The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
We don't know what the "effective dimensionality" of the network of credit relations in the economy is, and it might even depend on other factors.
What we do know is that for any dimension there is a pc, that is, that regardless of the structure of the financial system, for sufficiently high densities (how high depends on the details of the financial system) of "ponzi-financing economic units" the probability that there is a system-wide cluster of such units linked together by credit relations approaches 1. And then the probability of systemic crises is high since all that needs to happen is for one of the ponzi units in the cluster to go belly up.
That's all. I don't expect that estimating pc is possible given plausibly available information.
But there's more. The system will naturally tend towards a pc density of ponzi units, because at lower densities we have Minsky's natural tendency towards increasing leverage in stable times, and at higher densities crises quickly decompose existing clusters by, through bankruptcy, eliminating ponzi sites.
So after a fairly long period of financial stability one can be pretty confident the economy will be in the critical phase of the percolation system. Economics is politics by other means
What we do know is that for any dimension there is a pc, that is, that regardless of the structure of the financial system, for sufficiently high densities (how high depends on the details of the financial system) of "ponzi-financing economic units" the probability that there is a system-wide cluster of such units linked together by credit relations approaches 1.
HA! Good job guys.
I assume you're preparing for publication? Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
by DoDo - May 23 41 comments
by Nomad - May 10 14 comments
by JakeS - May 15 7 comments
by Metatone - May 14 85 comments
by ARGeezer - May 16 15 comments
by gmoke - May 17 2 comments
by DoDo - May 12 11 comments
by Migeru - May 6 100 comments
by ARGeezer - May 241 comment
by DoDo - May 2341 comments
by gmoke - May 172 comments
by ARGeezer - May 1615 comments
by JakeS - May 157 comments
by Metatone - May 1485 comments
by DoDo - May 1211 comments
by Nomad - May 1014 comments
by Migeru - May 78 comments
by marco - May 782 comments
by Migeru - May 6100 comments
by Ted Welch - May 35 comments
by afew - May 341 comments
by ceebs - May 26 comments
by gmoke - Apr 301 comment
by Frank Schnittger - Apr 3067 comments
by joelado - Apr 2954 comments
by Metatone - Apr 2854 comments
by ATinNM - Apr 275 comments
by ceebs - Apr 265 comments