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[Emphasis added]

The potential for a debt spiral is very real, as any deterioration in the economy causes the HUF to weaken further, creating a negative feedback loop with Swiss Franc loans and further deterioration in non-performing loans.  With another peak in gross government re-financing coming next year amounting to about 20% of Hungarian GDP, and the foreign debt burden denominated in HUF worsening, the markets are watching closely.

Interestingly, the Swiss themselves weren't foolish enough to do any of this lending. [!] Austrian banks provided about 40% of CHF loans in the euro-zone. And between 15-25% of the balance sheets of the top four Greek banks are exposed to SE Europe, including almost 40% and 30% of loans to the private sector in Bulgaria and Romania respectively, according to Macquarie Bank.  In turn, German, French and other northern European banks are heavily exposed to Greece. No wonder then, that the EU fears the chain reaction which would ensue from a Greek default.


I'm beginning to think there are two scenarios:

  1.  Everybody gets together and writes off and offsets their debt, one to another, to reduce the mutual plunder via interest payments to a realistic level

  2.  A cascade failure ripples through the system and everyone's FIRE sector goes bye-bye

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Aug 16th, 2011 at 02:35:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The entire continent is run by EPP or, at the very best, the Quisling wing of the PES.

#1 is not even within shouting distance of the Overton window.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Aug 16th, 2011 at 02:48:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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