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Did you assume a crisis lasting 4 years, with no end in sight, in August 2007?

If not, it might not be an outlandish stress test to take your 3-5 years and double them. In which case you're looking at possibly 10 years.

Without having to bring up the Great Depression, the 1970s crises also spanned ~10 years.

With the current economic conventional wisdom I can't see how we can avoid at least another 5 years of stagnation.

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Aug 14th, 2011 at 03:16:56 PM EST
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