Top Diaries

So, coalition poker:

Quisling coalition: ND+Pasok+DemLeft ~ 49 % of the vote, ~ 58 % of the seats.

Far-right coalition: ND+IG+Nazis ~ 45 % of the vote, ~ 54 % of the seats.

Joy.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 05:49:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm surprised how low the turnout is.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 05:50:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's decided now (4.00 / 5)

It is one of the sad effects that crises have on people. And one of the tragical consequences is that tends to give right wing parties more power with a cover of democracy, while in fact they don't care about people.

res humà m'és aliè

by Antoni Jaume on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 06:03:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's decided now (3.67 / 3)

I wonder whether election fatigue is setting in.

Looking at the numbers between May and today on the ministry of elections website, it looks like there are three groups of big losers:

There's a shakeup in the challenger parties, with support filing out of those that didn't make the threshold in May. Ecologists Greens and LaOS support was cut in half. Most likely these went to Syriza and Golden Dawn respectively.
Independent Greeks and PASOK down marginally, but an oversized impact in the number of seats.
Finally, it looks like KKE is collapsing, down 46% since May. With Syriza in play is KKE set to be pushed below the threshold in future elections? If there is another failure to form a government, and Greece is forced out of the euro, one of the principal differences between Syriza and KKE evaporates.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 06:12:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's decided now (4.00 / 4)

LAOS broke in half and one half went to ND (see talos upthread). The Nazis stayed level.

Turnout seems to be only about 2.7 percentage points lower than in May (which was 5.92 percentage points below 2009), but I expected it to increase.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 06:21:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm having a hard time seeing how any stable government is going to form from this mess.

151 seats is a majority.

With 97% of the vote in:

New Democracy 129
Syriza 71
Pasok 33
Ind. Greeks 20
Golden Dawn 18
Democratic Left 17
KKE 12

So grand coalition (New Democracy+PASOK) yields 162 seats. But, will Venizelos do this again? Will PASOK splinter if he does?

So coalitions of the right. New Democracy + Independent Greeks=149 seats. Another partner is needed. Will the Democratic Left join? Or will New Democracy openly recruit Nazis into their government.

On the Left, or anti-austerity. Even a "dream team" of Syriza+PASOK+Democratic Left only yields 121 sets. Either Independent Greeks or KKE alone don't make a majority. Together they only give 153 seats. A bare majority.

A grand coalition is the only workable government, and that seems like an open question. So are we on to round three?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 06:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My prediction: ND+Pasok, and Democratic Left will fold into it when it becomes clear that the Quisling coalition has the seats.

That will wipe out Pasok and Dem.Left in the next elections, but Pasok's parliamentarians are presumably down to the totally soulless apparatchiks and thoroughly corrupt clientilists, so they should be reasonably safe from defection during their term. Dem.Left is fishier - they're the venal opportunist wing of Pasok, so I would not bet money on them staying the course in any government, left right or center.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 06:52:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

From past rhetoric, I wouldn't expect New Democracy + Independent Greeks. The latter are attacking ND just like SYRIZA, with the sovereignity angle added. DIMAR, which expressed willingness to be part in any future coalition, would be more likely to go along with them...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 01:46:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is an artifact of bad book-keeping and immigration. Real turnout is at ~72-75%. From what I hear some significant part of the younger generation preferred the beach from the poll booths today.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 06:48:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's decided now (none / 0)

Any opinion on whether PASOK will do a national unity government with Syriza?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 06:53:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You mean without ND? Impossible.

SYRIZA has pre-empted any questions by stating that its sole aim is to try to be a great Official Opposition, thank you very much.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 07:13:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Actually, I was wondering if you thought PASOK would join a coalition with ND if SYRIZA didn't?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 08:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

SYRIZA will most definitely not join a coalition with ND. PASOK will. They're playing hard-to-get at this point but they will at least give them a confidence vote at the parliament. In which case DIMAR might do likewise

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 08:22:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In the campaign, Venizelos didn't tire telling that any future government should include SYRIZA. To me this implies some long-term thinking (longer than a month): a fear of losing even more voters.

Then again, now an implosion of SYRIZA is an option, too...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 01:48:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So ND can't form a government with PASOK, and PASOK won't form a government without SYRIZA.

Will a third round of elections really change anything?

Can things really wait another month? Or, will this only exacerbate current shortages at hospitals and the like? And, at what point does the troika begin to erect a financial cordon around the country?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 02:53:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm not 100% certain that Venizelos's pre-election insistence on including SYRIZA in the government will hold up after the elections. My most pessimistic scenario is that SYRIZA's failure to beat ND will turn its newest voters off and poll number erosion will set in, giving PASOK leaders a hope of re-gaining ground in spite of participation in a doomed pro-austerity government that has a substantial anti-austerity opposition. (But voters leaving SYRIZA could actually swing to the Nazis instead.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 03:33:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's decided now (4.00 / 7)

Standards of living will continue deteriorating, so that will not help the parties that will participate in the government. All of them also promised substantial renegotiation of the memoranda. This will not happen, although they might get a bone or two from the creditors.

PASOK will obviously participate in an ND-led government, and so will DIMAR probably. Otherwise they will lead the country to a third election and that threat was one of the accusations leveled against SYRIZA in the campaign period - that if it wins no-one will work with them and thus they will force the country to a third election.

SYRIZA's newest voters are unlikely to be budge in the short term as long as one of the things that unite them still is in place: austerity. The hatred of the ND/PASOK corruption will in all likelyhood be rekindled every few days or so. But in the long term the only thing that unites these voters is the person of Alexis Tsipras. This is very uncomfortable for a political space which frowned upon "leader-worship". So in the coming few months SYRIZA in its new extent will try to organize itself into something more coherent...

