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I'm guesstimating we'll see around 10% drop in human population by 2022 as the weather pattern shifts start affecting food production.   If regional water wars - between India and Pakistan, say - break out it could go much, much, higher.  The rumor-mill has it the last time they went at it nuclear weapons were released to the theater commanders.

Lowered food production, higher food prices, Austerity invoked economic depression, leading to malnutrition, thus lowering human ability to fight-off disease, spread of antibiotic resistance in disease inducing bacteria ...

Looks like things are about to get "interesting."

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Mon Feb 6th, 2012 at 07:31:10 PM EST
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That's half  billion to a billion extra deaths in a decade... 10 to 20 times the mortality of WWII.

Gah.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 6th, 2012 at 07:37:20 PM EST
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Call it around 700,000,000.  Give or take.

We're starting off with 600,000,000 to 950,000,000 already "on the edge."  

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Mon Feb 6th, 2012 at 08:11:01 PM EST
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There are alleviation measures that could be taken,e.g., been known for at least ten years investing in pest-proof storage bins in Africa would increase their available food by twenty to thirty percent.  However, building grain bins ain't sexy enough for NGOs or governments and the trans-nats won't do it because they can't make money doing it.

As I've said before, horticultural oriented food production increases total food value - like that dude in the Sudan (?) who discovered planting trees increased his vegetable harvest - tho' by lowering the yield from field cropping (think wheat,) the profits from field cropping, increasing animal feed costs (think corn (zea mays) which decreases total global production of animal protein, placing a greater reliance on vegetable protein sources (think wheat) which we've just lowered the total global production by a switch to horticultural oriented food production.

This ain't rocket science.  It is much more complicated and Complex than that.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Mon Feb 6th, 2012 at 08:24:56 PM EST
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