Welcome to the new version of European Tribune. It's just a new layout, so everything should work as before - please report bugs here.
Display:
A sufficiently substantial (and, more to the point, sufficiently rapid) deterioration of the terms of trade would be quite painful enough that you would want to avoid it.

- Jake

Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Aug 16th, 2011 at 01:57:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How much disruption is caused if the US dollar drops in value, say, by 50% on a trade weighted basis ... and how much disruption is caused if the US$ is not accepted as payment ... are two categorically different questions.

In the latter case, you are talking about 2/3 of US petroleum supply no longer arriving, except on barter terms or by diverting funds from exports that have earned hard currency.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Aug 16th, 2011 at 06:50:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Whereas in the former, petroleum prices only go up by something on the order of 100 %.

Which couldn't possibly cause riots.

- Jake

Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Aug 17th, 2011 at 04:03:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Precisely. We've had gas prices double several time in the past forty years, and it never caused widespread rioting. Recessions, sure, but not riots.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Aug 17th, 2011 at 07:00:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series