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The 60:40 yes/no margin, with a very substantial don't know segment has been more or less a constant throughout the campaign.

The Yes side may take comfort that the deepening Greek crisis with rumours of mass bank runs will scare people into the yes camp.

The NO side can point to the growing realisation in Europe that the Treaty, as is, is totally inadequate to meet the need to re-generate growth and correct fiscal imbalances, and that Ireland would be throwing away its negotiating position if it votes yes now in advance of discussions to expand the scope or context of the Treaty.

An awful lot can change in the net two weeks as previous referenda were defeated even after opinion polls had shown substantial YES majorities in the lead up to the poll.

My guess is that the growing Greek crisis will drive people to the Yes side, as the Irish economy has stabilised (at a 0.7% growth projection level) and people are more afraid of things getting substantially worse rather than hopeful that a rejection would force the EU to take more effective remedial action.

However differential turnout (in a low turnout election) could still be a factor if the YES side become complacent, and, unusually for me,  I would be reluctant to predict the result at this stage.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu May 17th, 2012 at 09:15:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, there seems to be no opportunity for a clear pro European Union position to make the case against the treaty on the grounds that both the existing SGP and the proposed 'enhancements' are actually undermining those elements of the EU and EMU which were the basis for joining the process. Why in the world should anyone support doing more damage to an already sinking ship whilst insisting on remaining aboard? Those Germans represented by the Merkel Government of course think that they are going to benefit and they have in the short term, but that short term is quickly coming to an end.

The only answer I can see is that the leadership of Fianna Fail and Fianna Gael are both blind to the problems and see their futures bound up with this sinking ship. But even in that case, surely they should be wanting to keep the ship afloat, even if they are supporting measures that will result in it sinking sooner. Opposing the treaty changes, in fact supports the ideals of the EU and a more functional organization of the EMU and the Euro.


As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu May 17th, 2012 at 10:04:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
'clear pro European supporter' that is.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu May 17th, 2012 at 10:05:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, there seems to be no opportunity for a clear pro European Union position to make the case against the treaty on the grounds that both the existing SGP and the proposed 'enhancements' are actually undermining those elements of the EU and EMU which were the basis for joining the process.
And what do you call this, then?
James Wickham argued that the Treaty debate needed to be understood in the context of a much broader debate about the future of Europe and that there was huge popular unease that the Treaty was part of a process whereby the European ideals which people had bought into were being systematically undermined. He characterised those ideals as consisting of:

  • Relatively egalitarian income distributions and attitudes which approved of more equality rather than less
  • The concept of social citizenship which entitled people to high standards of public education, health care, and income support, and which was not dependent on the goodwill of philanthropists
  • The concept of economic citizenship  which entitled people to a host of rights (and obligations) in the workplace, and
  • A concept of the state as the backbone of society which guarantees a public space and not as an intrinsically evil imposition as it is characterised by Reaganite neo-conservatives in the USA.

He noted that, historically, the EU had had a role in both demolishing such state guaranteed rights by breaking down national barriers and in creating new rights and obligations to protect people from the effects of the single market.  However, increasingly, the EU was seen as exposing people to the full rigours of globalisation without providing corresponding social protections as the member nation states had previously done. Effectively, the Treaty was part of a process by which the EU was undermining its own existence by devouring the social compact on which it was based. The European welfare state is not a luxury item we can no longer afford, but the whole basis of our social solidarity built up at a time of great adversity and austerity.


guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 17th, 2012 at 11:27:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, Ireland is a small country. Perhaps I underestimate the impact of Trinity's Head of School of Social Sciences and Philosophy can have on the debate as a whole. It would be good to have an organization with national scope presenting his message. Perhaps he will go on Tonight with Vincent Brown or some other such program, but that still does not seem to me to be able to spread the message to the average person. Coverage or at least references to his statements in the MSM would be better.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu May 17th, 2012 at 01:58:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was surprised there were only perhaps 30 people in the large lecture hall, and I have seen no media coverage of the Seminar. It seemed to be very badly organised as I only got an email about it the day before the event. Media coverage on the day was dominated by a news conference by UKIP Party leader Nigel Farage and a Danish ultra-right Eurosceptic (both on the No side). Gavin Barrett has had op ed pieces in the Irish Times, as has Terrence McDonough. James Wickham has made occasional radio appearances though not, to my knowledge, on the Referendum issue, so I would not over-estimate the influence of this trio. They would not, exactly, be household names and perhaps only Barrett has the media skills to be a regular TV/Radio performer..

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu May 17th, 2012 at 02:14:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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