But PASOK is dead and ND scored its lowest percentage ever despite the campaign of fear and the near-total (and near-totalitarian) support it had from the MSM. The Nazis have not reached their possible maximum yet. Note that social reaction to this disaster has been limited these past few months as people were waiting to see what would come out of the elections... I don't think this moratorium will be in place for long... And I expect a strong and violent reaction to the Nazis continued murderous attacks against immigrants and leftists. Since the media will spin this in a "battle of extremisms" narrative, this can easily get out of hand...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 06:17:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Live news blog, June 18 | Athens News

That went fast.

9.39pm To wrap up today's events, the parties that broadly back the country's international bailout will agree to form a coalition government on Tuesday, a senior official with New Democracy party told Reuters on Monday. "We are going to clinch a deal tomorrow, we will form a government," the official, who declined to be named, said. The official said that Pasok party would appoint members in the next cabinet and also expressed hope that the Democratic Left, would take part.

These two sickos aren't bad guys from a James Bond parody, but hold the future of Greece:

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 05:24:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Live news blog, June 18 | Athens News

The Nazis have not reached their possible maximum yet.

Indeed. Our media elites are scaremongering about SYRIZA while such things happen now with a regularity:

4.42pm Golden Dawn "celebrated" their consolidating election performance yesterday with another attack on an immigrant. A Pakistani national was stabbed last night at Attiki train station. According to Vima, the attack took place at around 23.30, with eye witnesses, confirming the assault and the fact that the attackers were Golden Dawn supporters.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 05:29:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, things can wait another month. The EU will get really impatient but Greece is better off without a government than with a bad government. Tax collection has been suspended during the election prior to buy votes for the Troika, so people are doing a little better. The humanitarian catastrophe keeps advancing, but forming a pro-Troika government wouldn't have improved that.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 04:55:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

during the election ~~prior~~period, that is.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 06:26:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Do I sense a touch of cynism in that "Official Opposition" remark? If so, do you think SYRIZA shoud have done something else?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 01:44:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

NO, don't take it like that.

In multi-party systems, being the second voted party gives you that official designation.
Greeks call it "Official" because it's the party from the opposition that sets the tone with an actual chance of being an alternative to govern.

by Euroliberal on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 04:17:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh, well. Guess all that austerity hasn't been austere enough to impact "some significant part of the younger generation." The banksters are happy tonight.

by Marie2 on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 07:15:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's decided now (4.00 / 5)

It has impacted a lot of people to the point of total cynicism and resignation. Until a few months ago they were much more than they are today

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 08:24:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's decided now (4.00 / 5)

Maybe their resignation is the correct response and nothing matters. But unlike Americans and Egyptians, they weren't limited to choosing between economic rightwing and religio-economic rightwing. Next time they aren't likely to be so fortunate.

by Marie2 on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 10:11:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is an artifact of bad book-keeping and immigration

Could you say more on this? How are voters registered? Isn't there a differentiation between foreign residents and citizens?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 01:42:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's decided now (4.00 / 4)

Well dead people are not removed from the registers. There is a graph which I ca't find now that shows that the 70+ category in the electoral register is not only the largest but also larger than the 40-70 combined! My father (who died in 1997) and my uncle (who died in 1990) are still in the registers.

Add to that the fact that there are people in the registers who have emmigrated from Greece in the 50s-70s who are for all practical purposes foreign nationals but who still retain their citizenship and thus the right to vote. I made a brief calculation a few years ago using the available census data and I estimated that the actual people >18 living in Greece and having a right to vote is ~8,5 million

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 05:15:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Do the dead vote in large numbers?

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 07:11:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Heh, no. Not lately. That's how the abstention rate shoots up ;-)

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 07:54:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

On reflection and after the fact I'm not. They convinced enough people that the Left wouldn't be able to fix anything. They didn't convince them that the old system still had any legitimacy left.

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter

by generic on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 06:56:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Live news blog, June 18 | Athens News

The prefectures recording the lowest turnout were:
Florina 61%
Kefalonia 56.78%
Lakonia 55.89%
Evrytania 53.65%
Lesvos 54.43%
Why didn't people bother to vote. One of the explanations being put forward is that many people living in large cities but registered in ancestral villages didn't have the money to return home to vote. That would go in some way to explaining the low turnout in northerly Florina, which is on the border with Fyrom, and the islands of Kefalonia and Lesvos.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 04:35:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The "not enough money angle" is valid: SYRIZA tried with limited resources to overcome this by organizing car-pooling and cheaper hiring rates for buses. The prefectures listed above all have large numbers of people who have immigrated (see previous comment) in earlier decades. I just checked to see the official turnout in the 2007 elections and it was 52% in Lakonia 51% in Florina 52% in Kefalonia (it was 63% in 2000). In 2007 total official turnout in the whole country was at 74%. Now it is at 62,5%. So in these prefectures, relatively speaking, participation has increased considerably...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 05:37:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's decided now (none / 0)

I can't even imagine driving to my ancestral villages in Evrytania from Athens in order to vote. I get white knuckles just thinking about that road trip.

High mountain road and single lane passes of the sort I experienced in Italy, Spain and Greece scare the crap out of me.

by Upstate NY on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 09:37:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

North Americans are cowards. It used to be great fun to watch our Toronto cousins trying to drive - or, even better, sit as front seat passengers - on one and a half lane rural Irish roads.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 09:44:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Scotland is like that too. One great feature of these roads for Americans is that after a while you forget that you're supposed to be driving on the other side of this one lane....

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 10:09:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

that's why I liked the back seat in Grenadian private minivan buses going between Grenville and St. George.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 03:01:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]