Top Diaries

ARD exit poll:

SPD: 39.0%
CDU: 26.0%
Greens: 12.0%
FDP: 8.5%
Pirates: 7.5%
Left Party: 2.5%

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:06:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Preliminary result (none / 0)

Showing all parties above 0.5%:

Party	%	Δ	Seats	Δ
Turnout/total	59.6%	+0.3	237	+56
SPD (Social Democrats)	39.1%	+4.6	99	+32
CDU (Christian Democrats)	26.3%	-8.6	67	±0
Greens	11.3%	-0.8	29	+6
FDP (Free Democrats; neoliberals)	8.6%	+1.9	22	+9
Pirate Party (information freedom)	7.8%	+6.2	20	+20
Left Party (hard left)	2.5%	-3.1	0	-11
pro NRW (Islamophobe far-right)	1.5%	+0.1	0	±0
Animal Protection Party	0.7%	+0.1	0	±0
NPD (neo-Nazi far-right)	0.5%	-0.2	0	±0

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 01:36:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

'Hochrechnung' ZDF 6:13
CDU 25.7 -8.9
SPD 38.2 +3.7
Green 12.1 0
FDP 8.5 +1.8
Linke 2.9 -2.7
Pirate 7.8 +6.2
others 4.8 -0.1

A lot of CDU voters fleeing to the FDP. That's where the bump comes from.

by epochepoque on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:19:16 PM EST

Byebye Mr. Röttgen: declares it "my loss", resigns as NRW party chief. New party chief to be elected next month.

Die Linke are out. Are constant internal battles a genetic disease of lefty parties?

99 seats for Red-Green. 91 for the majority.

by epochepoque on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:22:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The SPD has probably won some votes back from the left. I also think they have lost some votes to the Pirates. ~7% now seems to be the new normal for the Pirates.

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:36:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

what was going on in Die Linke?

by rootless2 on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:37:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Internal battles. However, IMHO the final result was more the Pirate Party effect: protest voters moved on, especially after seeing polls showing Pirates in and Left Party out.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:45:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Die Linke was butchered by the Pirates and probably the SPD. Polls predicted a close result, and said if Die Linke would be over 5%, there would be no majority for SPD and Greens. This will have influenced many voters, I guess.

by Katrin on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:46:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Linke in the west is in many aspects quite young. It ahas attracted a lot of people who you would call - rightly, in this case - sectarians. Riding the wave of the Left on the federal level they barely made it into the state parliament last time. And interpreted this result in NRW as license to live out their sectarian impulses.

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:46:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And how will Rösler act now? I expect him (and his minions) to become even more emboldened and aggressive (and thus destructive).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:39:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No. Clearly this isn't Rösler's success.

by Katrin on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:43:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

When did a politician refrain from owning someone else's success?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:46:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

When the polls are unambiguous? Rösler has become a liability. I expect some people in his party will tell him that.

by Katrin on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:50:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Parteien: Genscher: Lindner ist ,,Mann der Zukunft" in der FDP - Deutschland - FOCUS Online - Nachrichten

Missed this:

Parties: Genscher: Lindner is the man of the future in the FDP - Germany - FOCUS Online - News

Huh. Lindner after Rösler? Would a Lindner bubble burst fast too, maybe that would be a good thing...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 01:00:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Genscher, yes. Wasn't Möllemann his protege too?

by epochepoque on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 01:01:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He was.

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 01:08:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The FDP will be emboldened, but at the same time, because this wasn't Röslers success, their leadership crisis will go on.

Greens and SPD on the other hand are for once in the comfortable position that both have won.

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:48:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The FDP will be emboldened, but at the same time, because this wasn't Röslers success, their leadership crisis will go on.

