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It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Dec 26th, 2012 at 04:46:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You see clearly the years when the big farms had to deal with serial defects  - very early on at Horns Rev (where all the gearboxes had to be replaced within the first year or two), and after a few years at Nysted (where the gearbox problems were less publicized but did require large scale action with the same performance impact as on Horns Rev). Anf both are now performing at high levels (and have given their respective manufacturers, Vestas and Siemens, massive experience which they are now using profitably on their new turbine models)

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Dec 26th, 2012 at 10:51:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Notice also the strong inter-annual variation, which is normal and independent of machine performance.

Offshore wind technology is moving completely away from the standard technology represented by these statistics.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Dec 26th, 2012 at 12:44:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And Vindby and Tunø Knob are onshore projects which happen to be in water at the coast, though they were called pioneering offshore. Of course they have the best capacity factors possible onshore, but don't reach current offshore standards. They are meters offshore, if my memory hasn't rusted.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Wed Dec 26th, 2012 at 12:49:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you check the report, he actually shows himself the lack of a clear trend in raw data for UK on-shore, too (page 24):



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Dec 29th, 2012 at 06:58:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep. Teletubbie version: newer wind farms performed well and continue to do so; older ones performed more poorly and still do. Ergo: performance diminishes with age... hmm, isn't this what they call the 'ecological fallacy'? The confounder being the year of construction.

Why am I reminded of the patricide asking the court for clemency on the grounds of being an orphan?

by mustakissa on Tue Jan 1st, 2013 at 09:33:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

newer wind farms performed well and continue to do so; older ones performed more poorly and still do. Ergo: performance diminishes with age... hmm, isn't this what they call the 'ecological fallacy'? The confounder being the year of construction.

Makes a lot of sense...thanks.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 2nd, 2013 at 12:06:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What you have pointed at is standard when a new technology is introduced into the market.  The IBM 1401 solid state computer was a huge hit in the market, solving a number of major business problems, when it was introduced in 1959.  Five years later IBM introduced the System/360 a technically superior product to the 1401, yet the 1401 continued to sell until it was withdrawn in 1971.  Even after IBM no longer sold the 1401 the machines continued to adequately accomplish business tasks; I worked on a 1401 in 1976 (IIRC) programming new business tasks and extending functionality of existing programs.

Let me list a couple of things:

  1.  People invest in technology when the existing functionality meets their needs (or financial forecasting, financial ratios, cash flow analysis, & etc.) at a specific point in time.  

  2.  The GO/NO-GO decision to purchase technology at a point in time is made with the knowledge at that time.  (Like, duh.)  

  3.  It is doubtful the "superior" IBM System/360 would have been built if the "inferior" 1401 had failed in the market.

  4.  It doesn't matter if a "superior" machine is available latter when the "inferior" machine is meeting the needs, tasks, goals, financial return, etc. assigned at the time of the GO decision.

  5.  Both users and producers of technology climb a learning curve.  The users learn how to use the stuff better, the producers learn how to make the stuff better, and (ideally) they interact in a virtuous positive feedback to the benefit of both.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Jan 2nd, 2013 at 12:41:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep. And once a wind park has been built, the electricity it produces is essentially (almost) free. No reason to take it down unless you're short of sites for new ones.
by mustakissa on Wed Jan 2nd, 2013 at 02:31:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some of the oldest commercial WTs in the world were allowed to run up to 30 years before repowering began, with many reaching 25 years.

They were known as "cash cows."

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Jan 2nd, 2013 at 02:49:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I could write a book on the stupidity of using information known at Time Stamp + 20 to poo-poo the return of tech installed at Time Stamp + 0.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Wed Jan 2nd, 2013 at 03:00:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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