the first two decades of the previous century, and the resulting rollback of international trade in the Interbellum.
While industrial society as a whole did survive that experience (albeit a couple of hundred million of its inhabitants and half the global capital plant poorer), it was entirely too close a shave for me to feel sanguine about its repetition.
- Jake Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.
Mr Understatement has spoken. :p Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
In statements to Europa Press, the Madrid PP Secretary General has denounced that "300 indignants are affecting the life of over 3 million inhabitants" of a city like Madrid. And, against that number of demonstrators, he pointed out that in this region only the PP has over 90 thousant members. "I hope the Government delevate, Dolores Carrión, doesn't object to us demonstrating, because then it would be a clear comparative grievance", he added.
In particular, Keynes was not particularly concerned with inflation.
But, more importantly, in the 1970s there were a number of financial crises that were successfully contained by means of government intervention even as the economy spent a decade in crisis. But by discrediting government intervention we then spent 20 years removing the ability of the government to contain financial crises, as well as filling the civil service and international functionanriat with neoliberals who believe the market will provide...
Another idea of the 1970s which was immediately discredited was The Limits to Growth, which turned out to be pretty much on the mark. Economics is politics by other means
But, more importantly, in the 1970s there were a number of financial crises that were successfully contained by means of government intervention even as the economy spent a decade in crisis.
Perhaps, but did they know what they were doing? I'm skeptical.
Stagflation is the simplest form of inflation. It is caused by rising (economic) rent. And there is a very simple and quick fix to it. Rent tax. (But you don't find this in any textbook.)
OPEC - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Long-term oil Prices, 1861-2007 (orange line adjusted for inflation, blue not adjusted).
If they go all the way to demand destruction pricing, you can eat their markup by imposing taxes on the raw material in question. You will still have high prices and attending issues for your industrial production, but you won't be hemorrhaging hard currency.
In the particular historical case of the '70s, the primary causes of the growth slowdown were (a) increasing demand drain from deteriorating foreign balance between The WestTM and raw materials producing countries (principally OPEC) and (b) the end of the rebuilding of the European capital plant destroyed by the world wars.
The growth slowdown created a distributional problem, because the Fordist political economy's distributional policies were based on high real growth rates. Inflation followed from the failure to resolve this distributional conflict. Inflation was firmly and finally arrested when the distributional conflict was resolved by breaking the labour side's power to sustain the conflict.
This is a bad movie and we have, of course, seen it before. You may recall that in 1960 the Uncle of, as it happens, of Larry Summers, co-invented a concept called the Phillips curve, stipulating on very weak empirical evidence and no clear theory the relationship between the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation. True Keynesians, including my teacher, Nicholas Kaldor, Joan Robinson, Robert Eisner, a great hero of mine, and my father were appalled. The construct was doomed to collapse and when it did, after 1970, the school that most people thought of as Keynesian was swept away in the backwash. Today, the failure behind the recovery forecast is conflated with the failure of the stimulus itself and the same thing is happening again. Those who failed most miserably to forewarn against the financial crisis have, as a consequence, regained their voices as scourges of deficits and public debt. There is a chorus of doom as those who once thought the new paradigm could go on forever are now inveighed against living beyond our means and foretell federal bankruptcy and the collapse of the dollar and the world monetary system amongst other scary fairy tales. This includes such luminaries as the leadership of the International Monetary Fund and of all things, the analytical division of Standard and Poor's -- an enterprise on which one might hope at least a small amount of modesty might have developed or devolved in the wake of recent events. It would be pathetic if it were not so dangerous. But the fact is, these forces are moving down a highway which has been cleared of obstacles by the retreat, indeed the destruction of the False Keynesian position.
Today, the failure behind the recovery forecast is conflated with the failure of the stimulus itself and the same thing is happening again. Those who failed most miserably to forewarn against the financial crisis have, as a consequence, regained their voices as scourges of deficits and public debt. There is a chorus of doom as those who once thought the new paradigm could go on forever are now inveighed against living beyond our means and foretell federal bankruptcy and the collapse of the dollar and the world monetary system amongst other scary fairy tales. This includes such luminaries as the leadership of the International Monetary Fund and of all things, the analytical division of Standard and Poor's -- an enterprise on which one might hope at least a small amount of modesty might have developed or devolved in the wake of recent events.
It would be pathetic if it were not so dangerous. But the fact is, these forces are moving down a highway which has been cleared of obstacles by the retreat, indeed the destruction of the False Keynesian position.
We've got to be good at something.
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