And thus panic mode will go on, too. And I'd expect Rösler to argue against his detractors that his recent initiatives and confrontation with the CDU did play a role in the successes (I don't think it did, but he can claim it anyway).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:52:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sigh. Watching ZDF now; just as I expected, Rösler just declared something to the tune that 'if we stick to our values and defend it against all headwinds then we will be successful'. So I expect more uncompromising behaviour for exampe in the arbitration over the feed-in law revision.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 01:13:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Are constant internal battles a genetic disease of lefty parties?

Something about herding cats?

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?

by budr on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 01:03:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Merkel dealt 'heavy blow' in German vote - Europe - Al Jazeera English

Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives have suffered a crushing defeat in an election in Germany's most populous state, exit polls showed, a result which could embolden the left opposition to step up attacks on her European austerity policies.

The election on Sunday in North Rhine-Westphalia, a western German state with a bigger population than the Netherlands and an economy the size of Turkey, was held 18 months before a national election in which Merkel is expected to fight for a third term.
About 13.2 million people - more than a fifth of Germany's electorate - were eligible to vote in the legislative election in the state which includes Cologne, Duesseldorf and the industrial Ruhr region.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:29:28 PM EST

I find it funny that foreign reports on state elections always talk about Merkel suffering a heavy blow. If only this would really take her down; but, as long as there is no one to replace her at the help of the CDU and as long as visiting austerity upon other European countries remains popular, and as long as a Grand Coalition with the SPD as junior partner remains viable, I see her winning as usual.

Speaking of austerity only in other countries, I forgot to mention another irony in the diary: the last NRW elections put an end to the FDP's tax cut plans, but in recent week the CDU relented to the panic-mode FDP and they are discussing tax cuts again, balanced budget requirement be damned.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:35:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another NRW election (4.00 / 8)

26% is a very, very bad CDU result. NRW has a lot of rural regions, a sizable catholic part of the population, a long tradition of the union wing of the CDU. There very similar CDU results in the City-States or in the east. Never in a big western state.

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:39:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yep, this is a historic defeat for the CDU. But Merkel survived and came out on top after too many historic defeats of the CDU.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:41:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Then they need to run a candidate reflecting this. Somebody who could at a stretch be a member of the Green Party won't do the job. Especially in a state with a lot of heavy industry.

by oliver on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:45:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A more traditional candidate would perhaps have lost less to the FDP, but hardly gained anything against Kraft.

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:54:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I will wait for the voter movements, though (in particular CDU to non-voters).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 01:01:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I mean, in his now hidden diary, epochepoque reported a very low tunrout.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 01:02:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

59,3% last time, 59% this time.

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 01:03:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Deutsche Welle reporting 59.3% turn-out.

Which sucks but is better than the ~42% turn-out for the 2010 US election.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 05:07:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

participation was the same. But that could have happened too. And I expect some losses to the Pirates.

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 01:03:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

According to ARD's voter movement data, the CDU lost voters significantly in almost all directions: 190,000 to the SPD, 150,000 to the FDP, 130,000 to non-voters (these would be voters who could be re-gained the way oliver says – though to be fair, the CDU lost a lot of voters two years ago already), 60,000 to the Pirates, 20,000 each to the Greens ans others.

For the SPD, the second biggest gain was 110,000 from non-voters, followed by 90,000 from the Left Party, balanced by the same loss to the Pirates. Also 60,000 from the Greens...

Following the loss to the SPD, the Left Party lost 80,000 to the Pirates, 30,000 to the Greens, 20,000 to non-voters and others.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 05:42:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

150,000 to the FDP?

Could that be to "punish" Röttgen or have those voters moved from the CDU to the FDP?

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 05:45:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Those 150,000 moved from the CDU to the FDP for whatever reason. Which could be the punishment of Röttgen, or a return to the FDP after an FDP->CDU switch two years ago, or following a hype.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 05:58:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

130,000 to non-voters (these would be voters who could be re-gained the way oliver says - though to be fair, the CDU lost a lot of voters two years ago already)

Why only those? Why do you assume that a traditionalist candidate outright friendly to industry could not stop movement to the SPD?

by oliver on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 03:37:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Define "outright friendly to industry".

