Phil Hogan warns: No terrorist in the Aras - National News - Independent.ie

Excluding the Don't Knows, the poll shows: Michael D Higgins (27 per cent), David Norris (20 per cent), Sean Gallagher (13 per cent), Mary Davis (12 per cent), Martin McGuinness (11 per cent), Gay Mitchell (10 per cent) and Dana Rosemary Scallon (7 per cent).

For the first time the 500 people polled nationwide were also asked for their second preference: analysis shows that Mr Higgins is by far most the most transfer friendly candidate, which presents a conclusion that the election is his to lose.

For example, according to the poll, Mr Higgins will win the second preferences of supporters of Ms Davis (29 per cent), Mr Gallagher (27 per cent), Mr McGuinness (23 per cent), Mr Mitchell (28 per cent), Mr Norris (45 per cent) and Dana Rosemary Scallon (22 per cent).

At 20 per cent overall support, Mr Norris also performs reasonably well on second preference votes in the poll, but at this early stage he is short of the level of support required to mount a serious challenge to Mr Higgins.

A 500 respondent poll has a MOE of +/- 6% so one shouldn't read too much into the figures, however at least the Sindo - unlike Reuters - does not make the mistake of comparing this poll with a previous poll taken when the  field of candidates had not even been finalised. The story itself is a pretty desperate attempt by Fine Gael to revive the fortunes of its candidate, Gay Mitchell, by talking up the "terrorist in the park" factor and mobilising their own base.  Typically, in Irish politics, such a campaign ends up damaging their own candidate and helping a third party - in this case Michel D. Higgins - who has not engaged in such tactics.


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