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What I'm talking about is the foolishness of investing in energy system designs that don't confront basic technological weaknesses: Fukushima.

Or, what about the fact that we have--America, Europe, China, everywhere--built distribution grids that cannot withstand Solar events that are KNOWN to occur. And that when such an event occurs, huge populations will lose access to electricity for months or years. That means: no water, no transportation, no food, no communication, no heat, no nothing. Which means millions of people in perfectly civilized countries will die. This is a KNOWN possibility, although one can argue about the probabilities. And the result will swamp any concern about whether the energy usage will grow by x% or x.1% per year for the next century.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/03/120308-solar-flare-storm-sun-space-weather-science-a urora/

What if some rogue country decides to explode an atomic bomb in a major port? You could "solve" Italy's energy supply problems overnight by simply wiping out the national economy. Where is the protection against this?
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/10/ff_radioactivecargo/all/1

The problem is that we have political discussions at a high level, ignoring the technical risks that show up at the detail level, and then ignore the protestations of the technical experts who warn that the plans are not sound. The basic assumptions, e.g. "there will not be a tsunami higher than x" are not adequately evaluated or accounted for.

It's a matter of multiplying a small probability by a disastrous consequence, not liking the answer, and agreeing to ignore that factor...without further discussion.

by asdf on Wed May 23rd, 2012 at 02:39:47 PM EST
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Then I misread your first comment. Having read it again, and this comment, I agree with the gist of what you write. Yet humanity has a streak of course-correcting only after a disastrous fact, hardly ever before. History is riddled with it.

I'd say it's inherent to the system - with a known possibility with a low probability that has not occurred, we take our chances. All the rest is fodder for CGI doom-scenario's on National Geographic which we can switch off at our own leisure.

BTW, the effects of a solar storm as strong as in 1859 would be enhanced also because the earth's magnetic field has been weakening for at least 150 years, with a loss of strength estimated up to 15%.

by Nomad on Wed May 23rd, 2012 at 03:17:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
we have--America, Europe, China, everywhere--built distribution grids that cannot withstand Solar events that are KNOWN to occur

Let's qualify that. Shorter lines mean lower induced voltages. If there is a warning, transformers can be disconnected, meaning a planned blackout without equipment damage. For warning, NOAA, NASA and ESA established space weather forecasts. Of these, NASA's Solar Shield offers transformer-level prediction, and this year they began to expand it to Europe. Of course, this is still in development and still comes far short of a full solution that would involve the mandatory installation of anti-GIC systems.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed May 23rd, 2012 at 03:25:31 PM EST
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