I suspect you mean a policy of protecting last century's business models against innovation and technical progress (yes, I mean your ideas about energy).

by Katrin on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 04:01:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Guilty as charged

by oliver on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 05:34:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Why would that be a factor? I don't recall Röttgen being any less friendly to industry than the NRW Red-Green.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 04:11:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If anything, a Kraft-Rösler-led Grand Coalition would have been more friendly to traditional (coal-eating) industry than even the current coalition of foul compromises.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 04:15:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I really doubt that former CDU-voter switched to the SPD because Röttgen was to green. If asked voters wuld still give the CDU points on economy and son on, the SPD meanwhile leads on social justice.

So, no, Laumann, chief of the CDA (christian deocrastic employees associatin) after all and caucus leader, wuold not have fared much better.

by IM on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 07:05:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

any less friendly to industry than the NRW Red-Green

Exactly. You don't win in opposition being any less friendly. If you want to unseat the government you need to be significantly different. Jobs always matter. An opposition candidate needs a concept how he will create more jobs or protect the existing jobs better.

by oliver on Tue May 15th, 2012 at 01:53:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A very clear result. The FDP has good results whenever the "boy group" of Rösler & co. is in the background. Some altercations are quite in order now. The CDU losses call for the same. No harmony in our government parties. :-)

by Katrin on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:41:07 PM EST

Is Lindner not part of the boy group?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:42:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He is, while Kubicki clearly isn't.

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:51:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No disagreement there. (And at least on the energy issues which I followed, the Schleswig-Holstein FDP was the one halfway sane branch of the party.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:53:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

They seem to have fallen out. And hell, how I wish they debate with knives!

by Katrin on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 12:52:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Debating with knives tends to be either decisive or to leave all dead. Good alternatives here.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 04:24:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The FDP's poll bump had two reasons: one, their colleagues in Schleswig-Holstein state (who are led by someone who counts as rebel within the federal party) broke the earlier trend by doing well in last week's state elections (which was another snap election); two, there was much buzz around Christian Lindner, a 33-year-old insufferable yuppie who resigned as general secretary of the federal party last December but was re-activated as list leader for the NRW elections. Wouldn't the weakness of the CDU have helped a lot?

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter

by generic on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 02:00:22 PM EST

Re: Another NRW election (4.00 / 6)

According to het voter movement analyses the FDP did lose:

40,000 to the Pirates and

20,000 to the SPD.

they did win:

150,000 from the CDU,

20,000 from non-voters,

10,000 from the greens and

10,000 from the Left.

Who exactly switches from the Left to the FDP beats me.

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 03:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Loosely-attached voters" will switch parties for "reasons" (sic) that seem good to them at the time. Generally speaking, these aren't the most politically aware bunch and are generally unburdened by knowledge of the issues of the day.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 04:17:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What time can we expect vote count?

All I'm finding in the English language press are polls.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 04:09:57 PM EST

The current numbers are combinations of poll and results. the later the evening, the more results. Preliminary results perhaps in an hour.

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 04:13:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Danke <n/t> (none / 0)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 04:17:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

As for those curent numbers, which are conducted independently by the two public television channels, check ARD and ZDF. Right now:

SPD: 39.1% (ARD) / 39.0% (ZDF)
CDU: 26.3% / 26.3%
Greens: 11.4% / 11.3%
FDP: 8.5% / 8.5%
Pirates: 7.8% / 7.9%
Left: 2.5% / 2.5%

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 04:43:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The official result will be posted here, when the text below "Landesergebnisse" turns into a link. But you can launch an interactive map by clicking on the map in the right bar, it shows the current state of the count and the result for the districts already counted. Right now about 20 districts are still counting.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 04:37:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Link (4.00 / 4)

(but not Die Linke) just goes to show typical German arrogance by reporting the official results of a German election in German. If they had any consideration for the rest of the World they would report the result in English.

