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It also is used by the IPCC, which does consider, in veiled terms, the scenario you sketch.
22.214.171.124 Intensities - AR4 WGIII Chapter 1: Introduction
The challenge - an absolute reduction of global GHG emissions - is daunting. It presupposes a reduction of energy and carbon intensities at a faster rate than income and population growth taken together. Admittedly, there are many possible combinations of the four Kaya identity components, but with the scope and legitimacy of population control subject to ongoing debate, the remaining two technology-oriented factors, energy and carbon intensities, have to bear the main burden.
You're talking about a massive reduction of energy intensity, while the focus of most people is on driving down carbon intensity - also IPCC scientists.
Or, what about the fact that we have--America, Europe, China, everywhere--built distribution grids that cannot withstand Solar events that are KNOWN to occur. And that when such an event occurs, huge populations will lose access to electricity for months or years. That means: no water, no transportation, no food, no communication, no heat, no nothing. Which means millions of people in perfectly civilized countries will die. This is a KNOWN possibility, although one can argue about the probabilities. And the result will swamp any concern about whether the energy usage will grow by x% or x.1% per year for the next century.
What if some rogue country decides to explode an atomic bomb in a major port? You could "solve" Italy's energy supply problems overnight by simply wiping out the national economy. Where is the protection against this?
The problem is that we have political discussions at a high level, ignoring the technical risks that show up at the detail level, and then ignore the protestations of the technical experts who warn that the plans are not sound. The basic assumptions, e.g. "there will not be a tsunami higher than x" are not adequately evaluated or accounted for.
It's a matter of multiplying a small probability by a disastrous consequence, not liking the answer, and agreeing to ignore that factor...without further discussion.
I'd say it's inherent to the system - with a known possibility with a low probability that has not occurred, we take our chances. All the rest is fodder for CGI doom-scenario's on National Geographic which we can switch off at our own leisure.
BTW, the effects of a solar storm as strong as in 1859 would be enhanced also because the earth's magnetic field has been weakening for at least 150 years, with a loss of strength estimated up to 15%.
Let's qualify that. Shorter lines mean lower induced voltages. If there is a warning, transformers can be disconnected, meaning a planned blackout without equipment damage. For warning, NOAA, NASA and ESA established space weather forecasts. Of these, NASA's Solar Shield offers transformer-level prediction, and this year they began to expand it to Europe. Of course, this is still in development and still comes far short of a full solution that would involve the mandatory installation of anti-GIC systems.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
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