Marine Le Pen will be beaten. The curious decision of the UMP to not run a candidate against her is the only reason she scored so highly (42%), and everyone else will back the PS candidate.

Collard (FN) will win if the UMP withdraws, will lose to the PS if they stay in the race. Simple as that.

Marion Maréchal-Le Pen will lose because the PS candidate, who came third, will withdraw, and the PS electors will tip the second round to the UMP.

(When her grandpa Jean-Marie came to support her, he made a quip about how his daughter and grand-daughter were both good candidates because they were "de bonne race"... he was the best stand-up comic on the political circuit, and I miss him already.)

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II}