Same sort of shit went on last week when the silly French insisted on reporting in French.

No wonder the euro is blowing up and the EU is collapsing. Nobody knows what the hell anybody else is saying.

lol

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 04:52:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Link (4.00 / 9)

In Brazil, on the other hand, they are considerate enough to post their election results even in portuguese!

by IM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 05:49:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Link (4.00 / 4)

Precisely! If the French has reported their results in Spanish, at least I could have found a neighbor to interpret them for me ... but French? Good grief!

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 06:56:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

that was even quicker than you noticed

Now it's down to 10 districts still counting (most of those in Essen and Cologne).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 04:56:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Röttgen Resigns (none / 1)

Deutsche Welle reporting:

The poor showing prompted the resignation of the CDU's state chairman, Norbert Röttgen, who also serves as Merkel's environment minister at the federal level.
Röttgen took the blame for the party's losses in the polls, and said the loss was unequivocal. He added that is was a "bitter day" for the CDU.

That was quick.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 05:06:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Röttgen Resigned hours ago (4.00 / 2)

by Katrin on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 05:14:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Now a single Essen district still counting; I hope I can post the result before midnight CET...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 05:43:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The count is now over for some time, but I guess they still tally the results... in the meantime, best and worst – note how the three biggest parties bite each others' tails:

CDU: 44.1% in Padernborn I (in the southeast of the state) and 13.7% in Cologne III
Greens: 26.2% also in Cologne III, 6.7% in Duisburg IV
SPD: a proud 55.5% also in Duisburg IV, 27.6% also in Paderborn I
FDP: 15.8% in Bonn II, 3.4% also in Duisburg IV
Pirates 9.9% in Dortmund I, still 5.8% in Borken I
Left Party best: Bielefeld I, 5.6%

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 06:07:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Official result on an official map

by epochepoque on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 06:13:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

regarding second votes (none / 1)

A rather dismal result for the CDU in the urban areas: less than 20% (Ruhr and Cologne).
Strong results for SPD in Ruhr: 45-55%.
Linke catastrophic, managed 5% only in TWO districts.

by epochepoque on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 06:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The result I see there for seats seems to be:

... so if 119 is a majority, that is a majority of 9 for a Red/Green coalition ... that that graphic seems the worst possible for judging such things. Why isn't it oragnized CDU / FDP / Pirate / Green / SDP?

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun May 13th, 2012 at 07:38:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's in the order of biggest to smallest in the last elections.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 01:37:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Great, so its nearly guaranteed to put the two potential government coalition leading parties side by side.

More informative to put government parties on one side, opposition parties on the other, and cross bench parties in the middle.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 09:52:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

These pie charts are usually done in order of number of seats - unless the chart is a replication of the spatial distribution of physical seats in the actual parliament, in which case the partes are arranged as they would sit.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 10:01:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You should be able to rearrange the slices at wiil.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 10:04:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It wouldn't even have to be a fancy drag and drop widget, just a list of the parties to one side and (left) (right) buttons next to each party name.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 10:13:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That's how the Australian election charts are done, how they would sit ~ and that is exactly what I said: the government, one one side, from largest to smallest if its a coalition government, the opposition on the other, sorted from largest to smallest.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 10:11:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

More informative to put government parties on one side, opposition parties on the other

That would necessitate the election authorities prejudicing the government formation.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 10:32:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Because in the wonderful world of the Länder, anything goes.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 10:47:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

State politics are actually rather boring.

by IM on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 11:05:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I was just commenting on the observed fact that just about any combination of the represented parties is imaginable to make up a majority, and most have been tried somewhere.

Just give the kaleidoscope another shake...

