The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
Romney 32% (sinking from his high of 37%)
Santorum 30% (continually rising)
Gingrich 16% (Another Not-Romney bites the dust)
Paul 8% (Don't laugh, may be a factor in Tampa)
While PPP showing a nation-wide Frothy surge:
Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' he's now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney.
PPP analysis confirms what I've been saying for some time now:
The best thing Romney might have going for him right now is Gingrich's continued presence in the race. If Gingrich dropped out 58% of his supporters say they would move to Santorum, while 22% would go to Romney and 17% to Paul. Santorum gets to 50% in the Newt free field to 28% for Romney and 15% for Paul.
but they've been able to put some numbers to it.
The Santorum surge is a direct result of a closed door meeting of over 150 evangelical leaders early last month.
The move represents an eleventh-hour effort by social conservatives one week out from the crucial South Carolina primary to unify around a single candidate and blunt the momentum of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, whom many evangelicals consider insufficiently conservative.
These leaders represent a significant percentage of GOP primary voters, have established organizations, have people already staffing those organizations, can put "boots on the ground" in the precincts, and have their own money raising networks. Together these people reflect a serious and substantial percentage of the GOP primary vote.
Possibly reflecting this, Santorum has become the Not-Romney of choice in Michigan and has a goodly lead:
But with 50% of voters still willing to change, it's all soft for Frothy and Romney could buy himself another primary win.
No polling I can find for Arizona (Feb. 28, along with Michigan) or Washington state (Mar. 3.)
Three Super Tuesday (Mar. 7) states: Vermont, Ohio, and Georgia, have started voting.
Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by Migeru - Jun 15 39 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 17 20 comments
by Katrin - Jun 12 88 comments
by Jerome a Paris - Jun 9 68 comments
by DoDo - Jun 9 22 comments
by Zwackus - Jun 11 64 comments
by Metatone - Jun 8 4 comments
by Ted Welch - Jun 3 1 comment
by Frank Schnittger - Jun 1720 comments
by Migeru - Jun 1539 comments
by Katrin - Jun 1288 comments
by DoDo - Jun 1126 comments
by Zwackus - Jun 1164 comments
by Jerome a Paris - Jun 968 comments
by DoDo - Jun 922 comments
by Metatone - Jun 84 comments
by DoDo - Jun 671 comments
by DoDo - Jun 418 comments
by Ted Welch - Jun 31 comment
by gmoke - Jun 211 comments
by Frank Schnittger - May 3113 comments
by A swedish kind of death - May 3113 comments
by ceebs - May 2927 comments
by ARGeezer - May 2915 comments
by Zwackus - May 271 comment
by DoDo - May 2631 comments
by DoDo - May 2346 comments
by Metatone - May 1490 comments