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BBC News - Germany's President Wulff rejects resignation calls

Germany's President Christian Wulff says he will not resign over his conduct in a home loan scandal.

He has come under increasing pressure after it emerged he had threatened a newspaper with legal action if it published details about the controversial loan.

In a recorded TV interview, Mr Wulff said the threat was a "serious mistake" for which he was sorry.

When asked whether he had considered stepping down, he replied: "No."



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 01:23:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
German president faces widening scandal | EurActiv

Wulff is also a Christian Democrat with close ties to Merkel.

The Free Democrats (FDP), the junior partners in Merkel's coalition, say it is up to the president to set the record straight. "I am confident he will succeed," FDP Secretary-General Patrick Döring said on Tuesday as quoted by Deutsche Welle.

Wulff's election in June 2010 was already a humiliation for Merkel. The post of president is largely ceremonial in Germany and the head of state is elected by parliament. However, it took three rounds of voting to elect Wulff, and in the first round 44 members of Merkel's party voted against him in a major blow to her leadership.

Wulff's predecessor, Horst Köhler, unexpectedly resigned on 31 May 2010 following a 'misplaced comment' he made about German military action abroad.

This is not the first time that Wulff tried to suppress a media report in his presidential capacity, German media reported. In June 2011, Wulff is said to have tried to make the Welt am Sonntag newspaper drop a story about his half-sister.

The Financial Times Deutschland said Wulff is not up to the job of German president and called for him to resign.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 03:01:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wulff is taking advantage of the current political situation, where Merkel and her ruling coalition can't afford to lose a second president, especially after the embarrassment of the 3 votes it took to get him in. But behind the scenes the damage is already done, and even in the coalition the situation is not quiet.

Wulff did apologize again, on tonight's nation-wide primetime broadcast (which i did not see), but then claimed he was just trying to protect his family, as anyone would do. Against the infernal media. Classic victimhood attempt. He even said he was just trying to buy some time for further discussion with his calls to the media chiefs.

BILD has already publicly called bullshit. Spiegel documented the victimhood story, and their commentator thinks he'll probably survive, giving us more banality in a banal situation from a banal president.

i suppose it depends on the opposition. I'd say what i think is going on, but i'm just not expert enough in bundespolitik to make a call.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 06:10:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Although i will say that a real leader, or a Mohawk leader, would have already taken the ceremonial deer horns from his head. either because he knew it was right, or because he knew the women would take them from his head, as they had the right of impeachment. (the women could call the warriors on the third attempt, if the first two requests they made had failed.)

I can't believe such blatant disrespect for the office is allowed to continue, showing once again, that real power is wielded by small minds.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 06:31:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wulff won't resign as long as he can put up with the fact that nobody takes him seriously any longer. Here is some fun: the speech he should have given and everybody knew in advance he wouldn't give.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL2T30O2NQs&feature=player_embedded

An interesting question is why the press (Springer's Bild at that) is blurting out the affair just now.

by Katrin on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 06:43:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hah (though it will take me a few listens to get it all.)

And a very interesting question, why now? Who's to gain, what?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 07:12:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A new coalition, perhaps? If a SPD candidate becomes president, Merkel could remain chancellor in a grand coalition.
by Katrin on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 07:31:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would have thought that the SPD would have realised by now that grand coalitions are an electoral and political cul-de-sac.

Then again, this is the SPD we're talking about.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 01:02:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly, it's the SPD we are talking about. A grand coalition is an opportunity to pursue the politics they like best AND to blame their coalition partner for it. What more do they want?
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 03:20:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just before the calls to Bild were leaked, in best defeatist tradition, SPD boss Sigmar Gabriel declared that it wouldn't be good if Wulff resigned now (arguing that two early resignations of Presidents would be a bad thing)...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 07:45:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I may interrupt your social democrats hating for a moment - has anybody shouted socialfascist yet? - the motivation of Gabriel is quite simple:

  1. Wulff cuold well fall anyway, so playing above all gaisn cheap staetmans like points

  2. the federal assembly would now elect another CDU(CSU/FDP candidate

  3. a lingering on of the crisis can only damage the coalition and further the chances od SPD and greens to win in Schleswig-Holstein in may.

Cynical, yes. But probably right and hardly defeatist.
by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:41:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe so, but before the telephone call scandal, it didn't seem to me as if Wulff was about to fall, and Gabriel's intervention only seemed to take the wind out of the loan scandal.

