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by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 25th, 2012 at 12:17:40 PM EST
Most people remain 'unconcerned' by demographic change: theparliament.com
A new Eurobarometer survey shows that 71 per cent of Europeans are aware that Europe's population is getting older.

However, it goes on to say that only 42 per cent are concerned about this development.

This, it says, is in "stark contrast" with the perceptions of policymakers, who regard demographic ageing as a major challenge.

For most citizens who were surveyed, people aged 55 years and older are considered to play a major role in key areas of society.

Over 60 per cent believe that the public should be allowed to continue working after retirement age and one third says that they would like to work longer themselves.

People closer to retirement are more likely to share this view than the younger generation.

The survey comes as the EU last week launched the 2012 European year of active ageing and solidarity of generations.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 25th, 2012 at 12:46:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It would help if governments understood this and stopped encouraging companies to make people redundant at 50.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 02:52:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Greece locked in chicken-and-egg bond deal dilemma | EurActiv

Greece must underscore its political commitment to economic reforms if it is to receive a second EU bailout, finance ministers meeting in Brussels warned yesterday (24 January). Meanwhile, Greece's creditor banks argue they cannot fulfil their part of the deal unless the EU first commits the money.

"All Greek [political] parties must agree to the [austerity] measures and a new programme, independently of the upcoming elections," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told journalists after a meeting of EU finance ministers in Brussels.

New government expected in Athens

Greece is expected to stage snap elections before 8 April. Antonis Samaras, whose centre-right New Democracy party governs in coalition with technocrat Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, has openly criticised some austerity measures prescribed by international lenders.

Opinion polls suggest Samaras would win an election, but he would need to form a coalition with other parties to gain a mandate for governing.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 25th, 2012 at 12:54:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Barroso quiet as Hungary talks stagger | EurActiv

A meeting between European Commission President José Manuel Barroso and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, aimed at bridging differences over Hungary's controversial state reforms, ended up inconclusively yesterday (24 January). Meanwhile, finance ministers opened the way for sanctions to be imposed on Budapest over its deficit.

Orbán took a conciliatory tone after the end of his visit to the Commission's headquarters, but the statement, released by Barroso's office, made it clear there was little progress.

Piling further pressure on Orbán, EU finance ministers issued a statement just before the meeting, warning that Hungary could see its regional funding cut if it continues to break the EU's deficit limits.

Orbán was expected to present a calendar for changes to recently enacted Hungarian laws that the Commission and critics say could undermine the independence of the country's central bank, data protection authority and judiciary.

On 17 January the Commission launched infringement procedures in those three fields, giving the Hungarian authorities one month to respond.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 25th, 2012 at 01:03:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Meanwhile, the IMF issued its review, and, perhaps surprisingly, named the flat tax as the main deficit-causing problem.

Also meanwhile, there is at least one European body that is intent on dealing with Fidesz's legal coup in a truly broad way: the Venice Commission (a body under the Council of Europe which reviews laws) wants to review several more laws beyond what it already reviewed last year (those included the new constitution itself).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 05:19:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
EUobserver.com / Foreign Affairs / Organised crime problem dogs EU record on Kosovo

BRUSSELS - Four years after the EU's biggest-ever police mission came to Kosovo it has not indicted any top suspects on organised crime, posing questions about its work and the integrity of Kosovo's leaders.

Eulex itself is proud of its record. Its training of Kosovo police and customs is a success story. When the EU completes its Eulex review in the next few weeks, it is expected to reduce personnel to let local officers take over many day-to-day functions.

Eulex' spokesman in Pristina, Nicholas Hawton, told EUobserver it also has "clear results" in chasing criminals in its war-scarred and politically complex theatre of operations.

He added it has 350 ongoing criminal investigations and that its judges have handed down 220 verdicts - 15 on organised crime and 20 on war crimes. One of the investigations concerns accusations that Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci used to run an organ trafficking gang. On the shocking case of Enver Zymberi - a Kosovar Albanian policeman murdered by a Serb sniper last year - its investigation has led Interpol to issue six arrest warrants.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 25th, 2012 at 01:25:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
UK economy heads for recession | Reuters

(Reuters) - Britain's economy may have entered a mild recession in the last three months of 2011, hampering the government's core policy aim of spurring growth and raising the chances that the Bank of England will inject more cash soon.

