The Irish subsidiaries of foreign banks have made heavy losses borne by their parents but not by the state in terms of the bank guarantee or the state recapitalisation of Irish banks.  The main threat to Irish banks is the continued precipitous decline of property prices which is tending toward the "adverse" scenario envisaged in the bank recapitalisation. Irish banks are heavy users of LTRO - that is where the main dependency on the ECB lies.  But does that require a YES vote to continue?  We will still be in the Eurozone. My suspicion is that the main problem with a NO vote will be the need to get back to market funding of sovereign and anglo debt sooner rather than later - which will lead to a default if market rates are unsustainable.

Index of Frank's Diaries