To Gabriel's credit, now I am reading that he is attacking again, and in fact attacking Merkel (saying that after Wulff's second unsatisfactory television address, this is a Causa Merkel rather than a Causa Wulff).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 01:38:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How about Peer Crass Keynesianism Steinbrück for President of Austeristan?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 03:59:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No chance. He wants a political role, which as president he would not have. We would be rid of him for good.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 04:29:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Here's how to embed a Youtube vid on ET: type this:

((youtube dL2T30O2NQs))

The code that identifies each video is the sequence after "v=". Ignore any "&...." whatever that may follow.

More on video embedding macros in the User Guide.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 01:38:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you. That sounds as complicated as I suspected. Sigh. I'll try next time.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 03:22:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure. I think trying to strongarm the newspapers is going to turn out to be a bigger deal than the shady loans.

You know you're in trouble when the Bildzeitung acts classier than you do.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 03:15:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's always the coverup that damns the criminal.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 03:54:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A taz summary of Bild comments on Wulff over the past 12 years suggests that they got sour on him for his comment on Islam and for dropping Sarrazin.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 07:34:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't believe in that spin. The president isn't important. If he is attacked, the government is meant.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:55:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But why would Bild attack a center-right government?

That be would be quite unusual.

by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:59:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bild attacks THIS centre-right government.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 10:08:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You think they hope Merkel or the coalition could fall over this? I think that's far-fetched.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 01:44:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This government won't win a election again. If the CDU wants a chancellor who can (perhaps) win another term, it must be a new one, not Merkel.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:06:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe true maybe not, but how does that fit into Bild's actions according to you?

(Besides, always the pessimist, I'm not so sure about that. Merkel's poll numbers rose in recent months, ZDF saw her on top last month. As for parties, while the FDP is stable below the 5% limit, I'd never discount the 'help' of CDU voters – while some voters see the Pirates melting away. 2013 is too far away to assume that there won't be a conservative comeback, IMHO.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:21:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The gains of the CDU don't compensate the FDP's losses. We will see if Merkel's modernisation of the CDU has the result she aimed at: catching some young voters. The common CDU voter is old and will not take part in too many elections anymore...
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:42:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An interesting question is why the press (Springer's Bild at that) is blurting out the affair just now.

How did it happen? How did the scandal originally break out? Is it possible that it was really a minor issue stupendously mismanaged by Wulff himself?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 10:05:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wulff clearly mismanaged the affair, but Bild does not publish embarassing stories about the president by chance or without the knowledge of the chief editors. They did it on purpose.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 10:21:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
IIRC Bild leaked the story to FAZ three weeks after it occured, and then "confirmed" the media reports with additional details. And now they are stirring the pot: they requested Wulff's permission to publish the transscript, Wulf refused (saying that his saying sorry three days after the threatening calls should be enough), which Bild 'reported' with the comment that they are sorry that Wullf doesn't keep to the transparency he promised himself (so no mistake there, they are clearly shooting him down).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 01:42:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IIRC Bild leaked the story to FAZ three weeks after it occured

You mean the story about the phone threats? But when and how did the loan story become a scandal?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:15:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The original loan story was published by Bild (that's what he tried to prevent with the phone calls), on 13 December, but further details were dug up by other media, as well as his for-free holidays and second questionable loan (used to repay the first loan).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:28:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From Spiegel also on December 13: German President Denies Misleading State Parliament
The mass-circulation Bild newspaper alleged that Wulff had not given the whole truth in a response to a parliamentary question put to him in 2010, when he was still governor of the northern state of Lower Saxony, about whether he had business ties with the businessman Egon Geerkens.

The report said Wulff's office had declared at the time that there were no business links with Geerkens. The question had been submitted by two regional members of parliament with the opposition Green Party.

According to Bild, however, Wulff and his wife Bettina had received a loan of €500,000 ($660,000) from Geerkens' wife Edith in order to buy a home.

Why did this story surface now, rather than back in 2010?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:32:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why did this story surface now, rather than back in 2010?

