Welcome to the new version of European Tribune. It's just a new layout, so everything should work as before - please report bugs here.
Display:
I would guess that this referred to the choice of a prime minister by the Bundesbank.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 04:36:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Abysmally ridiculous.

In Italy the president of the republic will charge a person to form a government. Once the person who has been charged - I use the term instead of "nominated"- has formed his government the government is sworn in by the president. Within ten days the government must present itself in parliament to receive a vote of confidence in both houses. Voting is by role call.

It is an informal practice guided by constitutional logic to first consult the parties in parliament as well as prominent public figures and other relevant institutional figures before charging a person with forming a government. No where is it written that the person charged to form a government must be a member of parliament. He could be my local butcher as far as that goes. Nor must the ministers belong to parliament.  Obviously the goal is to have a majority approval in parliament to carry out a program.

Italy is not a premiership as Miliband erroneously presumed. There is no such thing as a premier. The person charged to form a government is simply the president of the council.

Berlusconi attempted to mask this with his electoral law which obliges the citizenry to vote only for a party or a coalition which also indicates a person that the coalition would like to see as president of the council. Berlusconi likes to sell this as a factual constitution based on informal practices. It is however in contrast with the constitution and can simply be scored off as a right to free speech. It is not binding. It's in the PR department.

By the same logic one could pass a law that all Chryslers can carry the Lamborghini logo. It wouldn't make a Chrysler a Lamborghini. Nor would anyone even bother with spare parts and insurance. Berlusconi was never elected premier. He can say it all he wants. It's free speech and snake oil at that.

But in the end he was one of a half dozen people who was elected to parliament. All the others were nominated by him or other parties. There is not a single member of the Italian parliament who can indicate by how many votes he won his election. Which is the real contention on whether there is or is not democracy in Italy.

As for the present government it was formed according to the constitution. Berlusconi resigned once it was apparent he no longer had the confidence of parliament. Napolitano simply followed both formal and informal procedure to insure that the state had a government. He did not even have to nominate Monti to the Senate as lifetime Senator in order to charge Monti with forming a government.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 05:39:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
People are very stupid about other peoples' forms of democracy.

Though you can argue that the Monti government lacks political legitimacy - and I'm not even sure that is true - it's legally legitimate.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 05:46:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Political legitimacy comes through role call in parliament. Each individual member of parliament publicly motivates his vote before the presiding member of each house.

Monti's government received a comfortable majority of the votes (from MP's who were chosen by parties, not voters). More politically legitimate than that is hard to argue.

The primacy of political sovereignity is expressed in parliament. It is, fortunately after thousands of years of experimentation and the parenthesis of fascist dictatorship, not in the hand of the populist demos or those who erect themselves as the one and only true embodiment of the masses or the Nation.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 06:01:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In my view a government that has clearly lost the support of the people isn't politically legitimate even though it may be legally legitimate.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 06:07:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which would mean Berlusconi and Orban.

Monti and his government have high approval ratings despite the draconian measures taken by the Monti government, comfortably over 50%.

Beyond your personal opinion which is sacrosanct its implications would reek havoc with any state were the mere lose of support or approval to determine the destiny of policies and governments. It's precisely this chase after approval that has reduced the political class to mediocrity. Stature, competence and vision, the ability to seminate for future generations is very much lacking on the world stage.

After the sheer idiocy of Berlusconi we now have a Council President that by comparison evidences the mediocrity of Merkel, Sarkozy- and Cameron. It doesn't really make a difference for public opinion but Germany's lording it over is going to have to finally deal with someone who is more competent than she is.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 07:15:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's a balance point between responding to every whim of the opinion polls and totally disregarding public opinion. That current politicians are too far to one side of that doesn't mean that the other end of the scale - ignoring the voters completely until it's time to bribe them for the next election - is a good thing either.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 07:31:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One matter that may escape the foreign observer is the general insufferance of voters for the electoral law known as the Porcellum which disenfranchised voters of their right to vote for a candidate. No one wants to vote with the actual law save for De Pietro and opinion makers such as Marco Travaglio.

On January 11th we'll see if the Constitutional Court approves the holding of a referendum to abolish the present electoral law.

Thanks to that law, voters' preferences have been ignored for the past two national elections. Of course this does not diminish the formal legitimacy of the institutions. Institutions function according to law- in the name of the people- not to the whim of the people.

