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Germany went from being the sick man of Europe into the expoert powerhouse of today by turning a small current account deficit into a massive current account surplus. It did this by stagnating salaries for 10 years. It has nothing to do with "working hard". And the euro periphery cannot get out of the hole by "working harder" unless Germany eliminates it's CA surplus and starts importing periphery goods en masse, not unless the Eurozone as a whole is to run a CA surplus. But if so, who then will import euro goods? And how should the euro periphery return to competitiveness without devaluations/core inflation/euro depreciation? By suffering through 10 years of stagnating/falling nominal salaries, while at 20+ % unemployment?

Something will have to give, eventually. Just sayin'.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 01:10:15 PM EST
It really should not be this hard to talk the germans into consuming more. I mean, what europe needs is for the typical german cashier, cleaning lady ect to be paid more (Industry wages are actually fairly in line with german productivity. the service sector pays shit) and lark off on holiday to greece/ect once a year.
How is this not the easiest sell in the history of politics?
"Comrades, we must party harder!"
by Thomas on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 01:50:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I spoke to some German friends (economists) about that idea. The response was something along the lines of "no, that would be a disaster, we must work harder, current account deficits have nothing to do with the crisis, the periphery nations must work harder at lower salaries too, just like we did."

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 01:59:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good medicine is bitter.
by Katrin on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 02:09:00 PM EST
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And suffering is virtuous. We must now repent for past sins overspending with a really deep cathartic episode in purgatory recession. Running our factories at half output for so long will appease the angry gods of the Market.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 02:27:50 PM EST
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Exactly. And when the lazy Greeks have learned their lesson and are becoming virtuous it is time for the next round in Germany...

People tend to forget that every race to the bottom has a predictable end: hitting the bottom.

by Katrin on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 02:33:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
current account deficits have nothing to do with the crisis

Yeah, and Spain didn't run budget surpluses and lower its public debt to 40% of GDP by 2007 while Germany kept its debt above 60% for the whole decade.

I believe this is called "the fiscalization lie" and it is popular because it is self-serving.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 05:39:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In all fairness though, while they are ph.d. students, macro is not their area.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sat Jan 28th, 2012 at 03:10:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You are being kind. It really should not be beyond the understanding of anyone who went through high school in ANY specialty to grasp that there is no way to break down zero into a sum of positive figures of which at least one is not nil.

That the sum of mutual trades nets down to zero is not particularly challenging either.

And if anyone has failed to think through even something as simple as that, it would be wise to simply avoid commenting -something that PHD students should be sensitive to. You'll be surprised how often I fail to give a definitive advice about insects taxonomy. Or even about microbiology, or statistical physics, fields in which I actually hold a degree.

This is not to say that your friends are not nice people. But I remain baffled by how easily macroeconomics get treated like a religion -even by economists.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Sat Jan 28th, 2012 at 12:36:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It should seem like a reasonable proposition. But the whole point of competitive deflation is to reduce unit labour costs, ensuring lower prices for goods, while depressing domestic demand so that the country's productive effort goes into export. Added value goes into a much smaller number of pockets.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 02:15:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That Turkeys don't vote for Christmas is one of the oldest lies in politics.

Wait this is important. Someone is wrong on the Internet.
by generic on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 02:42:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 03:08:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I.. dont think it works out well even for the people at the top, selling products into an eternal trade surplus via vendor finance means that the vendor loans must, in the end go bad, and those are held by capital.  
What we really need is a pithy reframing of the debate that convinces (german) voters that excessive wage restraint is a bad idea.
"You cannot have a wealthier nation without wealthier workers"?
by Thomas on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 03:02:11 PM EST
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You would seem to be right, with the debt/credit/trade imbalance/currency crisis Europe is - I was going to say undergoing, but fostering would be a better term. But the lenders are making it clear they want every last pfennig. They can't imagine losing out.

If they insist, of course, the people at the top will begin to feel the pain, because exports within the eurozone will fall off seriously. Though they've got a nice flexible handle on the situation, with all those short-hours part-time jobs that can be shucked off.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 03:22:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Henry Ford got it:

Henry Ford - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Ford announced his $5-per-day program on January 5, 1914, raising the minimum daily pay from $2.34 to $5 for qualifying workers. It also set a new, reduced workweek, although the details vary in different accounts. Ford and Crowther in 1922 described it as six 8-hour days, giving a 48-hour week,[27] while in 1926 they described it as five 8-hour days, giving a 40-hour week.[28] (Apparently the program started with Saturdays as workdays and sometime later it was changed to a day off.)

Detroit was already a high-wage city, but competitors were forced to raise wages or lose their best workers.[29] Ford's policy proved, however, that paying people more would enable Ford workers to afford the cars they were producing and be good for the economy. Ford explained the policy as profit-sharing rather than wages.[30] It may have been Couzens who convinced Ford to adopt the $5 day.[31]

But then again we are not run by industrialists anymore, are we?

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 04:48:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is not Swabian housewife morality.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 27th, 2012 at 05:35:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unionization grade is much higher in manufacturing then in services. And that I think explains most of the difference.
by IM on Sat Jan 28th, 2012 at 07:51:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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