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It would be interesting to know exactly how (ie what econometrics software, and how it was tortured) but if the possibilities are many I doubt it would be worth the effort.

According to the report, he uses Stata. I have neither training nor license for that, so I can't reproduce precisely what he did.

But, given the number of parameters he's fitting, my guess would be that he ran a simple model and then expanded the number of model parameters until he got a result he liked, and never bothered to check for misspecification.

At least that's how I would do it if I wanted to do cargo cult science for a belief tank: It produces a superficially plausible result and checking the methodology requires surgical reconstruction. Which means people who don't know better (I plead guilty) tend to take it at face value.

(As an aside, I did know that the author was a liar - I just stopped investigating when I'd found the easiest to detect lie.)

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Dec 27th, 2012 at 06:36:43 PM EST
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