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As usual in political discussions, crucial assumptions are made from the outset without discussion, even though they will control the entire saga of energy for the next century.

  • Continuity of global social and economic stability.
  • Maintenance of first world standard of living.

Based on historical observation, it seems pretty obvious that both of these are extremely unlikely. Any significant military activity has a huge impact on local power supply and demand. And as China enters the marketplace the relative standards of living are certain to be adjusted.

For example, a serious government-sponsored effort could destroy the energy infrastructure of any national opponent with little effort. When we invest in energy infrastructure, we ignore that possibility.

For example, the entire issue of energy supply would be overturned overnight if first world demand were slashed by 90%. When we plan our energy infrastructure, we assume that this is not even open for discussion.

So a test to see if you actually have a neutral arbiter in the discussion is to see whether topics of this sort are on the agenda. Up to now, they have not been.

by asdf on Wed May 23rd, 2012 at 11:43:48 AM EST
Introduced before, the Kaya identity incorporates the standard of living in GDP.

It also is used by the IPCC, which does consider, in veiled terms, the scenario you sketch.

1.3.1.2 Intensities - AR4 WGIII Chapter 1: Introduction

The challenge - an absolute reduction of global GHG emissions - is daunting. It presupposes a reduction of energy and carbon intensities at a faster rate than income and population growth taken together. Admittedly, there are many possible combinations of the four Kaya identity components, but with the scope and legitimacy of population control subject to ongoing debate, the remaining two technology-oriented factors, energy and carbon intensities, have to bear the main burden.

You're talking about a massive reduction of energy intensity, while the focus of most people is on driving down carbon intensity - also IPCC scientists.

by Nomad on Wed May 23rd, 2012 at 01:41:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What I'm talking about is the foolishness of investing in energy system designs that don't confront basic technological weaknesses: Fukushima.

Or, what about the fact that we have--America, Europe, China, everywhere--built distribution grids that cannot withstand Solar events that are KNOWN to occur. And that when such an event occurs, huge populations will lose access to electricity for months or years. That means: no water, no transportation, no food, no communication, no heat, no nothing. Which means millions of people in perfectly civilized countries will die. This is a KNOWN possibility, although one can argue about the probabilities. And the result will swamp any concern about whether the energy usage will grow by x% or x.1% per year for the next century.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/03/120308-solar-flare-storm-sun-space-weather-science-a urora/

What if some rogue country decides to explode an atomic bomb in a major port? You could "solve" Italy's energy supply problems overnight by simply wiping out the national economy. Where is the protection against this?
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/10/ff_radioactivecargo/all/1

The problem is that we have political discussions at a high level, ignoring the technical risks that show up at the detail level, and then ignore the protestations of the technical experts who warn that the plans are not sound. The basic assumptions, e.g. "there will not be a tsunami higher than x" are not adequately evaluated or accounted for.

It's a matter of multiplying a small probability by a disastrous consequence, not liking the answer, and agreeing to ignore that factor...without further discussion.

by asdf on Wed May 23rd, 2012 at 02:39:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Then I misread your first comment. Having read it again, and this comment, I agree with the gist of what you write. Yet humanity has a streak of course-correcting only after a disastrous fact, hardly ever before. History is riddled with it.

I'd say it's inherent to the system - with a known possibility with a low probability that has not occurred, we take our chances. All the rest is fodder for CGI doom-scenario's on National Geographic which we can switch off at our own leisure.

BTW, the effects of a solar storm as strong as in 1859 would be enhanced also because the earth's magnetic field has been weakening for at least 150 years, with a loss of strength estimated up to 15%.

by Nomad on Wed May 23rd, 2012 at 03:17:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
we have--America, Europe, China, everywhere--built distribution grids that cannot withstand Solar events that are KNOWN to occur

Let's qualify that. Shorter lines mean lower induced voltages. If there is a warning, transformers can be disconnected, meaning a planned blackout without equipment damage. For warning, NOAA, NASA and ESA established space weather forecasts. Of these, NASA's Solar Shield offers transformer-level prediction, and this year they began to expand it to Europe. Of course, this is still in development and still comes far short of a full solution that would involve the mandatory installation of anti-GIC systems.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed May 23rd, 2012 at 03:25:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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