 

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 08:19:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The initial assertion doesn't refer to the legality of the Italian government. It is a reference to the lack of a democratic mandate. Whilst MPs and parties are elected to office, and once in, are governed by the rule of law, the popular mandate normally derives from a stated programme or standpoint, from which the government is to be conducted. No-one argued that the Snowdon/MacDonald involvement in the 1930s was illegal. People argued it represented a betrayal, from what these politicians had stood for, upon election in 1929. Such events create an interegnum - normally temporary - but I think the 'suspension' of democracy is a valid expression in such a circumstance.
by car05 on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 05:11:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, even if the overwhelming majority of elected MPs voted for the Monti government, and opinion polls show support for Monti now, the voters who voted for these MPs didn't elect them after having seen the programme of the Monti government exposed to public debate in a campaign.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 02:23:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By how many votes were each of those MPs and senators elected?

Tomorrow the Constitutional Court will hand down its decision on whether we'll have a referendum to abolish Berlusconi's electoral law. It's likely that voters will turn out to vote it out if the Court OKs it. Then we might consider talking about democracy in Italy, however you wish to define it.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 04:44:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would call Indira Gandhi's state of emergency a suspension of democracy for what she did during that period. It was of course a constitutional act that she abused.

I have difficulty accepting MacDonald's and Snowden's actions as a suspension of democracy, especially from an Italian viewpoint. After all the collapse of Prodi's government was simply due to MPs that had a price tag attached. In November 2010 after Fini left the Berlusconi coalition, a confidence vote was postponed for three weeks. During that time Berlusconi's emissaries bought opposition MPs and created an ex-novo party with the hilarious name "The Responsables' Party," somewhat funnier than MacDonald's "New Labour". Nor was it the only spontaneously generated party in parliament. Despite continuous calls by the President of the Republic to verify his mandate in parliament, Berlusconi dragged along an entire year without producing relevant legislation or policy.

The WSJ ignores this and misrepresents it as a sort of timed cryptic message launched by Napolitano so as to neatly package their cause-effect scenario. Napolitano was simply repeating himself. After all, with all these new parties Berlusconi was creating to keep himself in power, perhaps a little verification in parliament was in order.

If this meme on suspended democracy is to continue, just exactly when and by whom was it "suspended?"

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 06:04:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If this meme on suspended democracy is to continue, just exactly when and by whom was it "suspended?"

Democracy was suspended by the European Central Bank the moment it began to take interest rate policy hostage in an effort to foist a list of highly partisan demands on member states.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jan 14th, 2012 at 12:45:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The considerable pressure that was exercised in the days prior to these events would make it seem less than crystal clear that Monti really was the choice deriving most naturally from the will of the people.

You can often make a member of parliement vote differently from what would be his natural inclination. And I belive that many non Italian actors went way too far down that road -however much I hated the Berlusconi administration.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 07:17:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I understand your comments, the considerable pressure exercised abroad led to Berlusconi's fall. Berlusconi had already fallen since November 2010 when Fini pulled out of his coalition. Throughout 2011 his government simply survived by day to day manoeuvering. His obsession with his legal hassles, young snatch, and vain trivialities combined with the arrests of all his key henchmen and close collaboraors on charges ranging from mafia association to bribery to covert conspiracy to rigging public tender, eroded his political power and approval long before Italy's grave economic crisis caused concern abroad.

Merkel and Sarkozy were only flogging a dead horse, a further humiliation for a government and a coalition in disarray, a coalition that no longer had the votes in parliament nor prestige in Italian households.

An interesting aspect of the whole story is that all those nominated MPs can actually exercise their right to vote in all conscious without the druggery of rubberstamping every whim of the guy who appointed them to parliament. It was precisely because Berlusconi no longer had his majority in parliament that he resigned. His MPs suddenly discovered that, according to the constitution, they can actually exercise their vote in freewill. And they voted with their feet despite all the promises of personal favours thrown their way. Perhaps this aspect of the fall doesn't come across abroad. My fault.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 08:41:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I understand your comments, the considerable pressure exercised abroad led to Berlusconi's fall.

And also to Monti's choice by Napolitano (who IIRC got phone calls) and his approval by parliament. Pressure coming both from politicians and markets. If the Monti government still has a high approval rate, then the majority or of the population either ignores the government's policies thinking that Monti is still better than Berlu or the other idiots, or must have been shocked to think that austerity and market reforms are the way out of crisis. I disagree, but, at least, Italy having significant exports (IIRC), maybe austerity won't be a complete disaster like in Greece or Portugal.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 09:11:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or people have some respect for Monti and his cabinet. After all he was European Commissioner for 10 years. As far as I can remember, both he and Bonino enjoyed a good reputation as a result of their Commission tenures.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 09:18:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I include that in "ignores the government's policies thinking that Monti is still better than Berlu or the other idiots". Respect for the man for his past deeds is one thing.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 09:36:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Rest assured that everyone has felt the effects of Monti's manoeuver. I'll judge his policies in the long run, as most citizens have chosen to do, certainly not on a single decree law dictated by the previous government's formal promises to the EU and Italy's grave economic crisis in both domestic and international contexts. Let's leave magic wands to politicians and pundits.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 10:22:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is that the EUs and Italys grave economic crisis is made worse by the austerity, and that the demand that formal promises be kept is a tool that has been wielded before - remember how it was demanded that the Greek opposition signed of on austerity for Greece to receive their loans? It is used to enforce TINA, to remove options.

