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SYRIZA is being offered the government so as to rein it in and make sure that it accepts the austerity package, damaging its popular credibility which is shooting to the stars with every minute it insists on the 5 points I posted earlier.

Fotis Kouvelis, leader of DIMAR, confirmed that he will not participate in a government without SYRIZA. So unless we have MPs jumping ship (a possibility, since I saw at least 3 of his MPs not applauding) we're surely headed towards new elections. I note that there if DimAr abstains, and PASOK and ND have a majority of valid votes in parliament the government survives (AFAIK)...

These elections will be very tense and full of blackmail. The dynamic of SYRIZA is impressive and will be countered by possibly a "pro-memorandum" front. Even a nod from Hollande that a postponement of austerity measures is acceptable would create a landslide. So would some signal from Russia say... We'll see...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 08:06:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Varoufakis has been very, very critical of Syriza's position on nationalizing banks and on a debt repayment moratorium. I have to say I agree with him. These are things Syriza may have to do as a matter of course in response to EU punishment, but why do it ahead of time?
by Upstate NY on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 09:34:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Both are necessary to prevent further hard currency from departing the country.

- Jake

Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 10:06:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I understand that, but... let Germany take the blame first by having the ECB pull the rug out.
by Upstate NY on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 10:08:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At the cost of how many additional tens of millions of hard currency flight?

I'm not saying you're wrong, just that it's not a trivial trade.

- Jake

Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 10:21:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The sequence of events is ultra-important. If Greece totally reneges on its debts, it will be perceived as incorrigible. It will reinforce the perception of Greece as a special case. But getting expelled after trying to fulfill all the requirements, that's quite a different story. In the background we hear of Juncker and certain people in the IMF who well realize that Greece has moved heaven and earth to comply with the program, that Greece has slashed its budget, and no matter the propaganda that's out there, people know this.

That knowledge is powerful, and in fact, it's the only thing Greece has left at this point, since it's that knowledge that the EU fears. It's the idea that, to use Juncker's words, the dictats from EU central are punishments, and as punishments, they instill fear in others, and thus contagion in the markets.

We know the Greek kleptocrats have stolen money from the EU essentially, but the idea of punishing poor people should never sit well with most Europeans.

by Upstate NY on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 10:49:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Perceived by whom?
by rootless2 on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 10:54:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
By those who hide a small degree of sympathy for Greece.

Martin Schultz is visiting Greece today.

by Upstate NY on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 10:58:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The main point is, if you try to repay your debts, make massive cuts, push through reforms while your social fabric is tearing and your people are despairing, if you restructure your debt so that, in effect, you move any court-related contingencies from Athens to London, if you do all this simply to wipe only $25 billion from your load--and in the end you are expelled for all your (albeit shortsighted) efforts, then the markets will very well determine that the possibility of "failure" in other countries is great.
by Upstate NY on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 11:02:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Tsipras should do an interview on German TV.
by rootless2 on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 11:10:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He will have to be very well prepared, and not get off track, with predetermined sound bites and answers to german-oriented questioning.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 11:52:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps he should send Yanis Varoufakis to make the case for Greece.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 07:28:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the idea of punishing poor people should never sit well with most Europeans

Why do we idolize "Europeanness" so?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 11:22:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It used to be a synonym for progressive civilisation.

Now it's become a synonym for fiscal fascism.

Both synonyms have historical precedent. But just because we've often ignored the less attractive of the two choices, doesn't mean the optimistic version isn't still useful and valid.

Greece, Spain, etc aren't dead yet, and it's hopeful that we're finally seeing some progressive resistance to the fascists.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 11:26:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
Why do we idolize "Europeanness" so?

it's not idolise, it's that europe symbolises values that are preferable to our sensibilities than americanism or asian models.

which is why it's so galling it will suffer because of bankster greed, as we observe it revert to the primitive bickerings and far right nonsense of yore.

The power of knowledge is in mortal combat with the knowledge of power. It really is that simple... That's the Edenic apple we are all munching on.

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 01:02:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
preferable to Americanism or even the Chinese model?

Sure, we had a good run at moral governance, lasting roughly from 1945 to the late 1970's (and a bit later here in France), but that was the exception. A lot of shit happened before 1945.

