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Hugh being Hugh, demographics comes into his essay at many points. I don't know if I agree with his diagnosis of German wage restraint, but I'd be remiss not to post it:

Essentially mature economies become dependent on export expansion for growth either if they are in the aftermath of a credit driven consumer boom (and hence deleveraging, weakening domestic demand) or their population median age rises above a certain point (yet to be adequately calibrated) meaning that the demand for consumer credit no longer expands as the balance between savers and borrowers shifts across cohorts and across the life cycle. Hence Germany's wage adjustment is not something exceptional, or even reversible, but forms part of a natural process to reinforce competitiveness in the export sector of a society with a large elderly population and hence generate GDP growth.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Apr 15th, 2012 at 10:43:26 AM EST
Hugh appears to be convinced that the sun rises in the morning for demographic reasons ...
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 15th, 2012 at 10:48:09 AM EST
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Apparently, it's the economic weight of all the old people in Japan that pulls the Earth around in that direction and thus, the Sun rises in the East...
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Apr 15th, 2012 at 10:55:38 AM EST
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West Germany was an export-oriented economy from the 1950s and has not ceased to be. It would be interesting to see the boom-hangover or demographic shift explanation for that.

Further, is Hugh positing that no other Eurozone country is experiencing population ageing, and consequently the "natural process to reinforce competitiveness"? Only Germany?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 15th, 2012 at 11:09:33 AM EST
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All european countries are experiencing aging, but Germany is at the forefront.

I don't expect demographics to explain everything, but they have a strong influence, and more so when coupled with social institutions. At a minimum that's how I see the situation in Spain with regards to the regional differences.

res humą m'és alič

by Antoni Jaume on Sun Apr 15th, 2012 at 05:08:33 PM EST
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Demographics have an influence, but it seems most unlikely that it is the influence claimed by Edward Hugh.

Taking the percentage of over-65s in the total population (Eurostat, 01/01/2011) as a proxy for ageing, the leading Eurozone countries are:

  1. Germany...20.6%
  2. Italy..........20.3%
  3. Greece.....19.3%
  4. Portugal...18.2%

If a "natural" process of pressure on wages caused by ageing were at work, one would expect to see Italy, Greece and Portugal among the most "competitive" Eurozone countries.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Apr 16th, 2012 at 02:25:05 AM EST
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And in the longer run, as China's one-child policy results in lots of elderly Chinese, the most competitive countries will be in sub-Saharan Africa (along with Saudi Arabia).....
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Apr 16th, 2012 at 02:40:23 AM EST
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It's interesting how he doesn't develop the other factor that he himself mentions: the structure of consumer credit.

He posits that demography changes the balance between savers and borrowers, but doesn't explicate that this balance may be different in different places due to local culture and regulation. Further he doesn't account for the fact that in a Eurozone of free capital movement, savings and borrowings can and did have non-local effects...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Apr 16th, 2012 at 03:00:35 AM EST
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This excludes by (unmentioned and undiscussed) assumption the option of simply printing money for adequate fiscal policy.

(It's also bogus for a variety of other reasons, but that's the main one.)

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Apr 15th, 2012 at 04:03:34 PM EST
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