Protest in a one-party state | 104 comments (104 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 0)

Interesting that you think of the Gleiwitz incident, rather than the Log Revolution, the Pakrac clash, and later the Fall of Vukovar, as the model of how things would start going to hell.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 07:00:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 0)

Well those things were not the same but nevertheless there are millions ways for things to go to hell (and we in ex YU have seen quite a few of them).
If there will be war it's easy to think of something that will provoke it and even easier to do it.
Question is if there will be war planed and who has interest to start it (and decide who good guys are and who are bad). All tho things sometimes do not go according to plan...sooner or later...

by vbo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 08:26:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (4.00 / 3)

Well those things were not the same

That was the point. It's not all-out war between regular armies with heavy weaponry (as the Third Reich assault following the Gleiwitz incident) which I'm concerned about in my worst-case scenarios when it comes to conflict with Slovakia and Romania, more the triggering of skirmishes to civil wars to civil wars with regular army intervention. (Note that I didn't link to the Siege of Vukovar itself, but to its fall, where paramilitaries played a strong role.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 01:32:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 0)

Yeah...you are right. It would be more like ex YU scenario. But who is going to "play" Serbs? Is Hungary going to be "bad guy" and Romanians, Slovaks (and Serbs with Hungarian minority in Vojvodina) good guys? I am not sure...depending of why this silence from EU is so "loud"...
And sooner or later after skirmishes we'll have big powers involved.

by vbo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 06:31:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 1)

Who're the goodies and who're the baddies will be decided retroactively when the great powers decide which faction to support.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 07:32:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 0)

I read somewhere toay ( I think it was Mediapart ) that the reason the EU is so quiet is that Germany and Austria have huge outstanding loans to Hungary. Anyone know if this is true?

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!

by LEP on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 05:53:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 0)

Yes, especially the Austrian banking system has already been bailed out once and is failing again under the weight of its exposure to its Eastern neighbours.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 06:03:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 1)

German banks have little exposure in Hungary, Austrian banks do. That didn't keep the EU form being not at all quiet on the economic front: see the central bank.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 06:51:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 1)

On the EU, the Hungarian Central Bank and economic imbalances.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 07:13:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 0)

BTW I tried to find a source on the composition of the foreign holders of both public and private credits, but failed. I only know that the main problem on the private front is Swiss francs; and that 10% of the entite public debt (that is about a sixth to fifth of the foreign public debt) is held by a single American investment fund since late last year.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 07:40:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 0)

Is that one of those vulture funds specialised in buying distressed assets?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 08:51:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 0)

Yes, I guess:

Franklin Templeton Investments - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

...The firm specializes in conservatively managed mutual funds. It offers products under the Franklin, Templeton, Mutual Series and Fiduciary brand names. Like other large investment companies, the firm offers a wide variety of funds but is traditionally best known for bond funds under the Franklin brand, international funds under the Templeton brand, and value funds under the Mutual Series brand.
...In 2004, Franklin Templeton paid fines to the State of California, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to settle issues regarding questionable practices including market timing. The plan for distribution of settlement monies was completed in September 2006, and all distributions have been completed as of December 2008.

Some analysts reportedly said [sorry source in Hungarian] that maybe Franklin Templeton continued its purchases to avoid a loss of value of its existing holdings of Hungarian government debt, that is by preventing a market crash (which is said to previously have been a practice of the now nationalised private pension funds in Hungary).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sat Jan 7th, 2012 at 05:09:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (4.00 / 2)

Oh, those people?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jan 7th, 2012 at 05:54:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 0)

They-re just a regular mutual fund manager. Not particularly "locust". In fact, they got in trouble in the last decade for engaging in "market timing", which is a pretty reasonable thing to do except that some pension funds argued it was contrary to their interests as clients.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jan 7th, 2012 at 04:03:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Protest in a one-party state (none / 0)

Don't they have those loans to Greece? And Italy?
And they sorted it out (?) easily...

by vbo on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 08:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Protest in a one-party state | 104 comments (104 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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