Britain's recovery from the 2008/2009 recession - the deepest since the depression-hit 1930s - has already been sluggish, and unemployment has crept up to a 17-year high as the government cuts spending deeply to erase a huge budget deficit.

The economy shrank by 0.2 percent at the end of 2011, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday, a bit more than economists expected as a stagnating services sector failed to offset a slump in manufacturing and construction.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 25th, 2012 at 02:55:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Duh.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 05:10:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC News - Merkel says 'big rethink needed'

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the World Economic Forum that a "big rethink" is needed in the eurozone within the global economy.

"Structural reforms that lead to more jobs are essential," she told delegates at the Swiss resort of Davos. "Do we dare to be more European?"

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 25th, 2012 at 03:03:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC News - Scottish independence: Alex Salmond outlines referendum question

Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond has set out the question he intends to ask voters in a referendum on Scottish independence.

The SNP leader said Scots would be asked: "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?" in a ballot which he wants to hold in 2014.

But a consultation launched by Mr Salmond asks if voters favour a second question on more Holyrood powers.

He said the referendum could be regulated by the Electoral Commission.

In a statement to MSPs, Mr Salmond described the question as "short, straightforward and clear", saying the people of Scotland would be asked to make the most important decision facing the country in 300 years.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 25th, 2012 at 03:08:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eurointelligence Daily Briefing: ECB involvement in Greece is on the table
Talks between Athens and its private creditors resume today, with pressure for a deal by the end of the week; Kathemerini says involvement of the ECB is now part of the negotiations, after the IMF has put on the pressure on the ECB; there is still substantial opposition within the ECB about whether to accept, and how to handle, a haircut; the Greek government withdraws a wideranging liberalisation bill after MPs withhold support; the government now promises to present an ,,improved" version; Angela Merkel warns against overburdening Germany in crisis resolution efforts; Portuguese CDS reach record high as financial markets are betting on a default; Bild see Angela Merkel as Europe's Powerfrau; French unemployment rises close to 3m; Francois Hollande's economic advisers said they had dropped Keynes in favour of Schumpeter; the Fed extended its exceptionally low rates promise until end-2014, and sets a 2% inflation target; the Irish debt agency sold three-year debt as part of a bond swap; Colm McCarthy writes that this is not the beginning of a return to the markets; Ireland's fiscal watchdog insists on medium-term budget goals; Jean-Claude Trichet, meanwhile, now creates money for himself.


tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 04:02:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hollande drops Keynes in favour of Schumpeter

Nicolas Sarkozy's Socialst challenger Francois Hollande will today unveil his economic proposals. According to Le Monde there are several circles of economists who have elaborated Hollande's economic policy proposals. Among the dominating figures are Harvard economist Philippe Aghion, Bruegel director Jean Pisani-Ferry, industrial policy specialist Elie Cohen and social policy expert Gilbert Cette, the paper reports. ,,The Socialists are today engaged in the transformation the Social Democrats in Scandinavia have already gone through several years ago", Les Echos quotes Aghion. ,,The Keynesian model of of relaunching consumption would today aggravate our external deficit. Our thinking is now much closer to Schumpeter who emphasizes the role of innovation for growth in the medium to long term."

What a narrow reading of Keynes. You could also launch an employment stimulus programmes geared towards import substitution...

Obviously France is an electricity exporter. What is France's main import dependence?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 04:09:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Plus, 80 years later, we still fail to understand "in the long run we're all dead"...

It's far too easy to only aim for the medium to long term -this means that any significant results would be after Hollande is no longer president, and that a whole generation would have been pretty much sacrificed in the meantime.

I am also getting annoyed by the constant talks of "innovation" everywhere (not least in my boss's mouth). Sure, it's central to many technological success stories. But the bulk of economic activity (or of unemployed workers) is not particularly innovative. Are we to let it down the drain?

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 04:34:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another Keynes aphorism we fail to understand is the euthanasia of the rentier.

