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Eurointelligence Daily Briefing: Euro crisis creeps into France
Three French banks lose more than 10% of their market value, facing an erosion of their equity base; investors are concerned about the effects of an increasingly probable Greek default, and lack of G7 policy action; French stock market is now down to the depth of the 2009 recession; US money market funds have cut their holdings of CDs issued by French banks by 40%
That's Certificates of Deposit, not CDS. In other words, a bank run.
Germany's economics minister says Greece will default, triggering Angela Merkel's scorn; Alexander Hagelüken says official talk of a Greek default was irresponsible; the Greek government adopted a partial payment freeze, that excludes salaries and pensions; the ECB bought €14bn in bonds last week, bringing the total programme to €143bn; Francois Baroin cautiously endorses eurobonds; only four EU countries will have deficits of below 3% in 2012; IMF releases second tranche of the loan to Portugal; Wolfgang Proissl calls on the Bundesbank to give up its dissident role; eurozone finance ministers will finalise the EFSF guidelines at the informal meeting this week; Germany borrows at rates close to zero, while Spain is fretting about another high-interest rate bond auction; Giulio Tremonti, meanwhile, is holding talks with Chinese officials about strategic investments to stabilise the country's position in the eurozone.


Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 13th, 2011 at 03:52:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wolfgang Proissl, Financial Times Deutschland, ex-Yale World Fellow and ex-Brueghel thimk-tank taking the Buba to task?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Sep 13th, 2011 at 04:31:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Shorter Proissl: if you can't beat them, join them.
Wolfgang Proissl calls on the Bundesbank to give up its dissident role in the eurozone

In a commentary in Financial Times Deutschland, Wolfgang Proissl calls on the Bundesbank to give up its dissident role if it wants to regain relevance within the Eurosystem. The German central bank must realize that it is isolated with its rejection of the ECB's bond purchasing program and that it has failed to leave its mark on important eurozone decisions throughout the crisis. The Bundesbank will only be able to regain influence if it re-engages with the other central banks, financial market actors and politicians in order to form coalitions. Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann and Jörg Asmussen, the designated successor for the ECB chief economist Jürgen Stark, are both experienced political dealmakers and should be in good position give the Bundesbank an new start.

This is a very peculiar situation in which the ECB is zealously keeping to the straight and narrow path defined by the Bundesbank in the 1990s
According to Trichet, the ECB has performed with flying colors since the birth of the euro as a "fiercely independent" institution divorced from the whims of EU governments -- even during what he calls "the worst crisis since WWII."

"We have delivered price stability over the first 12 years and 13 years of the euro -- impeccably, impeccably," Trichet emphasized. "I would like very much to hear the congratulations for an institution which has delivered price stability in Germany" at a level which is "better than what has ever been obtained in this country over the last 50 years."

He also called controversial interest rate hikes earlier this year "appropriate" given the inflationary situation at the time, although he announced that the ECB now sees inflation risks as balanced.

(with video)

while at the same time the Bundesbank believes the sky is about to fall on our collective heads because of the supposedly recklessly inflationary policies of the ECB, while people to the left of the so-called-Socialdemocrat Social Liberals scream bloody murder about neohooverism, deflation and depression.

Economics is politics by other means

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 13th, 2011 at 04:36:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you make of stronger inflation in France and the UK?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Sep 13th, 2011 at 05:35:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK is not in the Eurozone.

As for France, what stronger inflation do you speak of?

Annual inflation (%) in July 2011 in ascending order
Euro area
IE 1.0
SI 1.1
EL 2.1
FR 2.1
IT 2.1
MT 2.2p
Euro area 2.5p
DE 2.6
NL 2.9p
ES 3.0
PT 3.0
LU 3.2
CY 3.5
FI 3.7
AT 3.8p
SK 3.8
BE 4.0
EE 5.3
(Eurostat press release [PDF] of 17 August 2011)

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 13th, 2011 at 05:50:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you subtract (as is only sensible):

  • the VAT rise
  • imported energy costs

from UK inflation, there's not much left to panic about...
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Sep 13th, 2011 at 06:56:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Makes sense for the UK. But Bloomberg had an article highlighting strong inflation for August in both countries, FR was 3.x, UK 4.x.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Sep 13th, 2011 at 07:45:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Could be important... but at the same time, monthly figures are notoriously volatile (and prone to revision...)
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Sep 13th, 2011 at 07:59:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They are year-on-year figures.

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 13th, 2011 at 08:05:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg: U.K. Inflation Accelerates to 4.5%, Meets Estimates as Clothes Prices Jump
Consumer prices rose 4.5 percent from a year earlier, the fastest in three months, compared with 4.4 percent in July, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. That matched the median estimate of 34 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. A separate report showed exports and imports rose to record levels in July.
Srsly.
French Inflation

On the month, consumer prices climbed 0.6 percent in August, the statistics office said. Clothes prices jumped 3.7 percent, a record for August, while household utility costs rose 0.5 percent.

The end of summer sales also boosted prices in France, according to separate data published today. Its inflation rate rose to 2.4 percent, the highest in almost three years, from 2.1 percent in July, national statistics office Insee said.

Srsly2

Economics is politics by other means
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 13th, 2011 at 08:04:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and so what if clothes go up 3-4%? with global warming they won't need so many!
/snark

The power of knowledge is in mortal combat with the knowledge of power. It really is that simple... That's the Edenic apple we are all munching on.
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Sep 13th, 2011 at 08:14:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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