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Budget bungle forces snap state election | Germany | DW.DE | 15.03.2012

The short-lived red-green coalition in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia has been forced to call snap elections after failing to get the backing for its new budget.

The red-green minority government in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has collapsed after just over 18 months under Premier Hannelore Kraft. It's been forced to call a snap election after all three opposition parties rejected the 2012 budget proposal.

by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Mar 15th, 2012 at 02:13:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any polls to see where it is heading?

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by A swedish kind of death on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 06:00:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, red-green. Now with majority!

 Two instant polls:

SPD 37%, CDU 34%, greens 13%, pirates 6%, left 4%, FDP 2%.

http://politbarometer.zdf.de/ZDFde/inhalt/5/0,1872,8492389,00.html?dr=1

and:

SPD 38%, CDU 34%, greens 14%, pirates 5%, left 4%, FDP 2%

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/nrwtrend112_mtb-1_pos-2.html#colsStructure

Looks pretty obvious so far.

by IM on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 06:33:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
For comparison: the May 2010 election results from dvx's NRW Elections Diary
Party List		  vote	  Change  Seats  Change
Turnout/total		  59.32%   -3.66    181      -6
CDU (Christian Democrat)  34.56%  -10.28     67     -22
SPD (Social Democrats)	  34.48%   -2.62     67      -7
Greens			  12.12%   +5.95     23     +11
FDP ([neo]liberals)	   6.73%   +0.57     13      +1
Left Party (Socialist)    5.60%   +2.51     11     +11
How does seat allocation work? Is it purely proportional?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 06:39:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fairly proportional  If a party gets more direct seats than their proportional result is, the other parties get extra seats to restore proportionality.
by Katrin on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 06:50:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What are the prospects for Linke or FDP direct seats?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 07:15:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there a 5% minimum to get seats? Could the Left and FDP both fail to get in, to the benefit of the Pirates?

Allocating 181 seats to 37-38% SPD, 34% CDU, 13-14% Green and 5-6% Pirates one gets

75( +8) SPD
68( +1) CDU
27( +4) Green
11(+11) Pirates
 0(-11) Left
 0(-13) FDP

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 07:08:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. But the Pirates may still be within the margin of error of failing to get in as well.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 07:19:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If we trust the polls, pirates are in ~6%, the left is out with ~4% and the FDP is out with ~2%. (threshold 5%).
But of course pirates and left are still within the margin of error. And the left can hope that these results can change during the campaign.

Neither party, nor even the greens can hope to gain a constituency seat. 2010 only SPD and CDU gained constituency seats. Perhaps this time the greens succeed in one of the four cologne constituencies. But surely not pirates or left or FDP.

So a four party parliament: SPD - CDU - greens - pirates seems most plausible right now.

by IM on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 07:29:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Zambia coalition?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 07:41:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Now that is new. You should trademark the expression.
by IM on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 07:42:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Katrin on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 06:36:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We're assembling enough information for a diary... Any takers?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 06:40:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Umm. Okay, but not much more than we already have collected here, and not before the evening. The sun shines now and my garden needs attention.
by Katrin on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 07:09:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Recall: Minority government in NRW By DoDo
With significant pressure from part of the base, NRW SPD leader Hannelore Kraft first tried talks towards the left-of-centre version, "red-red-green" (SPD+Left Party+Greens). But that seems to have been an alibi operation, because the end with a declaration that the NRW Left Party is unfit for government came after just a few hours of talks.

...

This, however, would not have changed majorities in the federal upper house, and that ahead of crucial votes on energy and the austerity package. For this reason, the federal SPD leaders were angered -- and the Greens even moreso. The Greens felt taken for granted, and their leaders launched unprecedented open attacks in the media. With effect: days later, SPD leader Kraft announced the minority government option: a government that seeks allies of occasion for each law it presents. The excuse was a similar scuffle that emerged between the NRW FDP and CDU: the NRW FDP was miffed by the CDU's continuing courting of the SPD in the hopes of a Grand Coalition, and declared that they don't feel bound to them -- which Kraft interpreted as the end of the CDU-FDP coalition and thus a change of the situation.

After four weeks of coalition talks, the two parties approved the coalition agreement, the Left Party approved an abstaining in the vote on the wannabe minority government, while the CDU declared fundamental opposition. The vote was held yesterday (Wednesday). The rules are that simple majority is enough in the second round. In both rounds, there was full party discipline, that is: 90 votes for the minority government, 80 against, 11 abstaining.



There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 06:05:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was really surprised the minority government lasted that long. The german political culture not being  favorable to minority government.

And since the polls always said that new elections would result in a clear red-green majority, the outcome now was more or less predetermined.

by IM on Fri Mar 16th, 2012 at 06:36:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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