The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
Or a severe currency crash. Y'know, whichever comes first.
- Jake Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.
[Emphasis added]
The potential for a debt spiral is very real, as any deterioration in the economy causes the HUF to weaken further, creating a negative feedback loop with Swiss Franc loans and further deterioration in non-performing loans. With another peak in gross government re-financing coming next year amounting to about 20% of Hungarian GDP, and the foreign debt burden denominated in HUF worsening, the markets are watching closely. Interestingly, the Swiss themselves weren't foolish enough to do any of this lending. [!] Austrian banks provided about 40% of CHF loans in the euro-zone. And between 15-25% of the balance sheets of the top four Greek banks are exposed to SE Europe, including almost 40% and 30% of loans to the private sector in Bulgaria and Romania respectively, according to Macquarie Bank. In turn, German, French and other northern European banks are heavily exposed to Greece. No wonder then, that the EU fears the chain reaction which would ensue from a Greek default.
Interestingly, the Swiss themselves weren't foolish enough to do any of this lending. [!] Austrian banks provided about 40% of CHF loans in the euro-zone. And between 15-25% of the balance sheets of the top four Greek banks are exposed to SE Europe, including almost 40% and 30% of loans to the private sector in Bulgaria and Romania respectively, according to Macquarie Bank. In turn, German, French and other northern European banks are heavily exposed to Greece. No wonder then, that the EU fears the chain reaction which would ensue from a Greek default.
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
I'm beginning to think there are two scenarios:
#1 is not even within shouting distance of the Overton window.
The problem is that central bankers are idiots and didn't do their job properly. Moreover, they used the EU's free movement of capital for cover:
"There is nothing we can do to stop foreign exchange borrowing, and we don't even try. As members of the European Union, we have to respect the free flow of capital," he [Hamezc Istvan, director of Hungary's Central Bank] said.
by Migeru - Jun 15 39 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 17 20 comments
by Katrin - Jun 12 88 comments
by Jerome a Paris - Jun 9 68 comments
by DoDo - Jun 9 22 comments
by Zwackus - Jun 11 64 comments
by Metatone - Jun 8 4 comments
by Ted Welch - Jun 3 1 comment
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 1720 comments
by Migeru - Jun 1539 comments
by Katrin - Jun 1288 comments
by DoDo - Jun 1126 comments
by Zwackus - Jun 1164 comments
by Jerome a Paris - Jun 968 comments
by DoDo - Jun 922 comments
by Metatone - Jun 84 comments
by DoDo - Jun 671 comments
by DoDo - Jun 418 comments
by Ted Welch - Jun 31 comment
by gmoke - Jun 211 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 3113 comments
by A swedish kind of death - May 3113 comments
by ceebs - May 2927 comments
by ARGeezer - May 2915 comments
by Zwackus - May 271 comment
by DoDo - May 2631 comments
by DoDo - May 2346 comments
by Metatone - May 1490 comments