True, we've had two successful revolutions in Europe, advancing progress for all. But, capitalism has already hit one of its periodic stages where the internal contradiction provokes war here on the continent, and it wasn't pretty. And the same country seems hellbent on creating the social and economic conditions for the next one. We're innovators in all of this...the Americans are just a wealthy banana republic, there's no comparison.

I would be ashamed to admit that I had risen from the ranks. When I rise it will be with the ranks, and not from them Eugene Debs

by redstar on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 01:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One longs for the moral clarity and communal good feeling of the Algerian war.

Il est démontré, disait-il, que les choses ne peuvent être autrement; car tout étant fait pour une fin, tout est nécessairement pour la meilleure fin.

by rootless2 on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 01:49:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Paris police did at Métro Charonne to protestors of that war.

I would be ashamed to admit that I had risen from the ranks. When I rise it will be with the ranks, and not from them Eugene Debs
by redstar on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 01:54:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
redstar:
Do you really think Europeanness is () preferable to Americanism or even the Chinese model?

yes i do, after visiting extensively in asia and the usa, i believe very firmly in a european vision/version of social democracy, (as occasionally practiced here).

i think america's vision was possibly superior, at least superficially so, during the 60's and 70's, but since the eighties has regressed and devolved almost beyond belief. and now, as warned by many here for years, that chicago school economics has corrupted many here with short term thinking, extortionist capitalism, shorn of any moderation, inhuman.

redstar:

the Americans are just a wealthy banana republic, there's no comparison.

true on some level, but it has been and continues to be the springboard for the globocorporatising investor class that now knows allegiance to no government, beyond those already corrupted.

no model is close to ideal, but europe's headway in alt. energy, environmental prudence and human rights, though still riddles with inconsistency, injustice and downright cruelly, is still preferable to other social models where these flaws are so much warp and woof of the culture it takes fruit sellers setting themselves on fire to make a change.

europe is careening into chaos, with blind psychopaths at the wheel. by the end of the year so many peripheral countries will have snapped, the business-as-usual model will consume itself in a fire of its obvious stupidity, unfortunately many will suicide -or go breivik- before this tragedy is over.

europeans are too well educated in history, modern communications and cheap travel, the growth of english as lingua franca, these are the glues which have created a new generation of europeans who will be very riled if their elders try to force them into a modern equivalent of foot binding.

the chinese model will step into the vacuum if america and europe continue to self-immolate, as their industriousness and ambition continue to wax. i'll bet many more chinese would rather live in euro style democracies than europeans would like to live chinese.

ultimately we can forge a global system that highlights and incorporates the best attributes of all previous systems, but i think that's a century away still, barring unforeseen events, particularly of a climactic nature, which may force some fast forwarding in the energy sector.

The power of knowledge is in mortal combat with the knowledge of power. It really is that simple... That's the Edenic apple we are all munching on.

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 06:20:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As someone who has lived on both continents, there are both good and bad aspects of each. Everything you all say is true, but there are certain features of the USA that are preferable to the EU and vice versa. Canada would seem to be a good mix, but Canada has its problems as well.
by Upstate NY on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 08:13:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
maybe it sounds like i'm saying europe is the lesser of 3 evils. i agree with you there are elements of asian and american societies that are streets ahead of ours, in america the bureaucracy in the main is much less byzantine, with the exception of immigration. a small business license can be had in a day and off you go.

asia's biggest advantages are spiritual, less egos running amok, less delusions of grandeur, less narcissism, less expectations, entitlement and so on. rhythms are more serene, with notable exceptions such as hypergrowth sectors of china, indonesia, s. korea and japan, who have quaffed mightily on first world koolaide, and stress and hypertension rule.

corruption is everywhere, europe holds the largest amount of educated people who have living memories of holocaust in their homeland, and who have evinced the most globally responsible policies.

europeans were offered a vision of unity, and we rose to the occasion in so many ways, so ready to believe the damaging quirks and peccadilloes of each respective country could be coaxed out under the calm, sane, rational eye of brussels.

hoodwinked! granted a common currency, decent ideals, free movement and almost free residency europe wide, some of the world's best science and a dizzyingly rich, complex culture attracting visitors from all over to gawp'n'spend, and a common currency, (so convenient), now we realise the currency was a financial trojan, a gambit, a poisoned chalice, and they want to take away our movement, our unity, and leave us again to be divided by national interests, and that the currency was a barbed hook we swallowed whole.