The Shock Doctrine has an example from Korea, how emergency loans were stopped until all presidential candidates had signed an agreement to enforce austerity.

Either Monti will lead Italy down the same path as Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain or he will at some point stand up to the ECB and refuse austerity. If not now, then when?

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 02:57:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Regarding the foreign pressure, prior to Berlusconi's exit, there was this, too:

Deepening Crisis Over Euro Pits Leader Against Leader - WSJ.com

When the market rout worsened on Aug. 3, Mr. Berlusconi gave a defiant speech before parliament declaring that his policies "have been judged adequate by Europe."

Two days later, the ECB contradicted him in a secret letter. Italy's deficit-cutting plan was "not sufficient," ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and his anointed successor, Mario Draghi, wrote to Mr. Berlusconi. The letter said Italy needed extensive economic overhaul to boost growth, and it set out detailed demands including greater competition, labor-market deregulation, reduced pension largess, a slimmer bureaucracy and deeper public spending cuts.

The implicit message: These reforms were the conditions for ECB intervention in the bond market.

Note that the ECB didn't just say that the planned budget-related measures aren't enough, but was dictating a specific set of policies which know no alternatives and go way beyond deficit reduction (policies Monti would then go on to implement). IMHO Italy, like Hungary, was between a rock and a hard place with Berlusconi and foreign economic blackmail.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 09:44:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Markets are run by the hypothalamus. They don't have higher order brain functions such as frontal lobe activity that could conceptualize and implement blackmail. They just strike at what moves or are driven by the smell of blood.

Re the specific policies [detailed demands including greater competition, labor-market deregulation, reduced pension largess, a slimmer bureaucracy and deeper public spending cuts], they have yet to be affronted save for a preliminary pension "reform."

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 10:36:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Markets are run by the Hypothalamus, but DoDo's quote is about the ECB and the rest of the article is about Merkel and others.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 10:42:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is this the notorious article that alleges Merkel opined about the internal affairs of a state with the president of that state, suggesting a crucial course of action?

Is this the article that has people abroad flapping in the wind about a so-called lose of democracy in Italy? And here I thought it was poor Miliband and his provincial ideas on premiership.

With the exception of a few crackpots here, no one gave the article credence. Not even Gasparri and the PdL took it seriously, much less Berlusconi. Sorry, it's just not done.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 12:47:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So are all those stories of secret ECB letters we heard over the Summer false?

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 01:15:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll check out the ECB letter as I don't remember well. I probably wrote it off as journalistic fluff and didn't give it a thought.

There was a letter and the conversation but the content of the conversation as reported is simply untenable, just as the reconstruction of events in the article. Supposed coincidences are given the prestige of being consequential. It's flawed with fallacious reasoning at its marketed best.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 01:25:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I find the ECB letter wasn't dug up by WSJ, it was already dug up by other media back in September. Corriere della Sera brought the original in English in its entirety.

(BTW, to bring the discussion back to the diary subject a bit, I discovered the quote from the WSJ article in an article in Hungarian media about what conditions the IMF and the ECB might pose Hungary's government for a loan.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 05:08:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given the timing and the context of the letter, I can't see anything unique or particularly important in it. Even the Italian Left was mild in its comments, pointing out the BCE's emphasis on growth and fairly redundant call for "reforms." The indignados did attack the letter in a letter consigned to President Napolitano by their delegation.

I guess it goes something like this: Look our job is to defend the euro and since you've made shambles of your country's economy and a lot of broken promises, we'd like to help by buying sovereign debt on the secondary market without pissing off the Germans too much. All you gotta do is shape up with a few reforms, nothing staggering, show you're serious about stimulating growth. That way we can do our part.

That was the beginning of August. After three months of government paralysis and incompetence the markets had their say and the game got cruel.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 06:42:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Except that the ECB "reforms" with the claimed aim of providing growth will, in fact, do nothing of the sort. Because they are Hooverian quackery.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 10:07:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll try to make this short because a full reply would merit a lengthy reply. As I argue, context is important. The reforms requested are in the Italian context "rose water." It's been going on since the late eighties and some reforms were undertaken thanks to "Clean Hands." The governments associated with civil society in the 90's (Ciampi, Amato, Prodi, D'Alema, again Amato) did undertake some reforms. The Berlusconi governments undid or sabotaged all reforms that got in their way of restablishing a status quo ante. The brief Prodi government 2006-2008 tried again to introduce a series of reforms, Bersani was the driving force at the time, which were once again neutralized by Berlusconi's coalition with his last government. It's no wonder Italy is an economic mess and I argue that the primary responsability can be laid at the feet of Berlusconi's coalitions.

