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Primaries (caucuses) tomorrow in Colorado and Minnesota and a delegate-less, pointless, election contest in Missouri and ...

Romney up in Colorado, close race in Minnesota.

In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his  one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.

Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul.

What both states have in common is that Gingrich has fallen precipitously since our last polls in them. In Colorado Gingrich was in first place with a 19 point lead in early December. His support has declined 19 points since then and his net favorability has dropped 33 points from +41 (64/23) to only +8 (49/41). Gingrich has had a similarly large decline in Minnesota, but there it's much more abrupt.  We polled the state only two weeks ago but in that time he's dropped 14 points from 36% to 22%, and his favorability has 26 points from +34 (59/25) to +8 (47/39). That after glow from South Carolina has worn off real fast.

Tuesday has the potential to be a big day for Rick Santorum. In addition to these two polls, a Missouri survey we conducted last weekend found him with 45% to 34% for Romney and 13% for Paul. Given how quickly things have moved in this race I wouldn't assume Santorum still has that lead, especially given the momentum Romney has after big wins in Florida and Nevada. But nevertheless it looks like Santorum has a decent chance at wins in Minnesota and Missouri, and a second place finish in Colorado. 72 hours from now he [Santorum] may have supplanted Gingrich as the top alternative to Romney.

My mind.  It boggles.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Mon Feb 6th, 2012 at 08:50:03 PM EST
Romney now losing pretty badly in Missouri and Minnesota.  Mittens seems to be having some trouble in Midwest, particularly the western portion.

Santorum 33
Mitt 24
Jabbah 22

Santorum 45
Mitt 32
Paul 19

Keep in mind Missouri is nonbinding and has the binding caucus in March.  The primary is meaningless for everything but optics.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Feb 7th, 2012 at 06:47:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Also: Mittens's favorable/unfavorable (40/54) is worse than Obama's approve/disapprove (45/50) in Missouri.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Feb 7th, 2012 at 06:52:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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