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For a political elite to engage in "election buying" by engaging in a tax reduction and spending increasing splurge at a time of already high growth is almost as undesirable as engaging in austerity economics at a time of recession.

This is almost never true. Overspending, and the consequent inflation, is nearly always less a problem than underspending and accompanying deflation. Unless you're a bondholder, but fuck them.

The negative effects may be delayed, but they are very real in recent Irish historical experience,

This is a consequence of defending a rigid currency peg, not a consequence of inflationary policy per se.

The correct response to a period of excess inflation, once it is over, is to let bygones be bygones and allow the currency to drop. It is not to attempt to "correct" the inflationary episode by a deflationary one. As I often put it, that is akin to "curing" a man who has been shot in the front by shooting him in the back, on the theory that on average no bullet will have passed through him.

It was private debt, at c. 400% GDP that was the problem, largely because of inappropriately low ECB interest rates (set to meet German economic needs) and a lack of bank regulation at both Irish and European levels.

Low interest rates do not cause untenable levels of private debt. The private sector, if left to its own devices, builds up untenable levels of debt when interest rates are high, it builds up untenable levels of debt when interest rates are low, it builds up untenable levels of debt when interest rates are stable and it builds up untenable levels of debt when interest rates are fluctuating.

Because the private sector, if left to its own devices, will build up untenable levels of debt. Full stop.

The only way for interest rate policy to prevent this is to engineer a macroeconomic crisis. Which, in another medical analogy, is akin to amputating the limb to treat a sprained muscle. Half the time amputating the wrong limb.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu May 17th, 2012 at 01:34:39 AM EST
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