Why haven't we had WWIII yet? | 258 comments (258 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Why haven't we had WWIII yet? (none / 0)

I would submit that you do not know ahead of time how long it takes from the peak of the hegemon's power until it has been totally eclipsed. In no small part because the objective state of the hegemon's power depends on its clients' perception of the hegemon's power.

Nobody believed that Russia could lose its hold on its colonies in the space of three years. But it did.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed May 2nd, 2012 at 05:04:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why haven't we had WWIII yet? (none / 0)

It relies on two things -- it's clients perception of its power, and its clients' benefits from the current system, relative to the unknown benefits or burdens in another system -- the status quo. Despite George W. Bush's best efforts to the contrary for almost a decade, there really are too many people who benefit from US dominance to very easily result in a movement to overthrow the US in some way.

by santiago on Wed May 2nd, 2012 at 05:17:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why haven't we had WWIII yet? (4.00 / 3)

The European clients really accrue only three material benefits from US hegemony: Defense against the non-existent Russian threat, ideological air cover for dismantling European civilisation, and slowing the deterioration of European colonial power.

The first is going to cease playing any important role within 10-20 years, as a generation of European politicians come of age for whom Russia as an imperial power in Europe is not living memory. The second will disappear by the end of the present depression - either because we will have new leaders who do not share the present ones' hatred of European civilisation, or because the present leaders will have succeeded in reducing Europe to failed states.

This leaves only support for European colonial ventures. But these are of declining value, and the US does not possess the power to halt that decline, let alone sufficient incentive to.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed May 2nd, 2012 at 09:32:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why haven't we had WWIII yet? (none / 1)

No, they also gain the public good of not having a reason to shoot each other with real ammunition anymore. When political forces that would otherwise provide for a pro-war coalition arise, the ire can often be directed at the evil American instead of the evil France or Germany or immigrant, dissipating support for war. That's often a key role of governance throughout society -- an organizing tool.

by santiago on Thu May 3rd, 2012 at 12:08:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why haven't we had WWIII yet? (4.00 / 2)

So you contend.

It is not obvious that the US is required to perpetuate the European order it created. Nor is it obvious that it has the power in this day and age to do so in the face of a serious challenge, such as might arise when (not if) France suspends tribute payments to Deutche Bank.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu May 3rd, 2012 at 02:59:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Why haven't we had WWIII yet? | 258 comments (258 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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