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Predictions 10/6: House of (un)Representatives
I have evaluated incumbency and redistricting advantages quantitatively. I now believe that these two phenomena contribute approximately equally to an overall advantage of R+2.5+-1.0%. In other words, Democrats need to win the popular vote by 2.5+-1.0% in order to achieve near-parity in House seats. I was wrong about thinking there was little tilt in the playing field. It's substantial.
Looking at Huffington Post's average of polls for generic ballot it is essentially even, which gives the victory to the Republicans. I don't know to how large degree results follow the generic ballot polls.
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