Yes. Why oh why?

by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:35:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Reading your link to Bild, it is apparent that someone must have leaked a copy of the private contract between Frau Geerkens and Wulff. But that someone has to be in the close entourage of either of the two couples.
Der Bundespräsident steht nach BILD vorliegenden Dokumenten im Verdacht, am 18. Februar 2010 den Landtag in Hannover getäuscht zu haben
Has Bild later published the documents, like newspapers sometimes do in these cases?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:42:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. They had sued to get permission to see the land register for that house. The loan is entered there.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:44:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This seems to me a case of Caesar's wife must not only be honest but appear honest, grossly mismanaged.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 03:32:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To what extent is it illegal in Germany for a public official to accept gifts?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 03:48:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Niedersachsen bans everything that could have a relation to the office someone holds. Wulff says his relationship to Geerkens is entirely private, that's why the loan is okay. But why did Geerkens accompany him on several official travels then? It stinks. Probably it's more than just bad style, some experts (von Arnim is a renowned one) say it's corruption in the sense of criminal law.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 04:19:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, shortly after Wulff failed to disclose his loan to the NS parliament, he sought a loan from a private banking outfit in Stuttgart, and it appears that he was recommended to the bank as a client by Geerkens.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 04:28:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The BW-Bank is a public sector bank partly owned by the state of Baden-Würtemberg. Of course back then a Baden-Württemberg was governed by a CDU/FDP coalition, leading to further problems.

Or do you talk about yet another bank I missed?

by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:05:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, I mean BW.

What is a Land doing operating a private banking business, by the way? Is that in the public interest?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:08:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is a good question. BW is part of LBBW and that is the Landesbank of Baden-Würtemberg and Landesbanken do or rather did all kind of banking. Including giving out loans to wealthy clients like Geerkens. Who is or was a customer of the BW-Bank. Geerkens is a small or if you want medium business dealing in jewelry, junk* and real estate

Now the justification of any Landesbank is of course the servicing of regional business. Sprakassen do retail and small business and anything to big for them and in the state is the business of the Landesbank.

* I am not making this up!

by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:16:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By private banking I don't mean privately owned, I mean catering only to high-net-worth individuals.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:10:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. That is the surprising part. Geerkens is a high net worth individual. So doing private banking and a loan typical for private banking is normal regarding him.

But Wulff of course isn't high net worth. So he would not get this kind of loan ( a revolving money market loan).

by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:21:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So Wulff and Geerkens have an ongoing gift-exchange relationship. Wulff includes Geerkens among is entourage on state trips (with Geerkens paying his way, and isn't Geerkens basically retired, so what are these, glorified vacations?) and Geerkens corresponds with plane tickets, personal loans, and personal recommendations as a client to exclusive businesses.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:51:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the explanation is that Geerkens was on friend of Wulffs late father and has known Wulff since Wulff was sixteen and had already supported Wulff then he was young, unknown and poor..

To learn more ET should send me on a longer fact finding mission to Osnabrück.

And since Geerkens is retired and living in Switzerland since 2003 he shouldn't be part of these delegations, no longer being a part of the regional business scene.

by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:58:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But since Geerkens is retired he wouldn't be deriving any business benefits from taking part in those trips.

This rather looks like a sort of father-figure relationship. It would be weird enough if Wulff took his retired parents with him on state trips.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 06:05:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not THAT retired, I guess. But he is taxed in Switzerland.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 06:19:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I interpreted he had retired because he had shut down his business, but apparently he moved to Switzerland because he developed cancer.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 6th, 2012 at 04:09:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the explanation is that Geerkens was on friend of Wulffs late father and has known Wulff since Wulff was sixteen and had already supported Wulff then he was young, unknown and poor..

Which, if Wikipedia is reliable, was the time when his mother developed multiple sclerosis and he had to take care of his siblings, given that the parents had been separated since he was two.

Gah, I'm getting to find our more details of Wulff's personal life than I should care to know...

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 06:25:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Spain is going through a trial circus of two prominent regional politicians for accepting gifts. It turns out that it is illegal under spanish law to accept or solicit gifts for not doing one's job, for doing one's job, as a reward for having (not) done one's job, and in consideration of the office they hold. In this particular case, as it cannot be proved that the gifts were associated to any business deals or government procurement, the indictment is for accepting gifts given to them in consideration of their political office.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 04:55:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In February 2010 info about the relationship of Wulff and Geerkens was leaked. Geerkens had paid for Wulffs travel and so on. Wulff was asked in Parliament (of Niedersachsen) if he had a business relation with Mr Wulff. Answer: no.