betting the boom years would never end, borrowing when we were rich, instead of seeing ahead that history had a nasty habit of repeating, and punishing peoples who thought they had found economic perpetual motion rentier machines.

the whole scam would have been able to merrily continue, barring one inconvenient truth, our planet is not 20 times, not even 5, (which is still the myopic presumption our leaders are locked into acting upon) BIGGER and more chockablock with easily available resources than it is.

they need us to keep the scam going, we are getting fed up with them.

they have many of us thinking we need them more than they need us, because of the efficacy of propaganda, and the native gullibility from centuries of bad religion and authoritarian brain-death, but people are educating themselves now, and many cats are coming out of the bag.

so i don't idolise anywhere, europe just seems statistically a more probable present and future exemplar of balance between experience and innovation, modern but not overly so.

sadly, right now the ivy of finance has dug its roots deep into the mortar of the building, and it could be that removing it will bring the building down too.

when you're not safe and warm within it, there's less to lose from that happening. with what we know we could probably do a better design job now anyway.

what 'scratch' is, remains the open, Eseveraltrillionoffunnymoney question...

The power of knowledge is in mortal combat with the knowledge of power. It really is that simple... That's the Edenic apple we are all munching on.

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 11:48:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Europe is not suffering because of banker greed but because of the stupidity of the political elite.

Is Merkel a greedy banker?

Mr. Papandreou says that when he asked German Chancellor Angela Merkel for gentler conditions in 2010, she replied that the aid program had to hurt. "We want to make sure nobody else will want this," Ms. Merkel told him.
What kind of twisted, sick mind thinks that you can help by hurting? Traditional European values, I suppose. She's, after all, the daughter of a protestant preacher. Let's all have a round of good old fashioned European religious values.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 03:56:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's like giving medicine to sick kids. It has to taste bad, or they will have no incentive trying to get healthy again.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 06:17:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, they're supposed to get better from the medicine, whereas in the case of Greece the debt to GDP ratio would get worse even in the optimistic scenarios projected by the Eurocrats.

Papandreou should have told them to stuff it two years ago.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 06:29:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Medicine for kids tastes bad so they don't overdose on it thinking it's candy. Otherwise you're saying the medicine is a placebo.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 06:30:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I remember back when I was a kid, getting sick was kind of a blessing. Sure, it sucked to be sick, but after you had actually gotten a bit better you could pretend being sick for a while so you could stay home from school! Unless, of course, your parents kept forcing you to take nasty medicine as long as you refused to go to school...

However, the important thing here is that the Merkel is acting the Schwabian housewife and is apparently thinking that Greece should be treated like an unruly child.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 01:13:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Strict parent morality and all that...

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 04:48:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
Europe is not suffering because of banker greed but because of the stupidity of the political elite.

the pols just do the wet work, and are disposable when their appeal to voters has run aground.

the banksters control them, immune from direct contact with the Great Unwashed.

if the bankers were bankers again, instead of candidates for Gamblers' Anonymous, Merkel would be off spanking someone else than the PIIGS.

why do you think german governesses were the rage all over europe?

because they were stricter.

anhedonism poses as moral superiority... if you're not miserable, you're not working hard enough and must suffer censure and reform.

that'll larn ya!

The power of knowledge is in mortal combat with the knowledge of power. It really is that simple... That's the Edenic apple we are all munching on.

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 06:32:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We need a European fiscal government, not a European fiscal governess...



guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 12th, 2012 at 06:46:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I am dubious of economists claims to expertise in economics, but their claims to expertise in politics and political marketing are even more absurd. Clearly Tsipras is no fool (it should go without saying, but I'll say it anyways, that that's not a claim of infallibility).

I had a bizarre discussion Max Sawicky, a "left" US economist in which I tried and failed to explain to him that his claim that Obama must go the the public and reiterate Sawicky's version of Keynes over and over was a claim about political marketing not about economics.

by rootless2 on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 10:07:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Morning Coffee
Max Sawicky has the best riff on Isaac Newton's old line that I have ever heard. He says that those modeling the international economy assuming perfect capital mobility are "standing on the shoulders of men in ditches. Very deep ditches."