Schumpeter is famous for his concept of creative destruction. But in the end he's just a kinder, softer Hayek.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 05:57:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is he? Never got around to reading his stuff but I doubt Hayek would say something like this:

Joseph Schumpeter - Wikipedia

Joseph Schumpeter: Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. 1942 (Zitat:,,Can capitalism survive? No. I do not think it can.")., sowie: ,,... capitalist order tends to destroy itself and ... socialism is ... a likely heir", ,,My final conclusion therefore does not differ ... from that of all Marxists." Zitiert bei Alfred Müller: Die Marxsche Konjunkturtheorie - Eine überakkumulationstheorietische Interpretation. PapyRossa Köln, 2009 (Dissertation 1983), S. 338.


Wait this is important. Someone is wrong on the Internet.
by generic on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 09:59:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How interesting:
Today, Schumpeter has a following outside of standard textbook economics, in areas such as in economic policy, management studies, industrial policy, and the study of innovation. Schumpeter was probably the first scholar to develop theories about entrepreneurship. For instance, the European Union's innovation program, and its main development plan, the Lisbon Strategy, are influenced by Schumpeter. The International Joseph A. Schumpeter Society awards the Schumpeter Prize.

The Schumpeter School of Business and Economics opened in October 2008 at the University of Wuppertal. According to University President Professor Lambert T. Koch, "Schumpeter will not only be the name of the Faculty of Management and Economics, but this is also a research and teaching programme related to Joseph A. Schumpeter."

On 17 September 2009, The Economist inaugurated a column on business and management named "Schumpeter." The publication has a history of naming columns after significant figures or symbols in the covered field, including naming its British affairs column after former editor Walter Bagehot and its European affairs column after Charlemagne. The initial Schumpeter column praised him as a "champion of innovation and entrepreneurship" whose writing showed an understanding of the benefits and dangers of business that proved far ahead of its time.



tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 10:30:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Where Schumpeter lives in Hayek-land is on the matter of recessions/depressions.

For Schumpeter a recession was necessary to "correct" "misallocation of resources" notably labour.

Krugman has gone over the evidence for this in his columns over the last year.

His conclusion is that Schumpeter's theory isn't borne out by the evidence and it's all a bit incoherent.

Players like The Economist love the "creative destruction" and "innovation" soundbites from Schumpeter - but his work doesn't seem to hang together that well in the end.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 10:53:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Schumpeter's "creative destruction" is the destruction wrought by depressions, out of whose ashes entrepreneurship will usher in an innovated economic world.

The nihilism of magic ponies.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 11:08:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
perhaps Hollande has understood that French capitalism is desperately short of entrepreneurship. It seems that his emphasis on "innovation" points in that direction : French capitalists have never been interested in that, only in extracting rents.

Perhaps he will offer compulsory remedial classes in entrepreneurship and the sustainable creation of added value?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 11:47:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You're right about the rent extraction (Spain suffers from the same problem).

On Hollande, I think that's just wishful thinking. Hollande doesn't have his own economic ideas, but he relies on "experts". If Le Monde is right about who his "experts" are and their ideas, especially their advocacy of Schumpeter over Keynes, then we're fucked.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 12:03:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any idea what "innovation" is meant to mean?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 05:59:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Magic technofairy solving the problems the organisation fail to solve?

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:00:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's the new magic pixie dust.

There used to be Research and Development. Now there is Research and Development and Innovation.

In Spain we used to have an Economy Minister and a Ministry of Education and Science. Then in 2008 ZP decided to separate a Ministry of Education, Social Policy and Sport and create a ministry of Science and Innovation. Now we have a Finance Minister, an Economy and Innovation Minister, and a ministry of Education, Culture and Sport.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:07:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Hollande drops Keynes for Schumpeter" means "Hollande sees nothing wrong with a lost generation".

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 11:37:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
there is a real alternative on offer, by another candidate...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 05:04:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
funny that she also says that she will reduce the deficit. Perhaps she will be cast out for such sacrilege, from the Halls of All Progressive Economists Must Consider Keynsian Stimulus as the Only Solution.
by rootless2 on Sun Jan 29th, 2012 at 04:36:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BMWs.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 05:31:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Then you just need to raise marginal income taxes...

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 05:58:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, that is in Hollande's programme.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:13:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or high-end vehicle licensing fees.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:25:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think this is mostly communications. Say "innovation" and maybe even "reform"; don't admit to Keynesianism whatever you do.

