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Hmm, I forgot the scare quotes around "centre-left".

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 02:53:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Certainly the party political scene, in the event of a eurozone blow-up, would be pretty horrible for some time. But what can't be done in terms of "balancing the books", won't be, any more than the Maastricht Criteria 3 and 60 -- though binding on signatories at a high legal level -- have not been and are not observed, including by Germany.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 03:11:46 AM EST
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But this observation does not tell you that sanity will prevail in the end. It is also possible that the right wing wins, which will create an endless string of currency crises for the IMF and its assorted EU clones to "resolve," in a manner that will seem highly familiar to any Latin American expatriates living in Iberia at the time.

Eventually, matters will come to a head and a stable resolution will be found. Unfortunately, installing some pliable tin-pot dictator who rounds up dissidents in football stadiums is one form of "stable resolution."

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 03:24:59 AM EST
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Re: The Gleichschaltung of Spain (4.00 / 2)

You're quite right, it doesn't tell you what might happen in the end, though repeated currency crises could happen with or without the constitutional amendment. Or, if we assume the right chose to practise the politique du pire, they wouldn't need to call on the constitutional amendment to shrink the state and destroy redistributive policies, thus creating social unrest and leading to a football stadium "stable resolution". And, unfortunately, the PP seems animated by pretty shadowy intentions.

A great deal depends on the extent to which, among the Spanish people as a whole, the C20 history of Spain, starting from the 1930s, is now felt to be a closed book - or, to the contrary, is still unresolved and therefore alive. The right has certainly been pushing the latter term. Which is more worrying, imo, than the constitutional amendment.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 04:34:57 AM EST
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Zapatero himself is proof positive that the C20 history of Spain, starting from the 1930s ... is still unresolved and therefore alive. His Law of Historical Memory is, appraised coldly, a Law of damnatio memoriae. Judge Baltasar Garzon was banished from the judicial profession for daring to open a case on Franco's crimes against humanity. The digging up of mass graves from the Civil War continues to be a contentious issue. And just like Thatcher's tories managed to insert into the British conventional wisdom the lie that Britain is no longer a class-based society, the PP and its sociological and voter base are convinced that the wounds of C20 are closed and Zapatero has reopened them, while most of the left is aware that the wounds were never closed. But, IMHO, damnatio memoriae is not the way to go and it is not even feasible since the heirs of Franco have not been defeated to the point where you can apply damnatio memoriae.

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 05:58:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"Thatcher's tories managed to insert into the British conventional wisdom the lie that Britain is no longer a class-based society"

When people commend the British humour as the master of the absurd, I believe they are referring to that.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 06:21:31 AM EST
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That appraisal, then, is very worrying.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 07:16:55 AM EST
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Re: The Gleichschaltung of Spain (4.00 / 2)

See this from The Guardian: Spain's World Youth Day has little to do with Catholicism

The church no longer dictates how people live - but its success in lobbying Spain's government should not be underestimated
...
The issue is power, and the Spanish church has an awful lot of it, but it lies somewhere else. Its kingdom is of this world. As a reaction to secularisation, the church has become an American-style political lobby, which no longer shepherds souls but votes. With its radio and TV stations and its vast network of schools and universities, it shapes the conservative political camp. It is its ability to deliver busloads of school children to Madrid that makes rightwing demonstrations possible and massive.
...
And this is what World Youth Day was about: the joy of triumph and the anticipation of more concessions to come from the next government. Journalists scrutinised the long and repetitive speeches of the pope as if they were all about theology, but they weren't. The medium is the message. The message is the massive presence, like a seraphic version of the International Brigades, of the Catholic church on the streets of Spain, the old faithful country gone astray.

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 10:25:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Or, if we assume the right chose to practise the politique du pire, they wouldn't need to call on the constitutional amendment to shrink the state and destroy redistributive policies

But that is not the point. The point is that the right can call upon the constitutional amendment to enlist the power of the courts against any left-wing restoration effort.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 08:38:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Constitutional literalism again. What matters more, as I've said elsewhere, is the balance of power, the ideological climate, the extent to which the people are willing or not to enter into serious conflict. Which is why what Migeru says just above is more worrisome than a constitutional court.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 09:16:16 AM EST
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I am talking about the balance of power.

Specifically, whatever power the courts hold has now been firmly wedded to a far-right agenda, until such time as it is possible to restore the constitution or stage a coup d'etat.

And since the insane far-right holds a blocking minority against restoration...

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 10:58:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

afew:

A great deal depends on the extent to which, among the Spanish people as a whole, the C20 history of Spain, starting from the 1930s, is now felt to be a closed book - or, to the contrary, is still unresolved and therefore alive. The right has certainly been pushing the latter term. Which is more worrying, imo, than the constitutional amendment.

IMO, the constitutional amendment is more worrying BECAUSE the right has been pushing issues that keep their interpretation of "the wounds of C20" alive. It is beginning to appear that the death of Franco was more of a stragegic detante accepted by the right in recognition that they could no longer govern with such adamant defiance of others than a real victory by the left. The right may well have just been biding its time until they had the opportunity to tar the left with some bogus smear and reclaim dictatorial power. Chile may be further along in dealing with the legacy of Pinochet than is Spain in dealing with the legacy of Franco.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 01:42:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

When a dictator dies in bed it's never a victory for the opposition.

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 03:47:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Franco's death was likely more a "victory" for Juan Carlos than for "socialism".

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Aug 30th, 2011 at 04:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's possible that the key turning point was the death of Luis Carrero Blanco.

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 31st, 2011 at 02:18:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Thinking about it (4.00 / 2)

it's probable that ETA were democracy's useful idiots. They were presumably counting on repression creating a backlash etc, creating a situation where secession would be possible.

But by undermining the viability of the regime after Franco, they prepared peaceful regime change.

I remember my joy when I read the news about Blanco. It sort of side-tracked me politically for a while.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Wed Aug 31st, 2011 at 05:38:03 AM EST
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Salta Franco, salta como o Carrero Blanco.

Jump Franco, jump like Carrero Blanco.

"Jump" being more of a... boom.

Was this said in Spain? In Portugal I am sure it was.

by cagatacos on Wed Aug 31st, 2011 at 07:57:22 AM EST
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