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 11:17:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

In the federal government, too, but you'll see a re-shuffle in only one entity only once every four years. (Versions tried there so far: CDU alone, black-yellow, Grand Coalition, red-yellow, red-green; considered in the past or for 2013 but not tried atually: Traffic Lights, Jamaica, black-green; tried or considered at state level but not at federal level: red-red, red-red-green; as for versions with the Pirates, that wasn't seriously considered at either level so far.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 12:45:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

tried or considered at state level but not at federal level:

I left out SPD alone; but I don't know if that was considered a serious possibility in any of the pre-eighties federal elections.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 12:48:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But of course polling firms and media can prejudge all they want.

Sometimes there are additional charts showing the possible coalitions and if they have obtained a majority or not. But obviously this time that wasn't of interest.

by IM on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 11:00:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I recall seeing a bar graph with three possible coalitions in either the ARD or the ZDF election count data, but it's gone now – indeed of no interest anymore.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 12:31:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In what sense? The government and opposition at the time that the election is called is a matter of fact, not a matter of speculation.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 11:02:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But why does the previous government matter? That would be prejudging a continuation of the last coalition as default option. What a half-pie chart could be useful for is showing the viability of coalitions deemed possible. When there is a strong polarisation with two sides ((as in the USA, Australia, France or Italy) or three parties with a smaller one playing the balancer (as there used to be in West Germany), there are only two basic possibilities and a half-pie chart can show them both. But when there are three-four possibilities discussed before an election, a single half-pie chart is basically useless, however you juggle it.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 12:28:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So being informative on the question of whether the current government could return a majority is prejudicing the outcome, but only being informative on whether a CDU / SPD coalition can form a majority is not?

If you have to have a set order ~ as in generating a static image ~ the current set order is not the most informative order.

The "non-prejudicial" display, of course, is one that lets the viewer set their own order.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 12:40:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/wahlanalyse-die-buergerlichen-waehler-der-frau-k-11751009. html

Here - scroll down a bit - is chart arranged as wished:

by IM on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 01:56:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Loverly.

It seems that they sort theirs out in their view of right to left, given that they sorted their pre-election map with The Left to the extreme left, and that bar along the outside of the semicircle to show who made up the government ...

... but without The Left in the picture, its pretty much sitting government largest party to smallest, up one way, non-government parties, largest party to smallest, up the other.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 08:07:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

FDP nach der Landtagswahl im Glück: Kronprinz Christian - taz.de		FDP after the state election in luck: Crown Prince Christian - taz.de
Lindners bedeutsamste Wahlkampftat aber war sein schleichender Schwenk weg vom Dauerpartner CDU, hin zu Gesprächsbereitschaft mit SPD und Grünen. Selbst ein Ampelbündnis stand, wenn auch halbherzig dementiert, im Raum. Diese Zerreißprobe wird der FDP durch die rot-grüne Mehrheit erspart - noch		Lindner's most significant doing in the campaign was his gradual swing away from the permanent partner CDU, towards readiness to talk with SPD and Greens. Even a traffic light coalition was , albeit half-heartedly denied, in the room. The FDP is saved from this battle by the red-green majority -- yet

by Katrin on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 03:53:10 AM EST

Selling knives in front of the FDP party central would be a good business idea today.

by Katrin on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 03:56:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Frank Buchwald of ZDF argues that an overthrow now is in neither Lindner's nor Brüderle's interest: Lindner should first establish himself in NRW, while Brüderle is fine as federal faction leader, and both could live with a weak party leader. Buchwald also suggests that Rösler could attempt to re-establish himself by being more active as an economy minister, which is exactly my fear.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 04:36:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Beautiful. A debate on the ideal moment for an overthrow. The overthrow itself is uncontroversial. Haha!

I am asking myself if I am too optimistic. After all, this government (I mean the federal one) is so abysmally bad, it must go. I am so horrified that it got along for so long, so perhaps wishful thinking clouds my analysis. Am I wrong or is this the beginning of the end?

by Katrin on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 04:51:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Do you believe it cannot possibly get worse?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 04:55:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Theoretically, yes, but at present not.

by Katrin on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 05:58:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It can get worse until 2013 at least.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 06:37:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I am asking myself if I am too optimistic.