Not that I think any of those mentioned are rabid Keynesians...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 05:34:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As you know I'm not a fan of Bruegel.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:00:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France Imports
France imports were worth 41841 Millions EUR in November of 2011. France is the third-largest trading nation in Western Europe. French principal imports are: machinery and equipment, vehicles, crude oil, plastics and chemicals. Its main import partners are European Union members (Germany, Belgium, Italy, Spain), United States and China.

Browsing around machinery and equipment, vehicles appears to be a reflection of France position in the global chain of airplane manufacture.

So oil would probably be it.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 05:59:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
,,The Socialists are today engaged in the transformation the Social Democrats in Scandinavia have already gone through several years ago"

The road to irrelevance is so Serious.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:02:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
@yanisvaroufakis

The FT has a column on the crisis of capitalism and the Davos folk are talking about it too. Only the Centre Left thinks C-ism is 'natural'.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:05:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Economist has a rather worried note about the cooperative model of a firm.
by rootless2 on Sun Jan 29th, 2012 at 04:37:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Parliamentary correspondent of the BBC.
The bill may be amended to set the terms for any independence referendum, and a posse of pro-union peers, including Lord Forsyth, the former Conservative Scottish Secretary, Lord Foulkes, the former Labour MP, and the Conservative hereditary peer and former minister Lord Caithness have been very busy drafting helpful changes. But these two from Lord Caithness piqued my interest:
[...]

"(2D) A vote in a referendum held under subsection (2B) of this section which results in Scotland leaving the United Kingdom shall not be binding on the residents of the Orkney Islands or the Shetland Islands unless a majority of the residents of the Orkney Islands and the Shetland Islands who voted in such a referendum voted that Scotland should leave the United Kingdom."

The national status of the Orkney Islands, the Shetland Islands (and indeed Caithness) are issues the Earl knows a thing or two about. His family, the Sinclairs, controlled them for hundreds of years - and for much of that time they owed allegiance not to the crown of Scotland, but to that of Norway.

Shouldn't they then go back to Norway?
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 06:32:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France TV info: Daniel Cohn-Bendit : "La campagne d'Eva Joly patine"
L'eurodéputé et coprésident du groupe Les Verts au Parlement européen estime que l'électorat écologiste fait le choix du vote utile en se tournant vers le socialiste François Hollande.
Daniel Cohn-Bendit: "Eva Joly's campaign slips"
The MEP and cochairman of the Green group in the European Parliament thinks that the environmentalist electorate choose the "useful vote" turning towards the Socialist François Hollande.
(with video)

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 09:48:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Reuters: As euro crisis fears ease, focus turns to growth
Part of the growth problem is that Germany insists other euro zone states must pursue the kind of structural reforms that helped it regain competitiveness in the last decade, even if these risk sending weaker economies into a deflationary spiral.

"To overcome the crisis, there is no way around strict consolidation and structural reforms in the member states," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said late on Tuesday.

...

Financial market participants say they are more concerned about the absence of growth in the euro zone than about budget deficits and public debt levels now, because growth is what will enable countries to service and repay their debts over time. "It looks like the LTRO is having a positive contribution. Does it solve all of the problems sustainably? Probably not," said Andrew Bosomworth, a senior portfolio manager at Pimco.

"At the end of the day, it comes down to growth -- that's what these countries need to keep their debt sustainable."



tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 11:00:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, the "financial market participants" are no-one defined, so they cannot be said to be acting consciously.

Still, it would have helped if people like Bosomworth had mentioned growth last year instead of allowing austerity to dominate the discussion...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 11:08:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You cannot accuse Pimco of pushing austerity, I don't think.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 11:09:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pimco have been very inconsistent, like many analysts and ratings agencies...

Here's one example, it gets worse the further back you go...

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-06-13/markets/30099802_1_uk-government-spending-economic-gr owth

Bill Gross has been particularly weird, swinging from suggesting the USA had a debt problem and was going to "collapse like Greece" a year ago or so to now signing up for Keynes...

The inconsistency has been fatal because they've always provided right-wing politicians with just enough cover to continue with austerity.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 11:25:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Metatone:
Pimco have been very inconsistent, like many analysts and ratings agencies...

Making money of volatile prices?

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Jan 26th, 2012 at 11:52:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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