The BCE has simply requested reforms that are long overdue and notorious. There's nothing particularly grave about them save for the fact that had they been undertaken by a responsible polity in the past two decades they would not have the traumatic effect they are now having.

As for your take on the BCE I'll have to read up on the diaries published here the past years since I don't have a full grasp of your position or of the other contributors who are far more well versed in economy and macroeconomic systems than I can ever pretend. Apparently there is a dim view of the BCE here that may go beyond its effective powers and what appears to be its toeing to the euromark.

One further note is that the letter was signed by Draghi and had a sort of casualness to it. It would not have been written in the same tone to another institutional head. The text recalls a series of measures that Draghi had often expressed while head of the Bank of Italy. As Head of the Bank of Italy Draghi systematically produced scientific studies of Italy's social-economic reality. These studies were constantly attacked,often with contempt, by Berlusconi, Finance minister Tremonti, Bossi and assorted government figures, since the studies were at logggerheads with Berlusconi's facile  propaganda. Draghi was perceived as a menace to the government's power and a possible political rival. So the possibility of Draghi going abroad to the BCE was a welcome event. The plan was to put a Tremonti flunky once again in control of the Central Bank, as the previous Fazio, and with Draghi abroad, he wouldn't be a high profile rival to Berlusconi's power.

A long and sterile battle followed with the harping over Bini Smaghi and the government's refusal to follow formal procedure and undersign the candidate chosen by the Board of the Bank of Italy. This sterile battle, which lasted months, finally ended with the surprise compromise of Draghi's closest collaborator and ideator of the socio-economic studies that so irked the powers that be.

Berlusconi and Tremonti lost the battle and the war.

And that is the context of that letter.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 04:23:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There are three issues with the letter: first, the recommended economic policies; second, the recommendation of a specific set of policies as a solution to a problem, not leaving room for alternatives; third, the entire first point and parts of the others go beyond the mandate of the ECB. I think these are true even with the context you give about Draghi. Furthermore, as in Hungary, I think it is bad to think that if two sides battle then both cannot be wrong, also when one is a crook and the other respected.

The ECB letter's non-budget-related recommendations are pro-business and anti-labour throughout. It recommends large-scale privatization, in particular at local level (which was far from being entirely controlled by Belusconi) and in services. The budget-related recipes are ones that have been applied several times across the world, but usually only achieved a prolongation or (severe) worsening of a crisis, as the spending cutbacks also led to economic contraction which led to falling income.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 02:20:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most of what you said has been going on for the past decade: anti-labour provisions, shoddy haphazard privatization, erosion of benefits, frozen incomes eroded by inflation and rising costs, deteriorating schools and services, indiscriminate cross-the-board spending cutbacks by Tremonti. Aggravated by an utter nyet to any program that might stimulate growth or attract investors. No wonder Italy has a mass braindrain diaspora working abroad. It's no wonder the ECB letter got such a cynical or non-plussed response here. We're already vaccinated.

As for the ECB exceeding its mandate here and there, it would be nice to discuss if that is effectively the case.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Tue Jan 10th, 2012 at 05:16:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given that the ECB has no mandate what so ever to make recommendations on fiscal and structural policy of member states, it certainly is exceeding its mandate.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jan 14th, 2012 at 12:39:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right: Quirinale smentisce Wsj su Merkel: Non venne avanzata alcuna richiesta di cambiare Premier.

The Italian Presidency denies SWJ reports on Merkel: no request to change PM was made.

The WSJ claimed:

This Wall Street Journal reconstruction, based on interviews with more than two dozen policy makers, including many leading actors, as well as examinations of key documents, reveals how Germany responded to the dangers in Italy by imposing its power on a divided euro zone. Ms. Merkel, widely criticized for not dealing forcefully with the crisis in its early phase, was at the center of the action, grappling with personal tensions and Byzantine politics among the 17 euro nations.


tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 01:18:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is this the notorious article that alleges Merkel opined about the internal affairs of a state with the president of that state, suggesting a crucial course of action?

No, it alleges that Merkel demanded, not "suggested," a certifiably insane course of action, not a "highly crucial" one.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 01:55:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corrected. The WSJ alleges that Merkel demanded the certifiably insane course of action of pretending Silvio's head in a hatbox just as the coroner arrived to pronounce him dead.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 06:59:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series