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The poll, conducted earlier this week, shows 37pc saying they will vote Yes, with 24pc in the No camp. But 35pc of voters say they still don't know how they will vote, while just 4pc say they won't vote.When the don't knows are excluded, it is 60pc Yes compared with 40pc No.The referendum is there for the taking by the Yes side, but the Government will know there is no room for complacency.The poll results also reveal that the Yes vote is being driven by Fine Gael and Fianna Fail voters.But Tanaiste Eamon Gilmore has a battle on his hands to convince a sizeable block of Labour supporters to back the treaty.Labour voters lag behind Fine Gael and Fianna Fail voters in their backing of the treaty.Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin has seen off the rebellion of dissident TD Eamon O Cuiv calling for a No vote.Support for the Yes side is also shown to be highest among older voters and those in the affluent and middles classes.But after three weeks of debate on the EU fiscal treaty referendum, voters are still limited in their knowledge of what they are deciding on.Against the backdrop of the ongoing instability in Greece and the threat to kick that country out of the euro, the poll also shows Irish voters want to stay in the eurozone.EuroA substantial majority, or three out of every four voters, want Ireland to remain in the single currency.
When the don't knows are excluded, it is 60pc Yes compared with 40pc No.
The referendum is there for the taking by the Yes side, but the Government will know there is no room for complacency.
The poll results also reveal that the Yes vote is being driven by Fine Gael and Fianna Fail voters.
But Tanaiste Eamon Gilmore has a battle on his hands to convince a sizeable block of Labour supporters to back the treaty.
Labour voters lag behind Fine Gael and Fianna Fail voters in their backing of the treaty.
Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin has seen off the rebellion of dissident TD Eamon O Cuiv calling for a No vote.
Support for the Yes side is also shown to be highest among older voters and those in the affluent and middles classes.
But after three weeks of debate on the EU fiscal treaty referendum, voters are still limited in their knowledge of what they are deciding on.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing instability in Greece and the threat to kick that country out of the euro, the poll also shows Irish voters want to stay in the eurozone.
Euro
A substantial majority, or three out of every four voters, want Ireland to remain in the single currency.
The Yes side may take comfort that the deepening Greek crisis with rumours of mass bank runs will scare people into the yes camp.
The NO side can point to the growing realisation in Europe that the Treaty, as is, is totally inadequate to meet the need to re-generate growth and correct fiscal imbalances, and that Ireland would be throwing away its negotiating position if it votes yes now in advance of discussions to expand the scope or context of the Treaty.
An awful lot can change in the net two weeks as previous referenda were defeated even after opinion polls had shown substantial YES majorities in the lead up to the poll.
My guess is that the growing Greek crisis will drive people to the Yes side, as the Irish economy has stabilised (at a 0.7% growth projection level) and people are more afraid of things getting substantially worse rather than hopeful that a rejection would force the EU to take more effective remedial action.
However differential turnout (in a low turnout election) could still be a factor if the YES side become complacent, and, unusually for me, I would be reluctant to predict the result at this stage. Index of Frank's Diaries
The only answer I can see is that the leadership of Fianna Fail and Fianna Gael are both blind to the problems and see their futures bound up with this sinking ship. But even in that case, surely they should be wanting to keep the ship afloat, even if they are supporting measures that will result in it sinking sooner. Opposing the treaty changes, in fact supports the ideals of the EU and a more functional organization of the EMU and the Euro. As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
Unfortunately, there seems to be no opportunity for a clear pro European Union position to make the case against the treaty on the grounds that both the existing SGP and the proposed 'enhancements' are actually undermining those elements of the EU and EMU which were the basis for joining the process.
James Wickham argued that the Treaty debate needed to be understood in the context of a much broader debate about the future of Europe and that there was huge popular unease that the Treaty was part of a process whereby the European ideals which people had bought into were being systematically undermined. He characterised those ideals as consisting of: Relatively egalitarian income distributions and attitudes which approved of more equality rather than less The concept of social citizenship which entitled people to high standards of public education, health care, and income support, and which was not dependent on the goodwill of philanthropists The concept of economic citizenship which entitled people to a host of rights (and obligations) in the workplace, and A concept of the state as the backbone of society which guarantees a public space and not as an intrinsically evil imposition as it is characterised by Reaganite neo-conservatives in the USA. He noted that, historically, the EU had had a role in both demolishing such state guaranteed rights by breaking down national barriers and in creating new rights and obligations to protect people from the effects of the single market. However, increasingly, the EU was seen as exposing people to the full rigours of globalisation without providing corresponding social protections as the member nation states had previously done. Effectively, the Treaty was part of a process by which the EU was undermining its own existence by devouring the social compact on which it was based. The European welfare state is not a luxury item we can no longer afford, but the whole basis of our social solidarity built up at a time of great adversity and austerity.
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