Actually, depending on the version of Keynes being preached, having his ideas back in the mix is very much what we need and one of the advantages of the presidency is the bully pulpit. Keynes' ideas were pushed out of public discourse and have been discredited largely based on endlessly repeated propaganda from RW think tanks repeated by the MSM. The problem is that the current 'mainstream economics' makes discussion of alternatives almost impossible. That is not an accident.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 04:28:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But "the bully pulpit" is a meaningless cliche and Sawicky's (weak) economics does not give him any authority on how to convince the public. Politics is HARD. Very few people can master motivating voters at all. It's absurd to think that ones conviction that X is true is evidence that stating "X is true" over and over on TV is going to convince anyone else of anything. In this case, it's clear that Syriza leaders have a pretty good expertise in communicating with  the Greek public and I am skeptical of the superior skills in this area from an economist.

BTW: my economics disagreement with Sawicky is that I am unconvinced that the aggregate US government budget is well correlated to "Stimulative" effect and don't see any support for such a simplistic argument in Keynes. For example, a reduction of $20billion in costs for supplying gasoline to US troops in Iraq combined with a $5billion increase in US expenditures for green energy in domestic military bases would be Keynsian stimulative despite reducing aggregate budget by $15b.  Sawicky, angrily disagreed, but was unwilling to leave his slogans long enough to make a real case.

by rootless2 on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 06:18:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...

...

Even the crassest version of Keynesianism should understand that cutting 20 million off the foreign deficit and 15 off the sovereign deficit increases domestic aggregate demand by 5 million times the fiscal multiplier.

Sucks to be Saudi Arabia in that scenario, but that's not really America's problem...

- Jake

Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 07:05:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, you can imagine my exasperation on being called a neoliberal for pointing that out.
by rootless2 on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 07:45:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sawicky is now a government economist. That limits what he can say. It is not nice to contradict official policy.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 07:51:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
not correct.
by rootless2 on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 07:57:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Has he left government?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 08:06:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No - the context of this discussion was his critique of the government.
by rootless2 on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 08:08:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Link?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 09:28:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
mostly on twitter - after which he protected his account.

Send him a note @maxbsawicky

by rootless2 on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 10:18:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's absurd to think that ones conviction that X is true is evidence that stating "X is true" over and over on TV is going to convince anyone else of anything.

I will not disagree that absurdities abound. But that very approach worked very well from 1970, when, famously, we were all Keynsians to the present, when Keynes is almost a profanity to many and what passes for Keynes is a caricature. 'Mainstream economics' in the USA has been bought and paid for by wealthy conservative interests who control the universities through having a long history of sponsorship, and departments of economics are one of their chief concerns. Economists in these prestigious economics departments have a large influence on what can get published, and thus on the available range of thought in economics.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 08:01:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US political class sold stimulus spending to the public by wrapping it the flag and by channeling a large part of it to influential elites.
by rootless2 on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 08:08:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
AKA 'Military Keynesianism'. A problem with that is that it spends money creating things that (hopefully) will not be consumed domestically - like smart bombs, plutonium penetrators, aircraft battle groups, Marine Expeditionary Units, etc. Of course a portion of that force is used to maintain the tribute system Yanis Varoufakis describes in The Global Minotaur.

'Military Keynesianism' is employed, but not called such by most of the mainstream economists. There are much more effective forms of Keynsianism if they could make it into the paradise of fundable research, the gate to which is so jealously by the appointed reviewers and hiring committees of universities.  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 09:41:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The dynamic of SYRIZA is impressive and will be countered by possibly a "pro-memorandum" front.

Samaras is aiming for exactly that (does he want the neolib voters libe SYRIZA wants the Greens?):

Elections 2012: Live news blog, May 11 | Athens News

Targeting the Syriza party, which came in second in the elections of May 6, he charged that it was insincere before and after the election, saying it claims to want continued eurozone participation for Greece, on the one hand, but in practice does exactly the opposite. "If the situation forces an election against a powerful leftist anti-European front, then they will fall upon an even more powerful centre-right European front. This will be comprised of ordinary voters who either didn't vote (on May 6) or voted for smaller parties, and who today realise that the country must be governed," he said, before adding that "this (front) will be formed by the initiatives we are taking for unity for the entire centre-right (bloc)". 


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri May 11th, 2012 at 11:46:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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