Bild made public that Wulff had business relations with Mrs Geerkens. Wulff defended himself that he had not lied to parliament, which very strictly speaking may even be true. It's not the response to rescue his credibility, though.

by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:31:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Correction, 1st para:

...Wulff was asked in Parliament (of Niedersachsen) if he had a business relation with Mr Geerkens. Answer: no.

by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:33:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
taz reports that Bild is leaking excerpts of the transscript left and right, but so far no other media seems to have jumped on the opportunity to be instrumentalised over this.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 04:05:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which might explain why the ARD Blitz survey (tonight) finds him not trustworthy, but should still stay in office, as they also believe "the media" is hounding him.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 04:56:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's worse than just a banal president: a corrupt and lying president. It's even worse than that: a corrupt and lying president, who finds he is unfairly treated, because the press blurted out the affair, which in his view they shouldn't have done.

The opposition (in Niedersachsen) could have demanded an enquiry, but didn't, because they are as corrupt. (Sigmar Gabriel comes from Nds. too, btw.). In Berlin they could try to impeach Wulff. They won't.

It's the berlusconisation of our political sphere.

by Katrin on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 06:36:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hey, at least they got rid of Gutenberg.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 06:52:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You already know there was no stake in his heart, and he's on his way back.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 07:13:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not the same.

Guttenberg had completely lost touch with reality. He kept saying that he had just forgotten some quotes, although he had not forgotten to germanise the spelling of Swiss quotes, and it was too many quotes anyway. The heap of evidence grew every day, but Guttenberg was clinging to his story. Weird. Pathological, probably. I hasten to add that it is NOT the same as hearing voices coming out of the cupboard, BUT... Hell, the German defence minister with a psychiatric problem... That's why he had to go, Migeru.

Wulff hopes for our short memories, and he knows probably that the opposition doesn't want too much poking in the dirt either. He is probably sane, and he has only to shake some hands and to sign some things anyway. And speeches, which will be a problem.

by Katrin on Wed Jan 4th, 2012 at 07:24:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's the Financial Times Germany headline graf:


Sentimental, provincial and unapologetic - that's how the President has presented himself to his people. In his audacity, he recalls Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg. But at least Wulff confirmed before millions of viewers: The Chancellor has chosen the wrong guy.

Other FTD headlines:
BILD Contradicts Wulff
The First President Who Pardons Himself

wow, Merkel can't win here. Keep him, she looks bad. Can him, she looks bad. Why can't the opposition win? (Because they're nearly as bad???)

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:11:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But wasn't Merkel's intent to get rid of Wulff?

Why should she have a problem now? SHe can allow the Bundestag to appoint whoever they want to the post since there are no more political opponents she needs to retire.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:16:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Minor correction: the President is elected by the Bundesversammlung (Federal Assembly), a temporary body consisting of Bundestag members as well as delegations of the regional parliaments. After the recent spate of CDU election losses, I'm not sure that they have a big enough majority.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 07:54:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Four votes. (That is more then SPD, greens , left and some minor parties combined)
by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:35:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Four votes out of 1240. She'd better find a candidate that gets votes from the opposition too.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 10:02:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She can hope on red/green and left being divided and on some votes from the sixteen "others".
by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 10:06:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She can't even be sure of all votes of CDU and CSU, let alone FDP!
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 10:27:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
isn't there an upcoming election in Shleswig Holstein? Would that change the balance, assuming the shift from CDU/FDP?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 10:23:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh yes. SH has 22 delegates, 8 CDU, 3 FDP. After the elections probably 0 FDP and possibly less CDU.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 10:31:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The election in Schleswig-Holstein is tomorrow in four months. So if Wulff doesn't last that long, the election changes nothing.
by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 10:40:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. But the majority of 4 votes is nothing she can rely on anyway. A Bundesversammlung is unpredictable. If Wulff lasts about 3 more months even the majority by 4 votes will be gone.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 10:46:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Considering that regional parliaments don't have to send regional MPs, and include some prominent people on their lists who thus have a weaker party allegiance, that majority is indeed slim and shaky.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 01:51:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BTW, I can't think of many Merkel would pick as candidate at the moment. Gauck would be one only if she can find a formulation that can prevent SPD/Greens Itoldyousos. There is Schäuble, who wanted the job in the past, which would then bring up the question of whom she would bring in as finance minister.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 07:59:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That would be ideal, she could be her own finance minister and vie for the presidence of the EcoFin...

