The European Tribune is a forum for thoughtful dialogue of European and international issues. You are invited to post comments and your own articles.
Please REGISTER to post.
Essentially mature economies become dependent on export expansion for growth either if they are in the aftermath of a credit driven consumer boom (and hence deleveraging, weakening domestic demand) or their population median age rises above a certain point (yet to be adequately calibrated) meaning that the demand for consumer credit no longer expands as the balance between savers and borrowers shifts across cohorts and across the life cycle. Hence Germany's wage adjustment is not something exceptional, or even reversible, but forms part of a natural process to reinforce competitiveness in the export sector of a society with a large elderly population and hence generate GDP growth.
Further, is Hugh positing that no other Eurozone country is experiencing population ageing, and consequently the "natural process to reinforce competitiveness"? Only Germany?
I don't expect demographics to explain everything, but they have a strong influence, and more so when coupled with social institutions. At a minimum that's how I see the situation in Spain with regards to the regional differences. res humą m'és alič
Taking the percentage of over-65s in the total population (Eurostat, 01/01/2011) as a proxy for ageing, the leading Eurozone countries are:
He posits that demography changes the balance between savers and borrowers, but doesn't explicate that this balance may be different in different places due to local culture and regulation. Further he doesn't account for the fact that in a Eurozone of free capital movement, savings and borrowings can and did have non-local effects...
(It's also bogus for a variety of other reasons, but that's the main one.)
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
by JakeS - May 15 7 comments
by ARGeezer - May 16 10 comments
by Nomad - May 10 14 comments
by Metatone - May 14 85 comments
by gmoke - May 17
by DoDo - May 12 10 comments
by Migeru - May 6 100 comments
by Migeru - May 7 8 comments
by ARGeezer - May 1610 comments
by JakeS - May 157 comments
by Metatone - May 1485 comments
by DoDo - May 1210 comments
by Nomad - May 1014 comments
by Migeru - May 78 comments
by marco - May 782 comments
by Migeru - May 6100 comments
by Ted Welch - May 35 comments
by afew - May 340 comments
by ceebs - May 26 comments
by gmoke - Apr 301 comment
by Frank Schnittger - Apr 3067 comments
by joelado - Apr 2954 comments
by Metatone - Apr 2854 comments
by ATinNM - Apr 275 comments
by ceebs - Apr 265 comments
by Frank Schnittger - Apr 2686 comments
by In Wales - Apr 2136 comments