We will see only in 2013; but you're definitely more optimistic than I am :-)

Merkel's most likely SPD successor at the moment (assuming there won't be a second Merkel-led Grand Coalition) is Peer Steinbrück. Does that colour your optimism?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 05:05:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

To ask a more pointed question: how much of the damage the current government is yet to wreak will the next government leave untouched?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 05:10:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another NRW election (4.00 / 6)

I am reaching for the garlic when I only hear that name, of course. You haven't succeeded in crushing my optimism, though.

Neither stone has invoked much enthusiasm during the campaign in NRW, but Gabriel was able to play himself to the front of the stage. Steinmeier seems to be out. Steinbrück has the support of some fossils like Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schröder, but apparently less and less at the basis of the SPD membership.

This is about stopping more damage. I don't know if the traitor party (sorry IM, couldn't stop myself) can be made to undo damage (only if a strong movement forces them), but the trouble is that without them we have no chance for a change either.

It's always the same problem: you can't make reasonable politics with the SPD and you can't make reasonable politics without them.

by Katrin on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 05:56:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Neither stone has invoked much enthusiasm during the campaign in NRW

:-))) And the one post-election Steinmeier quote I saw would indicate that he is happier about the Left Party defeat than the CDU defeat...

Steinbrück has the support of some fossils like Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schröder, apparently less and less at the basis of the SPD membership

That would be encouraging; but what is your source on this (apart from the party left like Rossmann)? At least in the entire population, polls show Steinbrück on top.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 06:37:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I use reports of applause (and lack thereof) in the campaigning events as an indicator. Or discussions in blogs. Op-eds that take up points from politicians. That sort of thing. No hard evidence (and this is why I must constantly ask myself if wishful thinking has too much influence on me).

Even the least intelligent SPD politician must notice that copying the CDU only lets people vote the original or else Die Linke or Pirates. Steinbrück would be the ideal candidate for a rescue of Die Linke. We have proof that the Schröder+Steinbrück gang can win against Kohl, but not against Merkel. I am not sure that the SPD tries strategies they failed with over and over again.

by Katrin on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 07:26:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Even the least intelligent SPD politician must notice that copying the CDU only lets people vote the original or else Die Linke or Pirates.

Nobody has ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the least intelligent SPD politician.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 09:57:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Couldn't one say that the Hollande's victory and Syriza in Greece have changed the game at the top of the SPD? Is Steinbrück now just too much poison?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 05:43:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That isn't in evidence.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 05:55:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Meanwhile, Röttgen is fair game:

SZ-Liveblog nach NRW-Wahl - Seehofer attackiert Wahlverlierer Röttgen - Politik - sueddeutsche.de		SZ live blog after the NRW election - Seehofer attacks loser Röttgen - Politics - sueddeutsche.de
Dass der politische Gegner nachtritt, war abzusehen (die Grünen forderten seine Entlassung als Bundesumweltminister). Dass aber CSU-Chef Horst Seehofer indirekt Röttgens ministrable Eignung in Frage stellt, ist ein Tiefschlag. Seehofer sagte der Bild-Zeitung: "Die Menschen wollen endlich Antworten hören, wie es mit der Energiewende weitergehen soll, und sie wollen sehen, dass wir aufs Tempo drücken". Und: "Ich hoffe, dass der Bundesumweltminister mit dieser Herausforderung anders umgeht als mit dem Wahlkampf in NRW".		It was to be expected that political opponents will put the boot in him (the Greens called for his resignation as federal environment minister). The fact however that CSU leader Horst Seehofer indirectly questioned Röttgen's ministerial suitability is a low blow. Seehofer told the Bild newspaper: "People want to finally hear answers on how the energy transition shall proceed, and they want to see that we move up a gear". And: "I hope that the federal environment minister will deal with this challenge differently than with the election in Northrhine-Westphalia".