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 08:54:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In my nightmares, she would bring back Roland Koch (who did want the finance minister post in the past). Also, what about Jürgen Stark or Axel Weber...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 01:56:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why does Merkel have to pick a candidate?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 08:58:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She is the leader of the coalition, the coalition commands a majority in the federal assembly and the CDU largest party in the assembly. Now she could instead of pick a candidate just concur to a candidate proposed from FDP or CSU. Both both parties are in a to sorry state to waste energy on that.

Now legally speaking any member of the federal assembly could propose a candidate.

by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:31:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
legally speaking any member of the federal assembly could propose a candidate

Precisely my point. She could wash her hands of the whole thing with some lofty bullshit along the lines of "the executive branch cannot interfere in the constitutional prerogatives of the legislative branch" and "the office of President must be nonpartisan".

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:36:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't work. In the german political system the chancellor is supposed to lead the parliamentary faction. If she wouldn't lead, the faction, the party, her coalition partners would be deeply unhappy. And the press and the opposition parties would attack her as weak.

She can either

a) choose a CDU candidate

b) concur to a FDP or CSU candidate

c) compromise with SPD and Greens on a common candidate

option c) would be the best in my opinion. a la "Joschka Fischer was today elected as the first green President of the federal republic as a common candidate of CDU/CSU(FDP/SPD/Greens"

by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:51:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Come to think of it, Merkel should propose herself for the job...

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 05:17:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure. We already have a title for  the combined office of chancellor and president.

Merkel's problem is that presidents of her choice tend to be embarassing figures. The opposition has a problem, because their candidate was Gauck, the ultra-neoliberal, which is embarassing for them. On the other hand they can't name a different candidate: the Seeheimer Kreis wouldn't like that. The opposition does not want this reckoning just now.

by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 07:14:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gauck, an ultra-neoliberal? I missed his opinions on economic policies, do you have a link? I thought he is problematic for conservative views like doctrinaire 'anti-communism', conservativeness on religion, Atlanticism, and support for Sarrazin.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 07:50:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
anticapitalist protest are unspeakably silly, if we believe Gauck. If successful they lead directly to an economy without bananas and functioning washing-machines.
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:49:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, thanks. IMHO that doesn't make him a neoliberal, just your run-of-the-mill conservative, there was such talk in the sixties already. But it certainly makes him a funny Christian pastor...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 02:03:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure. We already have a title for  the combined office of chancellor and president.

No, no, she would step down as Chancellor, tolet someone else preside over a German recession and a blowup of the Eurozone while she makes nice speeches about Swabian housewife morality.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 08:52:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Corrected link to Seeheimer Kreis.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:09:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you. What did I get wrong?
by Katrin on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:50:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Huh, the original seems to work now...

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:52:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The opposition doesn't have a majority in the federal assembly. That makes the election of a new president unappetizing. Back then Wulff was elected the opposition position was even weaker.
by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:23:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BTW a taz commentary suggests that the post of Federal President is archaic in its father figure role, now became superfluous, and should be abolished. I'm wary of the idea: IMHO the result would just be the further American Presidentisation of the chancellor post, e.g. the mixing of the representative-of-all and the partisan head of executive roles.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 08:02:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I actually think that in an over reaction to the presidency of the Weimar Republic the office was weakened to much.
by IM on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 09:19:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which role would you like it to take which it doesn't have as of now?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 01:46:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And here's Spiegel: A Performance Worthy of a Puppet Theater: Wulff's Pseudo-Transparency
In a television appearance on Wednesday, German President Christian Wulff sought to end a growing scandal involving his personal loans and treatment of the media. He showed a bit of regret, but also tried to portray himself as a victim of the nasty press. It was brazen, but also smart. It is very possible he will survive the affair.


tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 11:49:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"I wouldn't want to be a president in a country where a person can no longer borrow money from friends," the president said on Wednesday night, refering to the controversy about his private loan. It almost made one want to respond: Who wants to be the citizen of a country in which the president makes such statements on television?

...

The political calculations by Merkel and her allies are absolutely mediocre, for which they have the perfect president. Wulff is determined to sit out the affair. That should be apparent to anyone.



tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 5th, 2012 at 11:52:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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