Brief Greek election polling update | 33 comments (33 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Brief Greek election polling update (none / 0)

Unless i made a key entry error the total of those shown is 83%. Is there any estimates on whether those that might fall into the other 17% might vote and how they might vote? And are any of the anit-troika parties proposing clear alternatives to the present course.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 01:12:07 AM EST

Re: Brief Greek election polling update (4.00 / 4)

You missed 12%! They add up to 95%. The rest of the 95% is "others", which could mean anything from "Arma Politon" (yet another splinter group from the pulverization of the socialists), to the Hunter party, to the Communist Party of Greece (Marxist - Leninist) (which BTW recently announced that is re-merging with the Marxist Leninist Communist Party of Greece. A monumental move...)

The anti-troika parties propose:

The Communist Party: the Nationalization of all major industries and a process of seccession from the EU and leaving the euro, refuse paying back any debt.

SYRIZA: Demanding a 3-5 year moratorium on payments, that would include using a small part of the bail-out money to heat=up the economy on a plan that would include creation of public sector jobs ("green", social, infrastructure etc) and nationalization of at least part of the banking system, through which SMEs could be funded, along with an internal debt haircut for indebted households and businesses proportional to income. Annulment of changes in labor law

DemAr: The renegotiation of parts of the treaty, and the creation of a plan that would substitute cost-cutting measures striking at the core of the welfare state with other expenditures and a review of labor laws. Working with the troika and the EU to find a gentler path towards restructuring. They are also implying that such negotiations might be (starting with the French elections) much more politically viable in the near future.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:22:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brief Greek election polling update (none / 0)

talos:

You missed 12%! They add up to 95%. The rest of the 95% is "others", which could mean anything from "Arma Politon" (yet another splinter group from the pulverization of the socialists), to the Hunter party, to the Communist Party of Greece (Marxist - Leninist) (which BTW recently announced that is re-merging with the Marxist Leninist Communist Party of Greece. A monumental move...)

And of course Κόμμα Πειρατών Ελλάδας.

That would be the Pirates. Founded January this year, I hope they manage to pass the hurdles to run (there is always hurdels), as it builds organisation and gives experience.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 08:51:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brief Greek election polling update (4.00 / 3)

IMHO the Pirates shouldn't run this year because 1. They managed to publish a manifesto without a single reference to the crisis and 2. They will probably cost the Greens their parliamentary entry, which is IMHO not good. They should wait it out and try to develop a political range that goes beyond what they offer, which is now a single issue party, when that single issue is not the economy won't gain much traction in a country that is undergoing a socioeconomic collapse

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:10:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brief Greek election polling update (none / 1)

Yes, they appear to be the startup version. It tends to get 0.1-0.6% of votes (if they missed that there is a crisis, I would guess more 0.1 then 0.6). The reason I am not particularly afraid that these will come out of the greens (because the greens missing parliament would be bad), is that the Pirates effectively tend to strenghten more established parties that has the same issues somewhere on their agenda, usually the greens. They are more effective in getting attention to the policies then getting the votes, as voters tend not to vote for a party that says nothing on other important issues of the day.

However, the Pirate parties that has reached electoral success has usually gone through this phase. Traction on the issues and doing the election things builds a group, that then realises they need more to get more votes and start to process how they can expand their agenda without breaking the existing group.

That was why my hope was for electoral participation, not electoral success.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Mar 18th, 2012 at 04:31:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brief Greek election polling update (4.00 / 3)

Working with the troika and the EU to find a gentler path towards restructuring.

For a re-negotiation to produce significant results, you need (1) a partner, and (2) an "or else" option the other side wants to avoid. IOW DemAr's position seems suicidal and weaker than I expected. However, what if there is a troika-critical majority in parliament? Would they be capable of seeing SYRIZA as the supplier of the "or else" option? if not, then it would appear to me that only a collapse of ND would provide for an outcome presenting any hope for Greece.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 02:28:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brief Greek election polling update (4.00 / 2)

Frankly I think their position is a compromise between various factions in the party, ranging from pro-SYRIZA to pro-Papademos. In a critical moment I think they'll break in two. Interestingly Anexartiti Ellines, might be more capable of supporting SYRIZA's position on a very limited emergency government agenda.