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 04:46:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

the Greens called for his resignation as federal environment minister

I'm not sure any successor the CDU would put forward would be any better...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 04:49:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

OTOH, Merkel recognizes the strength of support for the energy transition in the population. Further, an environmental minister acceptable to the Greens is a move to staying in power with a black green coalition, however ludicrous.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 05:34:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Seehofer "You can air this if you want!" (4.00 / 3)

Off-the-record, starting at 5:20.
"Röttgen started 37:34 against Kraft, within 6 weeks that melted away."
The tenor: I told him so! "How many people ran away after a few years in high office? Well, he didn't even 'run in'!"

by epochepoque on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 06:41:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Seehofer "You can air this if you... (none / 0)

7:10 in:

Seehofer: "...And we need a growth package. We won't get on a path to growth in Europe with debt reduction. Neither in the states ..."
Kleber: "You sound like the German voice of Hollande!"
Seehofer: "Yes, OK, or the Bavarian voice!"

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue May 15th, 2012 at 05:17:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Seehofer "You can air this if you... (none / 0)

Bavaria could secede from the federal republic, and stay in the Euro. I'd be good with that.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue May 15th, 2012 at 05:29:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Has there been much in the media that Lindner's success is primarily due to CDU defections?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 05:36:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Heribert Pradtl in the Süddeutsche argues that Lindner made a conservative campaign to woo CDU voters disturbed by Röttgen, so that he can now lead the FDP back towards social-liberalism, which won't be an easy task (a squaring of the circle, he could have said).

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon May 14th, 2012 at 05:55:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Röttgen has just resigned as environment minister.

by Katrin on Wed May 16th, 2012 at 10:43:40 AM EST

Oh. That was the polite version. Actually he resigned because Merkel strongly recommended it. He didn't even accompany her to the presser...

by Katrin on Wed May 16th, 2012 at 10:51:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I looked at the conservative reaction in FAZ. This op-ed is interesting. They emphasize just how unprecedented this firing of Röttgen was, and argue that far from being damaged, Merkel can do what she wants – clearly channeling CDU member dissatisfaction with lack of influence on Merkel. But the weird part is that the piece ends with a reference to Schleswig-Holstein FDP leader Wolfgang Kubicki's endorsement for Peer Steinbrück as chancellor – it sounds like a FAZ endorsement ("let Steinbrück be chancellor so what we can save the CDU from Merkel").

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu May 17th, 2012 at 06:03:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Another NRW election (4.00 / 4)

Heck no, the FAZ Feulleton is not the "conservative reaction". It's the place where Frank Schirrmacher hopes to catch new readers (the typical conservative subscriber of the FAZ is about 70 years old). Lübberding, the author, is of the rare species of the SPD left. In the last sentence of the piece he expresses hope for next week's resignation: Merkel's. Not exactly the "FAZ endorsement". There is a discussion of the piece on the (very nice) blog of Lübberding & Co.

by Katrin on Thu May 17th, 2012 at 07:43:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He was resigned.

by epochepoque on Wed May 16th, 2012 at 11:12:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Successor: Peter Altmaier, chief whip of the joint CDU-CSU federal parliamentary faction. A grey loyal soldier, I can't recall any position on the environment or energy. Checking archives, the only related matter I could find was that he was an initiator and advocate of black-green, and didn't give up on that idea even when he was tasked with rallying the CDU faction behind the nuclear plant lifespan extensions.

The SPD spokesman blasted Röttgen's record as newfound blocker of the energy transition, and called for the replacement of Rösler, too.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed May 16th, 2012 at 05:03:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Down to the last reserves.

Altmaier is known as avid user of new media - twotterand so on - though.

by IM on Wed May 16th, 2012 at 07:14:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Twitter! My dislike to the this modern bric-à-brac seems to overwhelm my spelling.

by IM on Wed May 16th, 2012 at 07:20:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]