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I note that most candidates get a bump without Le Pen. It would indicate to me that most of her voters abstains if she is not in the race. Or at least that they say they will abstain.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Fri Feb 10th, 2012 at 07:07:57 AM EST
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Hollande is on 33 without Le Pen, which is little more than his usual score over the past few weeks. Sarkozy is the one who gets the big bump. But it is quite impossible to know how Le Pen and the FN would lead their electorate - no doubt into revolt, if she were denied the chance to be candidate.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Feb 10th, 2012 at 09:06:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Though I see a couple of other polls without Le Pen, where Sarko doesn't get that bump. And in one, Hollande gets 37%.

The IFOP poll where they were level pegging at 33% got more media attention, no need to explain why.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Feb 10th, 2012 at 09:22:57 AM EST
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