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I don't see Iran going for any more nuclear reactors.

They appear to be up for the 'Transition through Gas' strategy I outlined in Tehran a few months ago, and the recent political conclusion of the Ahmadinejad faction's play for power appears to have removed political/rent-seeking blocks the strategy faced.

Watch this space.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Apr 3rd, 2012 at 07:10:43 AM EST
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Eh.. "lots of civilian nukes" would constitute a facesaving exit for the iranian regime, yes? Certainly just exiting nuclear technology would be hideously embarrasing to them after picking this big a fight over it.
And since it would directly substitute for the insanely wasteful way they currently burn natural gas for power, the economics look reasonable too, so a deal where several members of the security council sells the iranians a couple of reactors each, and get to have their experts crawl all over the iranian nuclear complex as a part of the deal seems likely to happen.
by Thomas on Tue Apr 3rd, 2012 at 08:44:12 AM EST
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I'm not saying they'll exit the existing reactor at Bushehr now it's working. For reasons of face, as you say.

But I see zero chance of them acquiring any more.

The 'transition through gas' strategy which they appear to have bought into will solve the problem of wasteful use of carbon fuels generally and gas in particular.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Apr 3rd, 2012 at 03:55:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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