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Actually even if a party had a two-thirds majority in the US, it would still be very hard to pass a constitutional amendment in such a surprisingly brief time. In the US an amendment must also be ratified by 75% of the states, usually within a time limit.

As Berlusconi learned, it is very difficult to change the Italian constitution. He never ceased trying but got nowhere. (And on the side, this continuous harkening to change the Italian Constitution to this very day is extremely iritating, all the more so considering the stature of most of the parliamentary nominees.)

So what immediately catches the eye is why it was so easy for Orban to get away with writing up a new constitution practically by himself in such a brief time and promulgate it.

By the way, I've been looking for a decent English draft of the new Hungarian Constitution, and suppose this is the best translation as opposed to the official version. I presume this draft is not the final version.

It appears there are several misleading translations and omissions in the official English translation that have been pointed out by NGO's.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sun Jan 8th, 2012 at 07:05:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the US an amendment must also be ratified by 75% of the states, usually within a time limit.

IOW the supermajority needed is not two-thirds but three-quarters in some bodies (though isn't it lower in the Senate?), which would make the venture harder. It also helps that the US parliament is bicameral, Hungary's unicameral.

As Berlusconi learned, it is very difficult to change the Italian constitution.

He never had the required super-majority, or did he?

Constitution of Italy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In order to make it virtually impossible to replace with a dictatorial regime, it is difficult to modify the Constitution; to do so (under Article 138) requires two readings in each House of Parliament and, if the second of these are carried with a simple majority (i.e. 50%+1) rather than two-thirds, a referendum.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 02:14:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Berlusconi's attempt to change the consitution through a simple parliamentary majority was shot down by the obligatory referendum in 2006 while a constitutional change proposed by the Olive coalition in 2001 passed by a large majority of citizens. The former was an improvised sectarian initiative designed mainly to please the Lega Nord while the latter was clearly in the interest of the nation. The Italian constitution has some provisional or transitional sections that were to be changed over time. Beyond the 2001 modifications, those reforms have yet to be undertaken.

Attempts were undertaken in the so-called Bicameral Roundtable in the late 90's. It was a political trap exploited by Berlusconi to give himself an aura of statesmanship. Once he had what he wanted in terms of positive public exposure and with elections around the corner, he simply walked out without an explanation. All the better given that the Left had made ridiculous consessions. And risk to continue to do so if ever in power again.

There's nothing worse than a party that stoops to actuating the opposition's program.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 03:59:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So indeed he had no supermajority. This is (another) good thing about proportional representation: one side would need almost an actual two-thirds majority of the vote to win two-thirds of seats.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 09:50:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It took slightly more than a year to ratify the 18th amendment. The 23rd took about 10 months, and the 26th took less than 5 months. It's become harder since then: the 27th (and last) took over 2 centuries...
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 02:30:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...and the ERA failed to be ratified by its deadline.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 03:42:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Returning to the US parallel. For Fidesz's two-thirds majority, the key as winning almost every one of the single-member election districts in Hungary's mixed election system. In the US first-past-the-post system, a supermajority in a single election is possible with even smaller majorities. However, it would need the end of the bipartisan system for the situation to arise: either one party would have to alienate the majority of its voters enough to stay away from the vote (as more or less happened in Hungary) or split in two equally strong parts with weak geographical correlation and divide votes (somewhat similarly to the way Thatcher got her crushing election victory while Labour and the SDP-Liberal alliance split votes). Due to the non-simultaneous Senate and gubernatoral elections, most of the time, this situation would have to hold for two years for the other major party to win the supermajority in all three Constitution-relevant bodies. However, checking the current list, I see the half of the currently 20 Democrat governors are up for re-election (or replacement) in 2015. So would there be no shift favouring the Democrats until then and would the above charted extraordinary situation arise in 2014, the Republicans would have the opportunity to gain all the supermajorities in one year, even without winning over a single new swing voter.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 09:34:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Amongst US states only Nebraska has a unicameral legislative body and all, I believe, have three independent branches - legislative, executive and judicial - generally mirroring the federal structure. In addition, all powers not specifically granted to the federal government are retained by the states. This preference for separation of powers, even in layers, goes back to the formulation of the constitution in the 18th century and draws on Montesquieu's Esprit des Lois, Livy and Aristotle as well as the history of every republic known to the founders.

I have often chaffed at the difficulty of getting any change enacted, but the constitutional system has stood up pretty well and I shudder to think what a new US constitutional convention would devise. In the USA, instead of rewriting the constitution the financiers simply bought most of the significant players in the system. As Montesquieu noted long ago any system will work when run by virtuous men while no system will withstand being overrun by evil men, or to that general effect.    

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 12:54:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it was Mills who also adopted that argument and proposed a proportional system which would reduce the risk of state seizure by private interests. But as Berlusconi has shown the proportional system can be gamed also.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 01:03:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On the other hand, the fact that real estate law has, since before the Constitutional Convention, been state law has made it very difficult for the financiers and their minions to totally obstruct justice regarding the criminal behavior regarding foreclosures and disregard of state law on conveyance of title. A few state Attorneys General can threaten the entire Mortgage Backed Securities business, which is enough to blow up the existing financial system. It turns out that the power to enforce the law is also the power to destroy.  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jan 9th, 2012 at 01:14:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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