But yes, ND is the critical factor now, whether they'll hold or fold during the campaign, and whether they won't shy away from elections. Because IMHO if the polls turn even weirder, the powers that be will try to postpone the elections...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:31:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brief Greek election polling update (none / 0)

Much closer to elections date, things will change significantly IMO.

The Centrists (PASOK+ND) will zip the "nuclear option" of US vs Chaos and it will be enough to scare lots of people.

Pasok will attack the Left viciously and ND will do the same against their deserters and those to their right.

The rigged election law will take care of the rest.

The only unknown is if true violence is just around the corner.

by Euroliberal on Sun Mar 18th, 2012 at 05:59:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brief Greek election polling update (4.00 / 2)

Yes, I am hearing this scenario a lot. The only problem is that for a huge number of people the "Chaos" option is moot. They are already living destroyed lives. The last time PASOK attacked the left viciously, the left doubled its percentages, because the opprobrium against the accusers is such that an attack sounds like high praise. They will play the "fear of being kicked out of the Euro" of course - but still...

I think violence is indeed around the corner...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun Mar 18th, 2012 at 06:38:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brief Greek election polling update (none / 1)

Violence of whom against whom?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 18th, 2012 at 06:40:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Brief Greek election polling update (none / 0)

Well.... the recent polls have given the impression to many that the anti-status quo forces will finally get a chance to -let's say- make an impact on policy by having greater representation.
An outcome which would relegate them (once more) into irrelevancy might not be so readily accepted as the "true will" of the people and all that will be needed to transform their justified indignation from protests to outright violence would be for ex. accusations of fraud or other conspiracy theories which are much more believable in the current Greek political context.

The electoral law is rigged and nobody disputes that. All it takes, is for 10% of the vote to be wasted on parties that never had a chance to gain 1 seat and other small parties currently polling at 3%-5% not making it afterall. PASOK (my opinion) will probably go as high as 15%-18% which will lead to a centrist govnt lead by.... the Troika/IMF candidate, Papademos.

by Euroliberal on Mon Mar 19th, 2012 at 06:08:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Political violence in Greece (none / 1)

Exiled Online:
DISPATCH FROM GREECE: YOGURT AS A FORM OF POLITICAL PROTEST (By Kostas Kallergis, MARCH 11, 2012)

Originally, "yogurt throwing" was a means of protest against authority by Greek youngsters in the late 1950s. They were called "Teddy Boys", a name borrowed from the homonymous British subculture. You see, food throwing was traditionally a form of protest (preferable rotten eggs or tomatoes) but it was only in 1950s when the plastic cup substituted yogurt's classic ceramic pot, a marketing move that made yogurt a non-lethal weapon. The trend of yogurt-throwing was fiercely fought by the authorities with the legendary "Law 4000/1958″ according to which offenders were arrested, had their heads shaved and paraded through the streets of Athens.
...
The law was withdrawn in 1983, by Andreas Papandreou. In 1997, a builder who was member of the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) threw a yogurt on the then Minister of Employment, Miltiadis Papaioannou (now Minister of Justice) and his then Deputy Minister Christos Protopappas (now PASOK's Parliamentary Group Representative) . The court decided that yogurt throwing was not an offense that had to be tried automatically but only if a lawsuit is filed by the victim.
...
According to an article of Eleftherotypia newspaper, written by Georgia Linardou, in 2011 two members of the government and one MP have been attacked with yogurts. Last March, the vice president of the government Theodoros Pangalos was attacked while having dinner at a town just outside Athens. Some months later, Minister of Interior Haris Kastanidis was attacked in a similar fashion while watching "Midnight in Paris" at a cinema in Thessaloniki. Liana Kanelli, an MP with the Communist Party of Greece, has also been attacked with yogurt in June 2011, while she was trying to get through a block of protesters in order to reach the Parliament for the vote on the Mid-Term Program.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Mar 19th, 2012 at 09:44:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Political violence in Greece (4.00 / 3)

For the March 25th independence day parades, the anti-terrorist squad and the secret service will be on the look-out for people carrying yoghurt or eggs in their bags. The major media (regime-friendly all of them) and various state-intellectuals are on a campaign to convince everyone that these forms of protest are morally equivalent to shooting people.
A batch of protesters who booed the President in a previous occasion are on trial now for "insulting the office of the president" or something equally North-Korean sounding...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Mar 19th, 2012 at 10:07:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Brief Greek election polling update | 33 comments (33 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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